Real eState

Only recent homebuyers feeling crunch of rising interest rates

Published

2 years ago

December 4, 2022

Harry Miller

Real estate for-sale sign. Photo by Stock art /Toronto Sun

Holiday parties are back this year, baby.

And while the novelty of having somewhere to wear my party shoes again has yet to wear off, the cocktail party conversations remain the same as they ever were: the weather, holiday plans, upcoming travel and, of course, the real estate market.

This is Toronto, after all.

Would you believe me if I said there are people who, presumably in an effort to make benign small talk, ask me how the real estate market is and seem genuinely surprised to hear that things are rocky at the moment?

They indicate a vague awareness that interest rates are going up and slowing things down, but seem shocked to hear what that’s shaking out to mean in terms of the fall from February’s highs.

“It seems like things are sitting, huh?”

That was last night.

Confirms what I have long suspected:

Firstly, that Twitter bears very little resemblance to real life. Amen. Because, of course, if one were to extrapolate the state of things based on my (admittedly real estate heavy) Twitter feed alone, one would likely feel certain the world was ending.

And second, that unless you’re a recent buyer with a variable rate mortgage feeling the crunch of the rising rates, you’re probably busy living your life.

Your house may be worth substantially less than it might have been valued at last winter, but to you that was never real since even with the correction it’s likely still up substantially from what you paid.

Unless you’ve bought, sold or refinanced, that gain was entirely theoretical — you were living in your home, not tinkering with your net worth abacus in real time.

Based on what I can tell from a solid two weeks of mixing and mingling, the people who seem to be uncomfortably straddling the two worlds at the moment are the Boomers sitting with a substantial portion of their wealth tied up in their homes. For those whose retirement plans centred upon cashing out and downsizing, perhaps renting a nice bungalow somewhere, the outlook isn’t looking great.

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Now there’s an entirely uncertain timeline to contend with. We can’t be sure where the bottom is, when we might finally hit it, when the recovery might start to begin, and when, if ever, we might see prices like that again.

The rental market is tighter than it’s ever been, making the prospect of making a move both daunting and unappealing.

And to add a whole other layer of complexity to the situation, given how unaffordable the market has been for first-time homebuyers, the number of their parents who have pulled equity to help out with a downpayment is probably not surprising at this point. So we’re not actually just talking about people sitting on pots of illiquid gains — they’re also sitting on liabilities.

So the question is what should they do and when should they do it?

Of course, the answer is that I don’t know — it really depends.

But I will say that like seemingly all else in this period of uncertainty, kicking the can down the road and hoping things will miraculously improve in the spring doesn’t seem particularly promising.

Bah humbug indeed.

@brynnlackie

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Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

1 week ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Real eState

Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

3 weeks ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Real eState

Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

4 weeks ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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