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LACKIE: Sellers in uncharted waters hoping real estate heats up in fall – Toronto Sun

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You can feel it. The air is starting to get crisp in the evenings. The summer fun section at the store has quietly given way to school supplies and fall decor.

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September is upon us.

Once upon a time that meant it was real estate season. With the kids finally back to school and everyone else back to the office, normal rhythms and routines would resume, and the market would come back to life after a hazy summer.

Now, the past few years have really been the exception — COVID brought a heat and fury to the market that blew through all historical norms, seasonal or otherwise.

But after the summer we’ve just had with the real estate market at a standstill as it grapples with the pressure of rising interest rates, many are hoping our market fundamentals aren’t upended but just on pause.

The buyers haven’t disappeared, they’re travelling, silly — one need only look to Instagram to see that everyone and their mother appears to have headed to Europe to bask in the joys of life after lockdowns.

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So as we hold our breath to see what lies ahead, what magic is it that we are expecting for September?

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Well, if you’re someone with a house to sell you’re hoping that the serious buyers return to the marketplace. The idea that in the span of six months you completely missed hitting a bank robber price on your house is a tough one to swallow.

And so the magical thinking persists.

The age old refrain of, “If I don’t hit my number, I’m not selling,” is a booming chorus at the moment. The core belief being that February prices are a baseline that will return, one need only wait long enough. We don’t have sufficient supply, after all, and the immigrants are coming! Everything is going to be fine, just fine.

But what happens in the meantime when we’ve seen prices trending downward, week over week?

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Let’s say, for example, that you’re approaching retirement and counting on the equity in your house to fund your next act. Of course you’re going to be reticent. People who had houses to sell in spring 2020 faced the same conundrum and those who held were rewarded handsomely.

But what if that lightening doesn’t strike twice? You can wait and wait but if the tide doesn’t turn quickly enough, the week-over-week declines persist, and the recovery seems far off, at what point is the smart play to take what the market will give you?

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I had an agent hoping I was bringing an offer on his property last week defend his price by telling me, “Let’s be serious, this would have sold in 12 offers back in February.” As if that’s relevant right now.

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Now, it goes without saying that we’re supposed to fight for our clients perception of value — I would likely say the same thing — but does that even matter any more? The run-up was absurd. Using a period of absurdity to anchor an only slightly less absurd price doesn’t in and of itself establish a value.

Sellers and their perception of value is no longer the most relevant factor.

Buyers and their sentiments are what matter from here on out.

And that is why what happens on the other side of Labour Day will mean everything.

So what is it we think will happen in September? Well, based on conversations I am having with colleagues, we all have clients waiting in the wings.

Sellers waiting for a more favourable time and buyers looking for more variety as they see what deals are to be had. For many buyers who are witnessing what’s happened to prices, the idea of getting such a steep discount to February pricing seems to matter more than the higher rates, which everyone assumes (rightly or wrongly) will be relatively short-lived.

Even if the market picks up — and an all but guaranteed further rate hike by the Bank of Canada at their September meeting will certainly take some wind out of those sails — we are in uncharted waters.

All bets for what comes next are off.

@brynnlackie

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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