adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Investment

Larry Berman: Factoring currency implications in your investment decisions – BNN

Published

 on


The Bank of Canada has an excellent site that can help investors understand what factors move the Canadian dollar. Canada represents about three per cent of the equity world and about five per cent of the bond world, so the majority of investment opportunity resides in foreign currencies. This leads me to discuss the biggest investment factor in portfolios: currency returns.

Since the world left the gold standard in 1971, the annual impact from currency movements has been in the 5-10 per cent range, depending on the country. I know, most investors do not consider this at all, but it’s at least as large as the average price change in assets (stocks and bonds).

So what makes a currency move? There are two trade accounts that govern the types of money flowing. What is known as the current account and the capital account. The current account factors in data like the difference between imports and exports of goods and services. This is known as the balance of trade. The capital account deals with longer-term investments like securities (stocks and bonds), but also long-term investment. For example, a foreign corporation building a manufacturing facility in Canada. It creates jobs and taxes here, but the profits tend to flow back to the company’s home country. With all of these types of transactions, there is a net amount of money flowing in or out of the country.   

When a government runs a balance of payments deficit, there is more money flowing out and the currency will tend to weaken. Canada used to be a big supplier to the U.S. auto sector and our largest export remains energy products.

Our exporting competitiveness is a major factor. A weak currency makes our exports cheaper.  In 2019, 22 per cent of Canadian exports were mineral fuels (oil and gas), and vehicles accounted for 13.8 per cent.

When U.S. President Donald Trump said he wants more jobs in the U.S. and that the nation’s existing trade deals are bad, this is bad news for Canada.

Canada is a big exporter of steel and aluminum too, but neither factor into the top 10 export categories. Incidentally, gold exports (about five per cent) are on the rise with the dollar value on the rise, if not the quantity.  

Embedded Image
Graphic courtesy of BankofCanada.ca

Over the past 20 years, we see that Canada has been less reliant on the U.S. economy for capital flows, but it will always remain the biggest contributor. The biggest increases are China, Europe and Mexico.

This leads to my call for the week: The recent strength in the Canadian dollar is not at all due to improving trade outlooks for Canada (beyond some price increases in commodities). It’s not at all due to an improving fiscal outlook or an improving business climate that would attract foreign investment.

We are past the best before date in the energy sector due to lack of government support for investment in our largest export sector and possible global peak demand. It has got caught up in the general reduction in “flight to safety” flows in the U.S. dollar. And that has occurred, in part, because the U.S. is doing so much worse in terms of battling COVID-19, looming election uncertainty, and the massive debasement of the dollar as the Fed’s balance sheet is expanding at lightning speed.

I see the Canadian dollar weakening back below 70 U.S. cents (1.4286) over the next year and therefore I would look to own those U.S. assets via ETFs without a currency hedge.

My overall economic outlook is not bullish. DLR is the Horizons’ U.S. dollar money market ETF that gives exposure to the greenback. If you are sitting in cash because you are worried about elections or market valuation risk, consider sitting in the U.S. dollar.

Embedded Image

Follow Larry online:

Twitter: @LarryBermanETF

YouTube: Larry Berman Official

LinkedIn Group:  ETF Capital Management

Facebook: ETF Capital Management

Web:  www.etfcm.com

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

Published

 on

 

NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Investment

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending