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Kyle Dubas should return as Maple Leafs GM (if he wants to stay). But not without changing

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Let’s dive right into this: Kyle Dubas should return as Maple Leafs general manager.

He’s the best GM the Leafs have had in the last 20 years and it’s not really all that close. (Who’s No. 2?)

One serious caveat: Will the Leafs make a commitment that entices him to stay? That seems like an important part of this whole conversation. A short-term deal may not do it for Dubas, not when there are other jobs available now and jobs to be had down the line. More autonomy is sure to be a requirement for him as well.

If he does end up sticking around, Dubas is going to have to adjust what he’s doing in ways big and small to guide the Leafs far beyond where they’ve gone to this point. Which is one playoff round in the last five seasons.

Dubas’ five-year anniversary was on Thursday.

He’s been creative as GM, with help from No. 2 in command Brandon Pridham. What he’s not been, not enough to this point anyway, is cutthroat in his approach. And the road ahead, the road just this summer, is going to require a Leafs GM who is willing to make a series of cold, hard decisions, the queasy but necessary variety required in pro sports.

Dubas hasn’t always been that guy. He’ll need to summon his inner Steve Yzerman and give no f—s after all this.

Example No. 1: Replacing, potentially, the only coach he’s hired as GM at any level. Dubas was willing to fire Mike Babcock 23 games into the 2019-20 season. He didn’t hire Babcock. There was no connection there, no bond, no shared view of things. Sheldon Keefe is different that way, much different.

He’s Dubas’ guy.

Dubas hired Keefe to coach the Soo Greyhounds.

Dubas hired Keefe to coach the Toronto Marlies.

Dubas hired Keefe to replace Babcock, even with zero NHL coaching experience.

Is Dubas now willing to part with someone he’s that close to, if the organization deems it necessary (which seems likely)? Is he willing to be objective about the job that Keefe did, which includes all kinds of regular season success but also four disappointing playoff results which mostly saw the team and their stars contained?

Example No. 2: Is he willing to make hard decisions with his star players, starting with John Tavares?

Will he, for example, at least broach the possibility of Tavares waiving his no-movement clause?

Is he willing to be more like his Lightning counterpart, Julien BriseBois, that is? After three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final, and two Cups, BriseBois asked Ryan McDonagh to waive his no-trade clause amid a Lightning cap crunch and roster shuffle. He did this three days after the Lightning lost to the Avalanche in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.

There was even talk (never confirmed) of the Lightning considering asking captain Steven Stamkos to waive his no-movement clause at one point earlier in Tampa’s run.

Is Dubas willing to have an uncomfortable conversation like that, potentially?

Kyle Dubas with John Tavares and his family on Jan. 29, 2023, the day he played in his 1000th NHL game (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)

Let’s be clear: It’s hard to imagine there being much interest for a soon-to-be 33-year-old pulling down $11 million on the cap for the next two seasons. But the possibility should, at the very least, be explored given Tavares’ age and production. Will Dubas insist that Tavares move to the wing next season? Might he go a step further and consider a change with the captaincy in the way that other similarly disappointing playoff teams did — i.e. the San Jose Sharks?

If a) there’s no interest in Tavares league-wide (likely) and/or b) no willingness on Tavares’ part to move (likely), then what about Mitch Marner and William Nylander, two players he’s stood firmly behind in the past?

Will he consider moving one of them?

The Leafs can’t possibly bring back everyone at the top, not after their fifth straight playoff failure with Tavares (who missed most of the 2021 playoffs), Marner, Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Morgan Rielly all on board.

Is Dubas finally willing to take, maybe not a hammer, but a scalpel to the core and make serious alterations by trading one big star?

He would have been well within his rights to make a change like that after the Leafs unraveled against the Habs in 2021, or even the Blue Jackets a year earlier. He didn’t. Instead, he backed the core players even more forcefully.

It’s hard to see any way around that possibility this time. A move of that magnitude needs to be executed well for the Leafs to go on contending, which isn’t always easy in a league that tends to (in my opinion) undervalue stars in trades.

Though it’s admirable in many ways, Dubas has mostly acquiesced to the stars. He went all the way to the brink on Nylander’s second contract — and ended up with value (Nylander’s $6.9 million contract ranked 86th in the NHL this season). But he wasn’t willing or able to extract concessions from either Matthews or Marner on their second deals.

