Several weeks back, when I first wrote that my colleagues and I were starting to see some undeniable signs of life returning to the Toronto real estate market, it was hard to believe what I was seeing, let alone saying.
Real eState
Toronto real estate market springs back to life
At that point, it was noteworthy to see, but such cases by and large felt like wild outliers — the market was still pretty quiet and mostly depressing. Few transactions, prices holding firm enough to keep affordability at bay, everything on pause.
But in the weeks that followed, particularly in the recent days following March break, the true starting point of the spring market, a pattern emerged. Anything halfway decent, priced reasonably close to market value, was drawing buyers out off of the sidelines.
If someone had told me a year ago that we could see this kind of action at these kind of price points with interest rates on the other side of 5%, I would have struggled to believe it.
While the year-over-year data clearly paints a picture of a sharp market correction over the past twelve months with sales down 36.5% and average price down 14.6% from March 2022, this is not news — what’s noteworthy is seeing that transactions have increased month-over-month, and average sale price, now at $1,108,606 is trending upwards both on an actual and a seasonally-adjusted basis.
New listings are up, average days on market has decreased, list-to-sale ratio is up — all signifiers that something has shifted and the market has come back to life.
Uncertainty decimated it all.
This has to be something more. Even if it’s still virtually unrecognizable from what we might historically expect to see in a typical March market.
Could it be that we are looking at a spring market further compounded by pent-up demand? We already saw how impactful just three months of lockdown was to bottle-up demand and drive market activity that first COVID summer. Now, how about a year?
Will there be sellers who have spent the last year feeling like they missed their shot to cash out feeling like now is the time? An increase in inventory would do a lot to unlock the chessboard.
For my clients who have properties they want or need to sell but thought they would wait until the fall, my advice to them is almost invariably not to wait. If momentum has returned, let’s catch the wave. Sure, buyer confidence seems to have improved, but markets are volatile — there are multiple factors impacting the world and the economy that could interrupt this upswing.
The question will be is this a blip of momentum that will fizzle or has the tide turned?
My prediction: market activity will increase while prices grind sideways straight into a quiet summer. For prices to tick meaningfully upwards again, rates will need to come down. For now, all we should be hoping for is an increase in sales.
What a difference a year makes.
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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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