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LACKIE: Will interest rates drop and reignite real estate market in 2024?

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We may see some demand return to the market place in the new year but the demand will be tempered by consumer restraint

How many of us are counting down the days until we can turn a new page and leave 2023 in the past?

This year has been a rollercoaster – and not the fun kind.

But as the year winds down it feels like there may be some cautious optimism out there, particularly in the real estate market, an arena still recovering from the bends of the high highs and low lows served up though the pandemic to today.

When inflation roared up and interest rates first started ticking upwards, everyone knew the party was over. I don’t think, however, that anyone expected the rates to go so high so quickly. They certainly didn’t expect them to stay there.

Soon there was tacit acceptance that “higher for longer” was to be the name of the game and it was like we all collectively leaned into the reality that in all sorts of ways, those sunny days of yore were firmly in the rear-view.

Now that it seems the central banks may really be done, the real question has become when we might see the first interest rate reduction.

Already we have narratives being spun that we are about to witness the market ignite once again. The central assumption seeming to be that while these elevated rates have been horrendous for affordability, the real problem has been consumer confidence in a falling market.

Even if one could comfortably swing the payment on a prospective property, the idea that they could be catching a falling knife with a market in free fall doesn’t do much to motivate a buyer.

Instead, the boosters insist, the bottom is in – smart to get out there before competition returns and prices shoot up again.

Could that happen? I mean, maybe?

After months upon months of demand being seemingly non-existent, it’s hard not to notice the number of properties with fresh, new sold riders just in the past week. Unexpected to see a week before Christmas after an absolute snoozer of a fall market.

The inventory that we all saw as such a cause for concern has been steadily absorbed week-over-week. Evidently there were people waiting for a sign that the worst was over, and between Tiff Macklem and Jerome Powell, it would seem that sign is upon us.

Except of course for the reality that our economy isn’t faring particularly well – we fell short of expectations with 0% GDP growth in October.

Should even a mild recession be what’s next – and some would insist that it’s now – concerns around job stability will trump the real estate market FOMO each and every time. And what of a not-mild recession?

We also don’t know how many would-be sellers have been hedging their bets and waiting for the new year to list their properties. A deluge of supply, even in conjunction with an increase in buyers, will serve as headwind and keep prices down.

I don’t like making predictions, particularly in a format that may well exist on the interwebs in perpetuity. But my feeling is that while we are likely to see some demand come back to the market place in the new year as a result of fixed rate mortgages coming down off of the highs, this demand will be tempered by consumer restraint for a good long while.

Too much is at play. And these past 18-months have shown us exactly what the stakes are.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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