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Lagging Real Estate Stocks Have Dropped Too Far, Analysts Say – BNN Bloomberg

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7 months ago

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(Bloomberg) — Wall Street analysts see a double-digit upside potential for the S&P 500’s biggest losers this year: real estate stocks. 

All that may be needed to turn the group’s fortunes around, say investors and analysts, is firmer conviction that long-term borrowing costs have plateaued and will head lower. That notion got a boost on Friday after a weaker-than-forecast report on the US labor market caused Treasury yields to tumble.

Analysts covering the industry’s stocks expect a 16% rally in the group in the next 12 months, based on Thursday’s closing levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And for the sector’s most troubled names — real estate investment trusts — analysts see 15% upside potential during that time. 

Real estate stocks are coming off of their worst monthly pullback in nearly two years, a slump that came as Treasury yields rose to the year’s highest levels. The group breached its most oversold signal in nearly six months in mid-April, before paring some of the declines.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday essentially ruled out an interest-rate cut in the near term, a move that would’ve helped a rate-sensitive sector that depends on debt for business.   

To Janus Henderson Investors’ Gregory Kuhl, the latest interest-rate meeting may have been an upside catalyst for the group. Policymakers left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and indicated a willingness to keep borrowing costs elevated for longer rather than raising them again, easing concerns of investors in the beaten-down real estate sector.  

“From where listed REITs are currently priced, I don’t believe the market needs to expect rate cuts for REITs to deliver solid performance. If the market reaches a solid consensus that rate hikes are off the table, that may be enough to get REITs going,” Kuhl, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said by email. “It did seem like Powell took rate hikes off the table, which I think is a positive for REITs.”

Historically, REITs haven’t fared well when Treasury yields rise, generally underperforming the S&P after a 100-basis point jump in the 10-year Treasury rate over roughly a median of 170 days. But after yields stabilized, REITs generally rebounded as much as 9% in the next 90 to 180 days, according RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Carroll.

“The jury’s still out on what happens in this type of environment,” he noted. “But if rates stabilize, REITs could do well and you can start to value them on fundamentals again.” Carroll sees opportunity in industrial, senior housing, single family rentals and data centers REITs. 

Still, there are plenty of challenges ahead, including depressed levels of merger-and-acquisition activity.

For now, real estate stocks are being held hostage by the Fed, but for those with a long horizon, the sector’s valuation discount could offer an attractive buying opportunity, said Kuhl. The S&P 500 Real Estate Index is trading at 33 times projected 12-month earnings, an 18% discount to its 10-year average. 

If rates go down, multiple expansion coupled with dividend yield growth could be a tailwind for the sector, Kuhl said, similar to the fourth quarter of last year. He expects an 8 to 9% total return for REITs this year, in line with historical averages. He sees forward strength in self-storage, data centers and cell tower landlords. 

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Unlock Reliable U.S. Real Estate Opportunities with Oak Street Partners

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1 day ago

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November 20, 2024

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OAK STREET PARTNERS UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES  FOR CANADIAN INVESTORS IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

Oak Street Partners is leading the way in cash-flow-focused U.S. affordable housing investments

TORONTO, ON | NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – With the Canadian real estate market facing challenges and declining opportunities for investors, Oak Street Partners, a Toronto-based private real estate investment firm, is offering a new avenue for Canadian investors to diversify into the U.S. rental housing market. Oak Street Partners enables investors to passively invest in U.S. affordable housing, providing them with stable, cash-flow-focused returns while helping meet the growing demand for quality, affordable housing in the United States.

“Market conditions in Canada have made it more difficult for investors to find reliable, income-generating opportunities,” says Parker Christie, Founder & CEO of Oak Street Partners. “By turning to the U.S. affordable housing market, we’ve been able to create consistent, cash-flowing investments that benefit both our investors and local communities.”

Building on this approach, Oak Street Partners facilitates investment by strategically acquiring and managing properties in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Investors provide capital, while Oak Street handles all aspects of property ownership and management. Similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but privately structured, Oak Street ensures investors receive stable, cash-flow-driven returns without the need for direct involvement.
A key part of Oak Street’s approach is leveraging the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program, America’s largest federal rental subsidy program that pays private landlords rent on behalf of low-income tenants. This guarantees a reliable, high cash flow income stream, even when real estate markets are challenged with high interest rate environments. By leveraging this program, Oak Street is not only able to provide consistent returns to its investors, but it also enhances lower-income communities, creating sustainable, quality homes for residents.

“It’s a win-win situation,” explains Trumbull Fisher, Director of Oak Street Partners. “Tenants are able to secure and enjoy quality, affordable housing, while investors benefit from reliable, government-backed rental payments that ensure steady cash flow.”

By investing in these properties, Oak Street is able to support the demand for affordable housing, while also contributing to the broader social good by addressing housing shortages and improving community infrastructure. This dual focus on financial return and social impact is what makes Oak Street’s approach stand out in today’s real estate investment landscape.

In its first year of operation, Oak Street has acquired over 100 units in Ohio. With $10 million in assets under management, the company has been able to offer its investors a 10 per cent cash dividend, which was distributed nine months into its operation. This is a rare milestone for companies in their first year, as many real estate investment firms operate at a loss in their early stages.

“As we look to the future, our goal is to expand Oak Street’s portfolio in high-demand areas across the Midwest and Southeast,” adds Christie. “Our focus will remain on sourcing properties that deliver strong, stable returns while positively impacting local communities.”

For more information on Oak Street Partners visit oakstreetgp.com/.

ABOUT OAK STREET PARTNERS

Oak Street Partners is a real estate investment firm focused on creating diversified and stable opportunities for investors in the U.S. rental housing market. We offer a unique pathway for investors to build and expand their portfolios by investing in affordable housing opportunities, improving the quality of life for tenants while delivering consistent returns for investors.

Website: https://oakstreetgp.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/oak-street-partners-gp

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oakstreetgp/

Email: info@oakstreetgp.com  n

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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1 week ago

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November 12, 2024

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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2 weeks ago

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November 6, 2024

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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