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Kyle Dubas should return as Maple Leafs GM (if he wants to stay). But not without changing

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11 months ago

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Let’s dive right into this: Kyle Dubas should return as Maple Leafs general manager.

He’s the best GM the Leafs have had in the last 20 years and it’s not really all that close. (Who’s No. 2?)

One serious caveat: Will the Leafs make a commitment that entices him to stay? That seems like an important part of this whole conversation. A short-term deal may not do it for Dubas, not when there are other jobs available now and jobs to be had down the line. More autonomy is sure to be a requirement for him as well.

If he does end up sticking around, Dubas is going to have to adjust what he’s doing in ways big and small to guide the Leafs far beyond where they’ve gone to this point. Which is one playoff round in the last five seasons.

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Dubas’ five-year anniversary was on Thursday.

He’s been creative as GM, with help from No. 2 in command Brandon Pridham. What he’s not been, not enough to this point anyway, is cutthroat in his approach. And the road ahead, the road just this summer, is going to require a Leafs GM who is willing to make a series of cold, hard decisions, the queasy but necessary variety required in pro sports.

Dubas hasn’t always been that guy. He’ll need to summon his inner Steve Yzerman and give no f—s after all this.

Example No. 1: Replacing, potentially, the only coach he’s hired as GM at any level. Dubas was willing to fire Mike Babcock 23 games into the 2019-20 season. He didn’t hire Babcock. There was no connection there, no bond, no shared view of things. Sheldon Keefe is different that way, much different.

He’s Dubas’ guy.

Dubas hired Keefe to coach the Soo Greyhounds.

Dubas hired Keefe to coach the Toronto Marlies.

Dubas hired Keefe to replace Babcock, even with zero NHL coaching experience.

Is Dubas now willing to part with someone he’s that close to, if the organization deems it necessary (which seems likely)? Is he willing to be objective about the job that Keefe did, which includes all kinds of regular season success but also four disappointing playoff results which mostly saw the team and their stars contained?

Example No. 2: Is he willing to make hard decisions with his star players, starting with John Tavares?

Will he, for example, at least broach the possibility of Tavares waiving his no-movement clause?

Is he willing to be more like his Lightning counterpart, Julien BriseBois, that is? After three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final, and two Cups, BriseBois asked Ryan McDonagh to waive his no-trade clause amid a Lightning cap crunch and roster shuffle. He did this three days after the Lightning lost to the Avalanche in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.

There was even talk (never confirmed) of the Lightning considering asking captain Steven Stamkos to waive his no-movement clause at one point earlier in Tampa’s run.

Is Dubas willing to have an uncomfortable conversation like that, potentially?

Kyle Dubas with John Tavares and his family on Jan. 29, 2023, the day he played in his 1000th NHL game (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)

Let’s be clear: It’s hard to imagine there being much interest for a soon-to-be 33-year-old pulling down $11 million on the cap for the next two seasons. But the possibility should, at the very least, be explored given Tavares’ age and production. Will Dubas insist that Tavares move to the wing next season? Might he go a step further and consider a change with the captaincy in the way that other similarly disappointing playoff teams did — i.e. the San Jose Sharks?

If a) there’s no interest in Tavares league-wide (likely) and/or b) no willingness on Tavares’ part to move (likely), then what about Mitch Marner and William Nylander, two players he’s stood firmly behind in the past?

Will he consider moving one of them?

The Leafs can’t possibly bring back everyone at the top, not after their fifth straight playoff failure with Tavares (who missed most of the 2021 playoffs), Marner, Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Morgan Rielly all on board.

Is Dubas finally willing to take, maybe not a hammer, but a scalpel to the core and make serious alterations by trading one big star?

He would have been well within his rights to make a change like that after the Leafs unraveled against the Habs in 2021, or even the Blue Jackets a year earlier. He didn’t. Instead, he backed the core players even more forcefully.

It’s hard to see any way around that possibility this time. A move of that magnitude needs to be executed well for the Leafs to go on contending, which isn’t always easy in a league that tends to (in my opinion) undervalue stars in trades.