Matthews’ pact was only for five years, but still came with an $11.6 million cap hit which trailed only Connor McDavid when it was signed. Marner’s deal lasted only six years and was also no discount at $10.9 million. And while both Matthews and Marner have outperformed those contracts (in the regular season anyway) to this point, the Leafs were unable to pull even more value from those deals in the way that other clubs did with their talented young players.

Even McDavid, while netting the highest cap hit in the league ($12.5 million) on his second deal, was willing to sign for the full eight years in Edmonton.

The Leafs, under Dubas and Shanahan, also didn’t jump on those deals as aggressively as they should have.

Can Dubas extract more from Matthews on his next contract, if not in term than in dollars, or vice-versa? He won’t have the leverage of restricted free agency. He won’t have the leverage of anything, really. Can he convince Matthews to stay?

Nylander has no reason to accept less on his next deal either, not after the last one. He too can sign an extension this summer.

Marner will be up for an extension in the summer of 2024.

Kyle Dubas on Dec. 1, 2018, the day that William Nylander agreed to his second contract (David Berding / USA Today)

Dubas will need to somehow execute those deals more adeptly than he did the last ones.

If the Leafs aren’t willing to commit big bucks to Nylander ASAP, it feels likeliest that he’s the guy to go, even after his 40-goal regular season.

Dubas is probably misunderstood somewhat as this trust-the-numbers-and-only-the-numbers guy. He’s much more than that. It’s often forgotten that he started scouting as a teenager in the OHL. He’s also prioritized the people he believes in and knows, overly so at times.

There’s no better example of that than Matt Murray.

Health had been an issue for Murray throughout his entire NHL career, including in Ottawa last season. Dubas traded for him anyway last summer, an enormous risk even back then, and allowed the Senators to get away with paying only 25 percent of Murray’s contract. (What were they going to do with Murray if the Leafs didn’t bite?)

That was $4.7 million in cap space allocated on a goalie who played in 26 games, none in the playoffs, and who is under contract for next season.

Dubas had Murray in Sault Ste. Marie. So did his goalie guru Jon Elkin. The Leafs bet on the person, more than what was so clear-cut in the available evidence at the time. Dubas, if he stays, will presumably have to pay a price to rid the Leafs of Murray’s contract (or keep him and bet that he stays healthy all over again).

It feels icky to mention the Jake Muzzin situation. But in the end, the Leafs stood by an aging, increasingly injury-prone defenceman after the 2021-22 season and then had to pay assets to replace him at the trade deadline.

Instead of using those assets on a premium upgrade (Dmitry Orlov, say), they went with a lesser version (Jake McCabe) who had term on his contract and came at the reduced rate of $2 million.

That hurt the Leafs in the playoffs, when McCabe, predictably, struggled in the kind of primetime playoff role he literally had never had before.

Dubas was trying to address the present and future at a time when all that mattered was the present.

All of this may sound like reason to move in a direction with the GM of the Leafs. But it’s not. Because, for the most part, Dubas has been highly effective. He’s built the Leafs into a very modern organization, ensuring that players have everything they need in just about every way possible. (Talk to many people outside the organization and they all say the same thing.) There was no skill development program with the Leafs before Dubas replaced Lou Lamoriello as GM. There wasn’t the same emphasis on mental health or sport science. Dubas pumped the Leafs up on every front.

And while it’s easy to shrug at that stuff now, what it’s done is provide players with everything they could possibly need to reach their potential. (Ultimately, those players have to do their part and perform.)

Dubas has shown a knack for unearthing overlooked talent. Think Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, Jack Campbell, Trevor Moore, Justin Holl, and even Muzzin, among others. (The Leafs wisely signed Bunting and Kämpf to two-year contracts two summers ago, which netted them real value under the cap for two seasons, not one.)

He’ll need to do even more of that gem-sifting this summer (again, if he sticks around), what with so many pending UFAs, and in the years ahead, with all that draft capital gone in all that trade deadline activity. (The Leafs need some of the prospects they have drafted already to hit. Matthew Knies and Joseph Woll look promising at the very least.)

