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China’s real estate crisis isn’t over yet, IMF says

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BEIJING — China needs to do more in order to fix its real estate problems, the International Monetary Fund said Friday.

The property market contributes to about a quarter of China’s GDP and has been a drag on growth, especially since Beijing cracked down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.

Chinese authorities started to ease restrictions on financing for the sector over the last several months.

“Authorities’ recent policy measures are welcome, but in our view additional action will be needed in order to end the real estate crisis,” Thomas Helbling, deputy director in the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, said in a briefing.

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“If you look at the measures, a lot of them address financing issues for the developers that are still in relatively good financial health, so that will help,” he added in an interview with CNBC. “But the problems of the property developers’ facing severe financial difficulties are not yet addressed. The issue of the large stock of unfinished housing more broadly is not yet addressed.”

China is slowly coming back, Dassault Systemes CEO says

China is slowly coming back, Dassault Systemes CEO says

Apartments in China are typically sold to homebuyers before completion. Covid and financial difficulties slowed construction so much that some homebuyers halted their mortgage payments last summer in protest.

Chinese authorities subsequently emphasized the need to help developers finish building those pre-sold apartments. Still, residential floor space sold in China dropped by nearly 27% last year, while real estate investment fell by 10%, according to official numbers.

“I think it would be helpful to point to a way out and … how the restructuring could be done and who will absorb losses if there are any losses,” Helbling said. He also called for additional measures to address the large stock of unfinished apartments.

“Otherwise the sector will continue to slump and remain a risk and also constrain households that are overexposed to the property sector, and will have cash tied up and their savings tied up which will be a handicap for the broader economic recovery,” he said.

Helbling declined to name a specific timeframe within which authorities needed to act before the situation got much worse.

“The sooner you address downside risks the better.”

China says it’s not a crisis

The IMF analysis was part of the organization’s latest report on China, following annual discussions with Chinese officials that ended in November.

The officials pushed back on the IMF’s real estate assessment, according to a statement in the IMF report by Zhengxin Zhang, executive director for People’s Republic of China, and Xuefei Bai, senior advisor to the executive director, dated Jan. 12.

China’s property market has generally operated smoothly and “is not in a ‘crisis’ situation,” the statement said, casting the sector’s situation as “a natural evolution of ‘deleveraging and destocking’ in the past few years.”

“The related risks are local and only concern individual firms, and their impact on the rest of the world has been relatively small,” the central bank representatives said. Looking ahead, the Chinese side said they would work toward ensuring the delivery of completed apartments, and merging developers.

Chinese property developers such as Country GardenLongfor and R&F Properties have seen their shares nearly double or more over the last 60 trading days — about three months, according to Wind Information. But trading in shares of one-time giants Evergrande, Shimao and Sunac have been halted since March 2022.

The IMF report pointed out that a significant portion of investors in Chinese developers’ bonds have been affected.

“As of November 2022, developers that have already defaulted or are likely to default — with average bond prices below 40 percent of face value — represented 38 percent of the 2020 market share of firms with available bond pricing,” the report said.

“The sector’s contraction is also leading to strains in local governments. Falling land sale revenues have reduced their fiscal capacity at the same time as local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have also significantly increased land purchases.”

The IMF on Monday raised its global growth expectations for the year due to better-than-expected growth in major countries late last year, softening inflationary pressures and the end of China’s Covid controls.

The new 2.9% forecast for the world is 0.2 percentage points better than anticipated in October. But it’s still a slowdown from 3.4% growth in 2022.

For China, the IMF projects growth of 5.2% this year, faster than the 3% pace in 2022.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.

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Billions of dollars in commercial real estate loans are due; here’s why you should care – KARE11.com

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Billions of dollars in commercial real estate loans are due; here’s why you should care  KARE11.com

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How distress in office real estate could ripple out into the markets – Axios

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Animated illustration of a desk out in the desert with a tumbleweed blowing by.

Illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios

Office vacancies — plus the still simmering banking crisis — have us considering what a potential bust in the $6 trillion U.S. office property market might mean.

Why it matters: A deep downturn in property values is more than a problem for oligarchs, feuding billionaire clans and oil-rich foreign wealth funds.

