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John Robson: Here's a plan for the post-COVID economy: Get government out of the way – National Post

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In addition to a schedule for reopening the economy we also evidently need a map. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be one in the glove compartment, nor is there a reliable app. Instead it’s like one of those Renaissance deals with “Here be dragons.” So I’ve drawn one on a napkin.

It says “Focus on the medical aspects and reread ‘I, Pencil.’ ” Pencils may have gone mechanical, or for all I know digital, since Leonard Read penned (penciled?) his classic essay back in the slide rule era. But as the economy has only grown more complex since 1958, let alone 1850 when Frédéric Bastiat wrote Harmonies Économiques, their central insight has only become more valid.

For those not fortunate enough to have been forced to read his piece years ago, Read has a humble lead pencil explain that making it required the co-operation of an astounding global network from the loggers who cut the trees to those who made their chainsaws and coffee to the metallurgists who created the “ferrule.” Even this mundane object requires a web of interactions so complex no human brain could contain it all. Including that the people who made the ships carrying the loggers’ coffee beans themselves use pencils.

Focus on the medical aspects and reread ‘I, Pencil.’

No person or people can understand and guide such a process. Nor could any computer. It’s literally “transcomputable.” Which is why central planning can’t work. Including here.

It is tempting to think “restarting the economy” resembles restarting a ship from drydock. Especially for politicians who’ve long believed the economy is a machine they can rev up at will, and a fairly simple one at that, it seems intuitively like a linear task: Boot up the emergency generators, activate critical command and control systems, start main engines, turn on bilge pumps and so on down to lighting and air circulation in crew quarters. But economies are enormously more complicated, with feedback loops no one can hope to comprehend.

Luckily in market economies nobody needs to. As Read said, prices compress all the information any individual person needs to figure out whether something is worth more to them than it costs or not. I was going to write “producer or consumer” instead of “person” but we are almost all both at once.


Customers entering a T&T Supermarket in Markham, Ont., get a temperature scan to check for precautionary signs of COVID-19 on April 20, 2020.

Jack Boland/Postmedia News

For the same reason it’s not possible for anyone to know what’s “essential” or isn’t. As John Locke wrote before Read, Bastiat or even the Industrial Revolution, the very “bread we eat” requires “the labour of those who broke the oxen, who digged and wrought the iron and stones, who felled and framed the timber employed about the plough, mill, oven, or any other utensils” etc.

So do not attempt to decide which restaurant, hair salon or bicycle shop should be allowed to reopen or why. (Just kidding — in Ontario bike shops were apparently “essential” all along, unlike marinas or jury trials.) Do not try to determine who should make the fiddly plastic bits needed to get groceries to market or when. Just try to figure out who has COVID-19, who might get it and what to do about them.

The key job of the public authorities now is public health. And surely it’s enough to tax the capacity of any group of mortals. Focus on how to test, track and quarantine the infected so the second wave is not a disaster. Not to prevent it; it is inevitable. And don’t go locking down the economy again.

Focus on how to test, track and quarantine the infected so the second wave is not a disaster

Also, don’t go placing too much faith in epidemiological models. It’s not that they’re so unsophisticated the U.K. was relying on undocumented code 13 years old, although that revelation would embarrass lesser beings than the experts in charge. It’s that human conduct is too complex to model. (And don’t get me started on climate.)

When I was nearly finished scribbling on my napkin, a map from Britain’s Adam Smith Institute worthy of high-class velum not increasingly scarce wood pulp reached my inbox. It said: “The economic heart of the nation has slowed, and it needs major and urgent action to revive it. … We look not to those on high to save us, but ideas and initiatives from the little platoons Edmund Burke correctly said made up a nation … Companies stand on the edge of ruin and our prosperity with them. … So we want to hear from you of every tax cut that can lift a burden, and every regulatory change that can lighten the load on businesses that want to grow again. Let us hear of every bureaucratic impediment that stands in the way of renewed growth and expansion, and let us hear of the ways in which it might be suspended or permanently extinguished.”

There’s your map. Get government out of the way of the economy and into the way of the disease. And the sooner the better.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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