Though it’s admirable in many ways, Dubas has mostly acquiesced to the stars. He went all the way to the brink on Nylander’s second contract — and ended up with value (Nylander’s $6.9 million contract ranked 86th in the NHL this season). But he wasn’t willing or able to extract concessions from either Matthews or Marner on their second deals.

Matthews’ pact was only for five years, but still came with an $11.6 million cap hit which trailed only Connor McDavid when it was signed. Marner’s deal lasted only six years and was also no discount at $10.9 million. And while both Matthews and Marner have outperformed those contracts (in the regular season anyway) to this point, the Leafs were unable to pull even more value from those deals in the way that other clubs did with their talented young players.

Even McDavid, while netting the highest cap hit in the league ($12.5 million) on his second deal, was willing to sign for the full eight years in Edmonton.

The Leafs, under Dubas and Shanahan, also didn’t jump on those deals as aggressively as they should have.

Can Dubas extract more from Matthews on his next contract, if not in term than in dollars, or vice-versa? He won’t have the leverage of restricted free agency. He won’t have the leverage of anything, really. Can he convince Matthews to stay?

Nylander has no reason to accept less on his next deal either, not after the last one. He too can sign an extension this summer.

Marner will be up for an extension in the summer of 2024.

Kyle Dubas on Dec. 1, 2018, the day that William Nylander agreed to his second contract (David Berding / USA Today)

Dubas will need to somehow execute those deals more adeptly than he did the last ones.

If the Leafs aren’t willing to commit big bucks to Nylander ASAP, it feels likeliest that he’s the guy to go, even after his 40-goal regular season.

Dubas is probably misunderstood somewhat as this trust-the-numbers-and-only-the-numbers guy. He’s much more than that. It’s often forgotten that he started scouting as a teenager in the OHL. He’s also prioritized the people he believes in and knows, overly so at times.

There’s no better example of that than Matt Murray.

Health had been an issue for Murray throughout his entire NHL career, including in Ottawa last season. Dubas traded for him anyway last summer, an enormous risk even back then, and allowed the Senators to get away with paying only 25 percent of Murray’s contract. (What were they going to do with Murray if the Leafs didn’t bite?)

That was $4.7 million in cap space allocated on a goalie who played in 26 games, none in the playoffs, and who is under contract for next season.

Dubas had Murray in Sault Ste. Marie. So did his goalie guru Jon Elkin. The Leafs bet on the person, more than what was so clear-cut in the available evidence at the time. Dubas, if he stays, will presumably have to pay a price to rid the Leafs of Murray’s contract (or keep him and bet that he stays healthy all over again).

It feels icky to mention the Jake Muzzin situation. But in the end, the Leafs stood by an aging, increasingly injury-prone defenceman after the 2021-22 season and then had to pay assets to replace him at the trade deadline.

Instead of using those assets on a premium upgrade (Dmitry Orlov, say), they went with a lesser version (Jake McCabe) who had term on his contract and came at the reduced rate of $2 million.

That hurt the Leafs in the playoffs, when McCabe, predictably, struggled in the kind of primetime playoff role he literally had never had before.

Dubas was trying to address the present and future at a time when all that mattered was the present.

All of this may sound like reason to move in a direction with the GM of the Leafs. But it’s not. Because, for the most part, Dubas has been highly effective. He’s built the Leafs into a very modern organization, ensuring that players have everything they need in just about every way possible. (Talk to many people outside the organization and they all say the same thing.) There was no skill development program with the Leafs before Dubas replaced Lou Lamoriello as GM. There wasn’t the same emphasis on mental health or sport science. Dubas pumped the Leafs up on every front.

And while it’s easy to shrug at that stuff now, what it’s done is provide players with everything they could possibly need to reach their potential. (Ultimately, those players have to do their part and perform.)

Dubas has shown a knack for unearthing overlooked talent. Think Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, Jack Campbell, Trevor Moore, Justin Holl, and even Muzzin, among others. (The Leafs wisely signed Bunting and Kämpf to two-year contracts two summers ago, which netted them real value under the cap for two seasons, not one.)