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State of play: Office utilization is still low compared to the before-times, with WFH and hybrid set-ups now standard for millions of former office drones.

By the numbers: Nearly 30% of companies still have remote or hybrid options — though that’s come down from 40% in 2021, the latest government data shows.

  • Utilization — how many people actually use the offices that their companies rent — is down roughly 50% from pre-COVID levels, according to swipe-card systems operator Kastle Systems.
  • Office building appraisal values were down 25% in February compared to a year prior, according to a Goldman Sachs note that cites research shop Green Street.
  • Office rents — especially in large cities with lengthy commutes — have fallen, too.

The latest: Signs of stress are picking up, with delinquencies on commercial office mortgages touching 2.4% in February, up from 1.5% six months ago, according to Trepp. Defaults are starting to appear as well.

The impact: The value of commercial property produces anywhere between 20% and 40% of tax revenues for states and localities.

  • If those revenues fall, governments will have to cut services, raise taxes, or both, making cities less attractive.

Meanwhile, smaller banks are big lenders to real estate developers, putting them at risk if office defaults spike.

  • Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that banks hold roughly half of the $5.6 trillion in commercial property mortgages outstanding, with the overwhelming majority of that half held at small banks.
  • Many of those same regional banks have been under pressure since Silicon Valley Bank failed. With deposits migrating to larger institutions — or simply to higher-interest accounts like money markets — they’ll have less capacity to refinance loans on office properties.

  • Property loans typically need to be refinanced every five to seven years — and failure to refinance or pay off the loan can result in a default. When that happens, the debt gets renegotiated, and the lender often takes losses.
  • If defaults pile up, it could worsen the pressure on office building values and make banks leerier of making office loans — exacerbating the defaults and the banks’ losses.

Finally, pension funds have also sunk billions into real estate in recent years. The top 200 institutional managers owned about a half-trillion worth of real estate in 2022, according to trade publication Pensions & Investments.

  • “How those real estate portfolios of buildings are doing, will then affect, in the end, returns which these pension funds are getting. And that will also affect households which are dependent on these pension funds,” says Vrinda Mittal, a Ph.D. candidate in finance and economics at Columbia Business School who has studied private real estate investments.

The bottom line: We’re still in the early stages of the post-COVID era for offices, and how it will shake out is the trillion-dollar question.

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B.C. real estate: 2 resort properties on sale for $8.25M

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A pair of sprawling resort properties in B.C. – complete with a hotel, ski runs and lifts, lakefront cabins, a campground, and a pub – are on sale for less than the price of some Vancouver tear-downs.

Colliers has listed the Powder King Ski Resort and its “sister property” The Azouzetta Lake Resort for $8,250,000. It’s being billed as a “once in a lifetime opportunity” to purchase the two properties, which are located at the base of the Pine Pass in Northeastern B.C.

The properties are remote, located 67 kilometres east of Mackenzie and 195 kilometres north of Prince George.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

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The ski resort, according to the listing, has been rated number 1 for snow in Canada, getting an average of 12 metres of snowfall each winter. In total, there are 364 hectares of skiable terrain, comprised of 37 runs serviced by three lifts.

Accommodations at the ski resort include a 50-room hotel, two cabins for staff, a lodge with a licensed pub and a cafeteria. The possibility for expansion is built in, the online listing says, noting the resort has a master plan with the province.

“There is a three-phase development plan which allows for land acquisitions, real estate development, commercial development, ski runs, lifts, and summer recreation activities,” the realtor’s website says.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

The second resort is roughly six kilometres away from the ski resort, situated on the “pristine,” 340-acre Azouetta Lake. The property includes several rustic but fully equipped A-frame cabins, RV sites, a campground, and on-site accommodations for a manager.

“The lake supports rainbow trout and an array of natural wildlife as well as numerous recreational opportunities such as kayaking, canoeing and boating as well as mountain biking, hiking, and other pursuits nearby,” the description from Collier’s says.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

The property also has a gas station, a convenience Store and a restaurant called Café 97 which is open seven days a week, year-round.

A video tour of the property shows more of what it has to offer.

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