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Is it just me or is life starting to feel a little normal again?
The Toronto real estate market, having boomed for the better part of the pandemic, is finally taking a rest
Is it just me or is life starting to feel a little normal again?
Summer is in full swing, restaurants are open for business, and vaccines are now pretty easy to come by.
The pandemic is far from over, but still there’s a subtle ease to life again that feels good.
Perhaps it was this week’s announcement that the federal government would be moving forward with reopening the Canada-US border in early-August.
Or the news that Ontario’s colleges and universities would be returning to in-person classes this fall.
Things are inching back to a pre-pandemic status quo.
The Toronto real estate market, having boomed for the better part of the pandemic, is finally taking a rest. Things are quiet. It’s lovely.
Which begs the question: what comes next?
While most experts agree that it was a combination of low interest rates, pent-up demand, and changing buyer priorities that joined forces to drive sales to record levels, even through multiple stay-at-home orders, the undercurrent of it all has been something entirely more structural.
A healthy balanced market is when, simply put, there is an equal level of buyers and sellers.
When there are more sellers than buyers, you have a “buyer’s market.”
When you have more buyers than sellers, you have a “seller’s market.”
Broadly speaking, with the exception of a few blips along the way, Toronto has been a seller’s market for as long as I have been in the business.
In the neighbourhoods popular with upsizing young families, bidding wars are simply the norm.
And why is that? Some might say that it’s because of the widely adopted practice of underpricing as a means of driving multiple offers.
And while, yes, that certainly brings more buyers to the table and thus adds an overt layer of competition, that’s not it. It’s just a symptom of the broader issue.
And this issue is this: if we had sufficient supply in the city of Toronto to meet demand, our current market conditions would be vastly different.
They wouldn’t be spilling out into the secondary markets around us.
The pandemic just shone a light on what has been a mounting reality: our population has grown faster than our housing supply and our government has failed to address it.
At 1.8 million homes behind the G7 average, Canada falls dead last in the number of housing units per 1,000 residents.
Frustratingly, the top-down solutions to this impending crisis have been interruptions to the demand cycle: playing with interest rates, tightening lending qualifications, introducing non-resident speculation and vacancy taxes.
These are Band-Aids. At best they are tools to be used to slow things down while the real solutions come down the pike. We need density. We need intensification. We need thoughtful, strategic building policies that marry environmental responsibility with pragmatic solutions to sprawl.
Instead, the most recent federal budget promised an additional $2.5B over five years to address affordable housing via their Rapid Housing Initiative.
This is a drop in the bucket.
We need expedience not hand wringing.
If government flipped a switch tomorrow it would still take four to five years to see the housing units come to market. The time was yesterday.
So, for those wondering what comes next in our real estate market, it’s a safe bet that once people have enjoyed their summer of reprieve from the strange pandemic reality we find ourselves in, the market will reawaken.
It will simply have to in order to meet the return of students and the backlog of immigration produced by almost 18 months of closed borders. The demand-driven rental and condo sectors that have “softened” and “balanced” these past months will surely surge.
And it was predictable. Market forces, while undeniably complicated and nuanced, have a few inescapable fundamentals – until we prioritize sufficient supply to meet demand, housing unaffordability will be the norm. That part isn’t rocket science.
On Twitter: @brynnlackie
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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