He’ll need to do even more of that gem-sifting this summer (again, if he sticks around), what with so many pending UFAs, and in the years ahead, with all that draft capital gone in all that trade deadline activity. (The Leafs need some of the prospects they have drafted already to hit. Matthew Knies and Joseph Woll look promising at the very least.)

Dubas has swallowed mistakes quickly (i.e. Nick Ritchie, Petr Mrazek etc.) and crucially, showed a willingness to evolve. In the beginning, he seemed to believe that skill would solve every problem. In time, he began to prioritize the more intangible qualities required for success in the postseason (which, again, hasn’t come yet) and scored with additions like that at this past deadline — notably, Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, and Luke Schenn.

Also of note: When they signed their stars, Dubas’ Leafs anticipated a rising cap. They didn’t get it, but still managed to build very good (regular season) teams, top-five teams in the league. Regular season success may not mean squat to anyone right now, but it should matter in the broader evaluation of the GM. The Leafs own the fifth-best points percentage in the league (.651) during Dubas’ tenure. His squads weren’t trying to squeeze into the playoffs like those of his predecessors. No, they were dominant teams in the league.

You don’t need long to gaze around the league and see how poorly other teams are run. How poorly, in other words, the Leafs might be run with a lesser GM. Heck, have a look back on those teams that preceded Dubas, even the ones run by Lamoriello, when some mind-boggling decisions were made that caused huge problems for the organization (i.e. Nikita Zaitsev’s contract, which still has one more year left on it…!).

Dubas hasn’t been perfect. No GM is. He can still improve. He has already. He’s still only five years into his career as an NHL GM. He needs to continue evolving. But he should keep this job if he wants it.

(Top photo: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images)

 

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Canucks start new playoff tradition and Dakota Joshua got first honour | Offside – Daily Hive

Published

9 hours ago

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April 22, 2024

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Good Co. Bars is your home for the playoffs! Enjoy $5 beers, prizes, a full game-day experience, and the best atmosphere to catch the game. Join us at any of our five locations.

The Vancouver Canucks revealed the debut of a new playoff tradition after last night’s exciting Game 1 comeback win against the Nashville Predators.

The team has created a win tracker in the shape of the Stanley Cup to commemorate their victories as they go through this year’s playoffs, the first non-COVID postseason for the Canucks since 2015.

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The Stanley Cup tracker has space for 16 pucks, one for each win needed on the journey to capture the sport’s ultimate trophy. The player of the game, after each win, gets to place a puck into an empty slot.

Winger Dakota Joshua earned the honour of inserting the first puck after a huge performance in Game 1.

“We’re going to start a little tradition here, 16 pucks, 16 wins,” explained captain Quinn Hughes after the team’s big Game 1 comeback victory. “[Could] give it to Demmer, he made some big saves, Lindy, way to get us going, but this is going to Playoff D!”

“One of 16, let’s f**king go,” Joshua said as he placed the puck into the tracker.

The bruising power forward deserved the honour as he scored twice, including the game-winner, and added an assist in the Game 1 victory. Thatcher Demko and Elias Lindholm also had big games, as Hughes alluded to during his mini-speech before picking the winger as the player of the game.

Joshua’s contributions helped the Canucks take a 1-0 series lead on a truly special night at Rogers Arena. The crowd was the loudest than it had been in years.

The team will have the chance to add another puck to the Stanley Cup tracker tomorrow night when they take on the Predators in Game 2. The puck drops at 7 pm PT.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins — Game #2 Preview, Projected Lineups & TV Broadcast Info – Maple Leafs Hot Stove

Published

10 hours ago

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April 22, 2024

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Following a frustrating Game 1 in which many familiar playoff issues reared their ugly heads, the Maple Leafs will need a cleaner and tighter performance in Game 2 if they’re to bring the series back to Toronto tied at 1-1 (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet, CBC, ESPN).

The reactions to Game 1 on both sides of the spectrum have been… well, reactionary. On the one hand, the Leafs also got blown out in Game 1 a year ago against the Tampa Bay Lightning, yet rebounded to win the series in six games. On the other hand, the Leafs are now 2-7 in Game 1s in the Matthews era and just 1-5 since Sheldon Keefe took the reins as head coach. To state the obvious, a 0-1 series deficit makes a difficult task — one that the Leafs have only completely successfully once in the last 20 years — that much more difficult.