Dubas has swallowed mistakes quickly (i.e. Nick Ritchie, Petr Mrazek etc.) and crucially, showed a willingness to evolve. In the beginning, he seemed to believe that skill would solve every problem. In time, he began to prioritize the more intangible qualities required for success in the postseason (which, again, hasn’t come yet) and scored with additions like that at this past deadline — notably, Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, and Luke Schenn.

Also of note: When they signed their stars, Dubas’ Leafs anticipated a rising cap. They didn’t get it, but still managed to build very good (regular season) teams, top-five teams in the league. Regular season success may not mean squat to anyone right now, but it should matter in the broader evaluation of the GM. The Leafs own the fifth-best points percentage in the league (.651) during Dubas’ tenure. His squads weren’t trying to squeeze into the playoffs like those of his predecessors. No, they were dominant teams in the league.

You don’t need long to gaze around the league and see how poorly other teams are run. How poorly, in other words, the Leafs might be run with a lesser GM. Heck, have a look back on those teams that preceded Dubas, even the ones run by Lamoriello, when some mind-boggling decisions were made that caused huge problems for the organization (i.e. Nikita Zaitsev’s contract, which still has one more year left on it…!).

Dubas hasn’t been perfect. No GM is. He can still improve. He has already. He’s still only five years into his career as an NHL GM. He needs to continue evolving. But he should keep this job if he wants it.

(Top photo: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images)

 

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Washington Capitals 3-2 win ends Dallas Stars’ winning streak

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome and Taylor Raddysh scored to help the Washington Capitals end the Dallas Stars’ season-opening winning streak at four with a 3-2 victory Thursday night.

Wilson’s goal was his third in three games, Strome his second of the season and Raddysh his first since joining the team in free agency last summer. Charlie Lindgren made 22 saves as the Capitals wrapped up this early homestand with back-to-back wins.

The Stars fell from the ranks of the league’s unbeaten teams despite a short-handed goal by Colin Blackwell and one at even strength from Jason Robertson. Rookie Oskar Bäck set up Blackwell for his first NHL point.

Casey DeSmith was screened on two of the three goals he allowed on 26 shots.

LIGHTNING 4, GOLDEN KNIGHTS 3

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Nikita Kucherov scored the winning goal with less than a minute to play just 1:27 after Brandon Hagel had tied it and Tampa Bay rallied to beat Vegas.

Kucherov’s second goal of the game with 55 seconds left was his sixth of the season.

Janis Moser had a goal and two assists for the Lightning, who remain unbeaten. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 22 saves.

Brayden McNabb, Pavel Dorofeyev and Ivan Barbashev had goals for Vegas. Adin Hill turned aside 21 shots.

Jack Eichel, with two assists on Thursday, now has 10 points this season in five games and reached reached double-digit points faster than any other player in Vegas history. He is the 10th U.S.-born player to accomplish the feat.

After Barbashev put Vegas up 3-2 early in the second, Hagel pulled Tampa Bay even at 3 with 2:22 remaining in the third.

BLUE JACKETS 6, SABRES 4

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Kirill Marchenko and Mathieu Olivier each had a goal and an assist and Daniil Tarasov made 21 saves to help Columbus to a win over Buffalo.

Yegor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli, Zachary Aston-Reese and Damon Severson also scored for Columbus, and Zach Werenski added two assists.

Ryan McLeod, Owen Power and JJ Peterka scored for Buffalo, and Jiri Kulich added his first NHL goal. Devon Lev stopped 19 shots for the Sabres (1-5-1), who have lost two straight road games and five of their first six overall.

CANUCKS 3, FLORIDA 2, OT

SUNRISE, Fla. (AP) — J.T. Miller scored 2:09 into overtime and Vancouver got their first win of the season, beating Florida.

Teddy Blueger and Quinn Hughes had goals for Vancouver, with Kevin Lankinen stopping 26 shots.

Anton Lundell got his fourth goal in the last three games for Florida and Jesper Boqvist also scored for the Panthers, who got 30 saves from Sergei Bobrovsky.

Florida remained without forwards Aleksander Barkov (lower body) and Matthew Tkachuk (illness).

DEVILS 3, SENATORS 1

OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) — Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 shots and lost his shutout bid in the final minutes as New Jersey beat Ottawa.

