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LACKIE: Pandemic puts strength of T.O. real-estate market on display – Toronto Sun

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For anyone who has been following Toronto real estate over the course of the pandemic, it may  come as a surprise to hear the increasingly popular theory that the worst is likely over and, shockingly, the Toronto market appears to have emerged largely unscathed.

At least that is what the May sales figures, released this week by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, appear to suggest.

Even with less than half of the inventory, the average sale price for the GTA has risen 3% from the same month last year. That means that even with a global pandemic, turmoil in the economy, record unemployment, and an industry shutdown to contend with, the Toronto real-estate market has held.

Some analysts suggest that this is further proof of its seemingly eternal strength and resiliency.

It’s mind-boggling, yes, but it also seems to be true.

When the pandemic first set in and Toronto real estate, gearing up for what was predicted to be a record-breaking spring market, appeared instead to hurtle directly off a cliff, there was widespread uncertainty yet no shortage of predictions about what was likely to come.

Personally, I anticipated a sharp decline in house prices as the buyer pool went into isolation, downward pressure on rents, and more inventory on the condo market as investors dumped their units.

In a way, I almost welcomed it — the rise in prices we’ve witnessed over the past decade is all but prohibitive to the majority of first-time buyers trying to get onto the Toronto property ladder, and certainly incompatible with allowing for much economic diversity in our city.

And in the early days of the shutdown, it seemed like these predictions might bear out. Three months later, it’s clear that I missed the mark. Yes, we’ve seen a decline in average rents for one- and two-bedroom apartments but that’s about it.

If you look past the low volume of sales, directly correlated to the low volume of new listings, the Toronto market is back to functioning largely as it always has.

Even with Ontario still only partially reopened, buyers are back. Property showings have almost doubled, the average number of days-on-market is back on track, and houses are selling, though not at the pre-pandemic pace.

What is most needed is more inventory: Buyers are looking, now comfortable with donning masks and gloves for showings and likely spurred on by record-low mortgage rates. Even bidding wars have returned.

The big question: Will this upward trend continue or is it simply the rally before the true correction?

It is undeniable that COVID-19 has wrought untold havoc on the economy. Unemployment is at a record level, entire sectors of the workforce are still on standby waiting to return to their jobs, and temporary measures intended to cushion the blow are still in place.

Canada’s COVID-19 emergency benefits are still paying out, federal economic stimulus money is still flooding the economy, and nearly $200-billion worth of Canadian mortgage payments have been deferred.

What comes when the stimulus money stops flowing? Will that be when the true economic impacts of the pandemic are finally realized and when the real-estate market should brace for impact?

My thinking is no, probably not.

Assuming the money tap is turned off slowly and reopening is done in such a way as to avoid another lockdown, there’s such overwhelming demand to live in Toronto that even if a whole segment of would-be buyers are now out, there are countless others willing to take their place.

Buyers are willing to assume the risk because there’s zero doubt that in the mid- to long-term, this will just be a blip in property values.

That spring market that I thought had vanished? Definitely delayed — it’s going to be a busy summer.

— Lackie is a second-generation Sales Representative with Chestnut Park Real Estate and has been helping her clients navigate the challenging Toronto market since 2011

@brynnlackie 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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