It’s also true that the five-on-five play was a lot closer than the final Game 1 scoreline reflects. Even if we removed the third period when score effects were in full swing at 4-0, Natural Stat Trick pegged the 5v5 expected goals at 2.03-1.88 in favor of Toronto, and shot attempts were 29-28 Bruins over the opening 40.

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The Leafs gave the Bruins five power-play opportunities, and it wasn’t only a case of some dodgy officiating. The Leafs took some sloppy penalties, including one from each member of the top line, with Tyler Bertuzzi and Auston Matthews taking high-sticking calls in front of the Bruins’ net. They also were off to a positive start to the game before giving up a 2-on-1 goal, and on the PK, Jake DeBrusk’s goal was far too easy. Those are the types of looks the Bruins simply did not afford the Leafs over the course of the game.

The other big storyline continues to be the Leafs’ infamous streak of scoring two goals per game in the playoffs (now at eight games). Some of the challenges were due to Jeremy Swayman, and some were Toronto’s offensive approach in the game. The (possibly) good news is that one of the team’s best offensive weapons was on the ice this morning and is not ruled out for tonight.

William Nylander was seen at the Leafs’ optional skate Sunday morning with the Leafs’ projected scratches and again participated in the morning skate on Monday. With all due respect to Nick Robertson, he’s nowhere near the calibre of the play-driving threat Nylander is both at five-on-five and on the power play. On paper, a new-look third line of Järnkrok-Holmberg-Nylander could give the Bruins some matchup headaches after Game 1 played out in a fairly straightforward manner for Jim Montgomery.

As was the case in Game 1, with Keefe staying mum in the media, we won’t know for sure about Nylander until close to puck drop.

Maple Leafs’ Keys to Game 2

via Anthony Petrielli

– The Bruins have scored first in all five games this season, and the Leafs have not led a single game at any point. The first goal would provide Toronto with some confidence and allow them to settle down.

– The Leafs need to play more north/south and attack the net. There was too much east-west in Game 1.

– There was a lot of focus on the PK, the defense, and the goaltending after Game 1, all of which are real issues, but the Leafs have eight goals in five games vs. Boston this season. Cut it any way you want, but the Leafs are not going to win consistently with that poor of an offensive output. They need to get inside on Boston, crash the net, shoot more, and win battles in front of the net.

–  The Leafs’ penalty kill needs to do a better job of pressuring. They can’t allow a player like Jake DeBrusk to curl up top with the puck, go downhill, and shoot untouched. That’s far too easy.

– The Leafs need to limit time in the box and not get carried away physically or with the overall emotions of the game.

–  Put simply, the Leafs need some saves and for their stars to be stars. The Bruins’ top players have outplayed the Leafs’ in all five games so far this year. In Game 1, Boston got away with matching Brandon Carlo vs. Auston Matthews. It is very difficult for any team in the league to win when its best players don’t deliver.

Game Day Quotes

Jim Montgomery on his starting goalie for Game 2:

I don’t like keeping you guys in the dark. Do any of you play Wordle? The starting goalie tonight has two vowels in his first and last name.

Montgomery on why he keeps his goalie decision tight to his chest:

I don’t know why we would divulge information. If you are preparing for a game, there are parts of the goaltender that are a part of your pre-scout. That is an advantage for us, right? We don’t know who is starting.

I don’t tell my wife. I am not telling [the media].

Montgomery on what he is hoping to repeat about the team’s Game 1 performance:

I liked our physicality. That has to be repeated. I liked how we got over top of people. We didn’t give up too much off the rush. That is really important against such an electric offensive team.

Sheldon Keefe on the expectation for his team in Game 2:

I expect our team to come out and play hard, play well, and play — in a lot of ways — like we did the other night. Just make a few fewer mistakes and finish a few of our chances. We don’t have to change much more than that. Quite honestly, we liked a lot of things about our game. We just have to get back to it.

Keefe on shifting Tyler Bertuzzi onto PP1:

Bert is good around the net. It gives you a second guy similar to John in the sense that he can hound the puck and be good around the net. That is really it.