Erik Haula, Nathan Bastian and Paul Cotter scored for the Devils, who won for the third time in four games and improved to 5-2-0.

The Senators, who were coming off an 8-7 overtime victory against Los Angeles on Monday, struggled to beat Markstrom.

Brady Tkachuk was the only scorer for the Senators, beating Markstrom, with a power-play goal with 65 seconds remaining in the third period.

Anton Forsberg, making his second straight start and hoping to rebound after getting pulled Monday, made 32 saves in the loss.

Haula opened the scoring early in the second period and Bastian added a short-handed goal, giving New Jersey a 2-0 lead after 40 minutes. Cotter scored midway through the third.

RANGERS 5, RED WING 2

DETROIT (AP) — Artemi Panarin had his eighth career hat trick and New York rolled to a victory over Detroit.

Panarin became the first Rangers player to have multiple points in the first four games of a season. He scored twice on the power play. Vincent Trocheck also had a power- play goal and assisted on all of Panarin’s goals.

Jonathan Quick made 29 saves in his season debut. Victor Mancini also scored.

The Rangers have won the last five meetings, including twice this week. New York had a 4-1 home victory over Detroit on Monday night.

Moritz Seider and J.T. Compher scored for Detroit. Red Wings goalie Cam Talbot was pulled in the second period after allowing five goals.

KINGS 4, CANADIENS 1

MONTREAL (AP) — David Rittich made 26 saves a night after being benched in the second period in Toronto, helping road-weary Los Angeles snap a three-game losing streak with a victory over Montreal.

Los Angeles improved to 2-1-2 on a season-opening, seven-game trip necessitated by arena renovations.

Rittich rebounded after allowing four goals on 14 shots in a 6-2 loss to the Maple Leafs. Alex Laferriere, Mikey Anderson, Andreas Englund and Adrian Kempe scored.

Justin Barron scored for Montreal (2-3-0). Sam Montembeault stopped 28 shots. He made a save on Kevin Fiala on a penalty shot.

BLUES 1, ISLANDERS 0, OT

ST. LOUIS (AP) — Joel Hofer made 34 saves and assisted on Jake Neighbours’ goal at 2:04 of overtime in St. Louis victory over New York.

Hofer had his second career shutout in his and the team’s second overtime victory of the season.

Philip Broberg carried the puck into the New York zone and made a centering pass to Neighbours for the winner.

Islanders goalie Ilya Sorkin made 29 saves.

Blues defenseman Nick Leddy sat out because of a lower-body injury, the first game he has missed this season. Leddy played in all 82 games last season.

OILERS 4, PREDATORS 2

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Brett Kulak scored twice and Connor McDavid added his first goal of the season to lead Edmonton to a victory over reeling Nashville.

Jeff Skinner also scored and Calvin Pickard made 25 saves for the defending Western Conference champion Oilers, who have won consecutive games after beginning the season with a three-game skid.

Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault scored and Juuse Saros made 32 saves for Nashville (0-4).

Forsberg’s goal midway through the first period gave Nashville its first lead of the season. That lasted less than six minutes before Kulak tied it.

Kulak sealed it with an empty-netter in the final minute for the defenseman’s first career two-goal game.

BLACKHAWKS 4, SHARKS 2

CHICAGO (AP) — Tyler Bertuzzi and Nick Foligno each scored a power-play goal, and Chicago beat San Jose.

Taylor Hall and Jason Dickinson also scored for Chicago. Connor Bedard and Teuvo Teravainen each had two assists.

Hall, who missed most of last season because of right knee surgery, put the Blackhawks in front 4:20 into the first period. It was Hall’s first goal since Nov. 5 and No. 267 for his career.

Tyler Toffoli and Fabian Zetterlund scored for San Jose, which trailed 3-0 early in the second. William Eklund and Mikael Granlund had two assists each.

The Sharks dropped to 0-2-2 under Ryan Warsofsky, who was promoted to head coach in June.

Petr Mrazek had 20 saves for Chicago, and Vitek Vanecek made 23 stops for San Jose.

KRAKEN 6, FLYERS 4

SEATTLE (AP) — Eeli Tolvanen, Jordan Eberle, and Shane Wright scored three goals in less than three minutes in the second period and Seattle held off a Philadelphia rally in a victory.