Keefe on the message to Max Domi after his slashing penalty in Game 1:

It is playoff hockey. I don’t even have to talk to Max about these things. He has been through it a lot. It is all part of the intensity. I don’t need Max to change anything about who he is and how he plays.

He is an important guy for us. I love the intensity he brought the other night. He got caught on a penalty. Their guy is probably going to give the same slash 10 times over the rest of the series. We’ll see if he gets called on it.

I love Max’s intensity.

Keefe on the group of six defensemen he’s started the series with, with TJ Brodie on the outside looking in:

We looked at how the season has gone, how the group has come together, how the pairs fit, the opponent, and the type of matchups and intensity you expect early in the series. Those are the guys we are going with.

Head-to-Head (Regular Season) Stats: Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

In the regular-season statistics, the Leafs hold the advantage over the Bruins in five out of five offensive categories, but the Bruins hold the advantage in three out of five defensive categories.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines*

Forwards
#59 Tyler Bertuzzi – #34 Auston Matthews – #11 Max Domi
#23 Matthew Knies – #91 John Tavares – #16 Mitch Marner
#89 Nick Robertson – #29 Pontus Holmberg – #19 Calle Jarnkrok
#24 Connor Dewar – #64 David Kampf – #75 Ryan Reaves

Defensemen
#44 Morgan Rielly – #46 Ilya Lyubushkin
#2 Simon Benoit – #22 Jake McCabe
#20 Joel Edmundson – #37 Timothy Liljegren

Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#60 Joseph Woll

Extras: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, Conor Timmins, Noah Gregor, Martin Jones, Cade Webber
Injured: Bobby McMann, William Nylander

Boston Bruins Projected Lines*

Forwards
#43 Danton Heinen – #18 Pavel Zacha – #88 David Pastrnak
#63 Brad Marchand – #13 Charlie Coyle – #74 Jake DeBrusk
#94 Jakub Lauko – #39 Morgan Geeke – #11 Trent Frederic
#19 John Beecher – #70 Jesper Boqvist – #61 Patrick Maroon

Defensemen
#27 Hampus Lindholm – #73 Charlie McAvoy
#48 Matt Grzelcyk – #25 Brandon Carlo
#22 Kevin Shattenkirk – #52 Andrew Peeke

Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Linus Ullmark
#1 Jeremy Swayman

Extras: James van Riemsdyk, Parker Wotherspoon, Mason Lohrei
Injured/Out: Justin Brazeau, Milan Lucic, Derek Forbort

*Note: At playoff time, with neither coach forthcoming on lineup decisions or injury situations, the final lineups won’t be known until close to puck drop.

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Nylander could be out again for Maple Leafs in Game 2 of Eastern 1st Round – NHL.com

Published

12 hours ago

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April 22, 2024

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BOSTON — William Nylander will not play for the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on Monday because of an undisclosed injury.

The 27-year-old forward had participated in the morning skate after missing Game 1 of the best-of-7 series on Saturday, a 5-1 loss. Despite taking the ice with the full team Monday, he did not participate in line rushes and stayed on for extra skating with projected scratches.

Nylander also did not participate in special-teams drills. Forward Tyler Bertuzzi was elevated to the top power-play unit, while forward Calle Jarnkrok moved down to the second unit. Toronto went 0-for-3 with the man-advantage Saturday, and its only goal came from David Kampf on the fourth line.

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Nylander played all 82 games in the regular season, finishing with an NHL career-high 98 points (40 goals, 58 assists), which ranked 10th in the League. His offensive ability was missed in Game 1, but his teammates said they received a boost just by seeing him on the ice Monday.

“Obviously, a really good sign,” Maple Leafs captain John Tavares said. “We know what he means to our hockey club, so obviously great that he was out there.”

After Game 1, Keefe and multiple players pointed to how Toronto overcame key absences during the regular season, and it’ll have to do the same in Game 2 with Nylander unavailable.

“They’re taking care of him, so it’s [only] a matter of time until he’s back in the lineup,” Maple Leafs forward Nicholas Robertson said. “We’ve got to do what we can without him and hopefully get a win tonight.”

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