Tolvanen’s goal broke a 2-2 tie at the 14:57 mark. Eberle made it a two-goal game with a goal at 17:44. Eight seconds later, Wright scored to give Seattle a three-goal lead.

Jared McCann tied the game at 2-2 with the first of Seattle’s four second-period goals.

Cam York and Jamie Drysdale scored to pull Philadelphia within 5-4 in the third period, but Oliver Bjorkstrand responded with a goal to push Seattle’s lead to two with just over five minutes left in the game.

Scott Laughton scored twice for the Flyers in the first period, while Brandon Montour scored one in for the Kraken.

Chandler Stephenson had an assist in his 500th NHL game. Seattle’s Philipp Grubauer had 21 saves.

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Canada’s Dabrowski, New Zealand’s Routliffe out of Japan Women’s Open after walkover

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OSAKA, Japan – Canada’s Gabriela Dabrowski and New Zealand’s Erin Routliffe are out of the Japan Women’s Open tennis tournament.

Spain’s Cristina Bucsa and Romania’s Monica Niculescu advanced to the final on Thursday by way of walkover.

The fourth seeds were supposed to play the top-seeded Dabrowski and Routliffe in the semifinals.

Bucsa and Niculescu will next face third-seeded Ena Shibahara of Japan and Laura Siegemund of Germany in the final.

Dabrowski and Routliffe defeated Japan’s Shuko Aoyama and Eri Hozumi in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4 on Wednesday to advance.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mountain West commissioner says she’s heartbroken over turmoil surrounding San Jose State volleyball

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LAS VEGAS (AP) — Mountain West Conference Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday the forfeitures that volleyball teams are willing to take to avoid playing San Jose State is “not what we celebrate in college athletics” and that she is heartbroken over what has transpired this season surrounding the Spartans and their opponents.

Four teams have canceled games against San Jose State: Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State and Wyoming, with none of the schools explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.

A group of Nevada players issued a statement saying they will not take the floor when the Wolf Pack are scheduled to host the Spartans on Oct. 26. They cited their “right to safety and fair competition,” though their school reaffirmed Thursday that the match is still planned and that state law bars forfeiture “for reasons related to gender identity or expression.”

All those schools, except Southern Utah, are in the Mountain West. New Mexico, also in the MWC, went ahead with its home match on Thursday night, which was won by the Spartans, 3-1, the team’s first victory since Sept. 24.

“It breaks my heart because they’re human beings, young people, student-athletes on both sides of this issue that are getting a lot of national negative attention,” Nevarez said in an interview with The Associated Press at Mountain West basketball media days. “It just doesn’t feel right to me.”

Republican governors of Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming have made public statements in support of the cancellations, citing a need for fairness in women’s sports. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee in this year’s presidential race, this week referenced an unidentified volleyball match when he was asked during a Fox News town hall about transgender athletes in women’s sports.

“I saw the slam, it was a slam. I never saw a ball hit so hard, hit the girl in the head,” Trump replied before he was asked what can be done. “You just ban it. The president bans it. You just don’t let it happen.”

After Trump’s comment, San Diego State issued a statement that said “it has been incorrectly reported that an San Diego State University student-athlete was hit in the face with a volleyball during match play with San Jose State University. The ball bounced off the shoulder of the student-athlete, and the athlete was uninjured and did not miss a play.”

San Jose State has not made any direct comments about the politicians’ “fairness” references, and Nevarez did not go into details.

“I’m learning a lot about the issue,” Nevarez said. “I don’t know a lot of the language yet or the science or the understanding nationally of how this issue plays out. The external influences are so far on either side. We have an election year. It’s political, so, yeah, it feels like a no-win based on all the external pressure.”

The cancellations could mean some teams will not qualify for the conference tournament Nov. 27-30 in Las Vegas, where the top six schools are slated to compete for the league championship.

“The student-athlete (in question) meets the eligibility standard, so if a team does not play them, it’s a forfeit, meaning they take a loss,” Nevarez said.

Ahead of the Oct. 26 match in Reno. Nevada released a statement acknowledging that “a majority of the Wolf Pack women’s volleyball team” had decided to forfeit against San Jose State. The school said only the university can take that step but any player who decides not to play would face no punishment.

___

AP college sports:

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