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Liberal cabinet retreat: Minister says fiscal room tightening

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HAMILTON –

Canada’s associate finance minister says it’s going to be a “turbulent” year for the economy, but Randy Boissonault insists the government still has some spending room for big priorities including a new health-care deal with the provinces.

Boissonnault was speaking before the cabinet meets on the second of a three-day cabinet retreat in Hamilton, Ont. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to give an economic update to cabinet later Tuesday.

“There’s lots of uncertainty,” Boissonnault said. “So we’re going to be watching this every step of the way as we get ready for budget (2023). We still have fiscal room to be able to do the things we need to do but the fiscal room has tightened.”

He said the war in Ukraine and inflation are among the issues causing both uncertainty and economic harm.

On Monday, a joint report from the Business Council of Canada and Bennett Jones warned that the fiscal forecast laid out in the last federal budget and the fall economic statement was likely too rosy.

The report, written by former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge and former Liberal finance policy adviser Robert Asselin, said the government’s forecast was based on a “plausible but optimistic” set of economic and interest-rate assumptions that are unlikely to come true.

They warn there is a “high likelihood of a more severe recession” this year and that the Liberal promises on everything from health-care funding and enhanced national defence spending to infrastructure improvements and climate change are going to cost a lot more than projected.

Boissonnault said that report is one of many the government will look to as it makes its economic forecast ahead of the next budget. He said he thinks the fiscal reality will fall somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios laid out in the fall economic statement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said affordability and making Canada competitive were his priorities heading into this cabinet meeting.

Ongoing talks with the provinces for a new health funding deal are also front and centre and are one of the issues that could change the government’s spending plans. The provinces have asked for billions over the next decade to bring their health systems back from the brink of collapse.

Ottawa is insisting on accountability for any new health funding and Trudeau has not publicly committed to meet the premiers’ demands.

Trudeau started his day Tuesday meeting with Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath, the former leader of Ontario’s NDP. The pair said housing was among their chief topics of conversation.

Housing prices and a lack of affordable housing in particular have become a key issue for governments at every level.

The cabinet meeting in Hamilton comes as it prepares for the return of Parliament next week. The industrial city, known predominantly as a steel town, is also one of the most competitive politically, particularly between the Liberals the NDP. The Liberals won three of the four seats in Hamilton proper in 2021, edging out the NDP in one seat that party had held since 2006.

Cabinet was also given a sharp reminder of the loud opposition they face among a group known as the “freedom convoy.” A small protest greeted Trudeau Monday afternoon as he arrived.

A larger group, about three dozen or so, returned in the evening, where they waved flags, yelled and set off fireworks — including some they appeared to aim at the building.

Most disbanded by 11 p.m. but at least one protester spent most of the night honking his horn off and on, reminiscent of the air horns from the big rigs that blocked much of downtown Ottawa for three weeks almost a year ago.

This coming weekend will mark the one-year anniversary of the convoy’s arrival in Ottawa. The weeks-long blockade and accompanying blockades at several border crossings prompted Trudeau to invoke the Emergencies Act for the first time since it replaced the War Measures Act in 1988.

The final report from the public inquiry into that decision is due in February.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 24, 2023.

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Here is the latest on the New Brunswick election

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The New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government, and Susan Holt will become the first woman to lead the province.

Here’s the latest from election night. All times are ADT.

10:15 p.m.

The results of the New Brunswick election are in, and with virtually all of the ballots counted, the Liberals won 31 seats out of 49.

The Progressive Conservatives won 16 seats.

The Green Party won two.

Voter turnout was about 66 per cent.

10 p.m.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has congratulated New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt for her party’s victory in the provincial election.

Trudeau says on the X platform he’s looking forward to working with Holt to build more homes, protect the country’s two official languages, and improve health care.

9:48 p.m.

During her victory speech tonight in Fredericton, New Brunswick premier-designate Susan Holt thanked all the women who came before her.

Holt will become the first woman to lead the province after her party won a majority government in the New Brunswick election.

The Liberals are elected or leading in 31 of 49 ridings.

9:30 p.m.

Blaine Higgs says he will begin a transition to replace him as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.

After being in power for six years, the Tories lost the election to the Liberals.

Higgs, who lost his seat of Quispamsis, says, “My leadership days are over.”

9:17 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick since 2016, has lost in the riding of Quispamsis.

Higgs, 70, has been premier of New Brunswick since 2018, and was first elected to the legislature in 2010.

8:45 p.m.

When asked about the election results, Progressive Conservative chief of staff Paul D’Astous says that over the last 18 months the party has had to contend with a number of caucus members who disagreed with its policy.

D’Astous says the Tories have also had to own what happened over the last six years, since they came to power in 2018, adding that the voters have spoken.

8:39 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Green Party, has won the riding of Fredericton Lincoln.

Coon, 67, has been leader of the party since 2014, the year he was first elected to the legislature.

8:36 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that the New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government in the provincial election.

Party leader Susan Holt will become the first woman premier in the province’s history.

8:20 p.m.

Early returns show a number of close races across the province, with the Liberals off to an early lead.

Liberal campaign manager Katie Davey says the results will show whether party leader Susan Holt, a relative newcomer, was able to capture the attention and trust of the people of New Brunswick.

Davey says she believes voters have welcomed Holt and her message, which focused on pocketbook issues, especially health care.

8 p.m.

Polls have closed.

Eyes will be on a number of key ridings including Fredericton South-Silverwood, where Liberal Leader Susan Holt is vying for a seat; Saint John Harbour, which has been competitive between the Tories and Liberals in recent elections; and Moncton East, a redrawn Tory-held riding that the Liberals have targeted.

At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three, there was one Independent and there were four vacancies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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A look at Susan Holt, Liberal premier-designate of New Brunswick

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FREDERICTON – A look at Susan Holt, premier-designate and leader of the New Brunswick Liberal party.

Born: April 22, 1977.

Early years: Raised in Fredericton, she attended Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and then spent a year in Toronto before moving abroad for three years, spending time in Australia and India.

Education: Earned a bachelor of arts in economics and a bachelor of science in chemistry from Queen’s University.

Family: Lives in Fredericton with her husband, Jon Holt, and three young daughters.

Hobbies: Running, visiting the farmers market in Fredericton with her family every Saturday.

Before politics: CEO of the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, CEO of the New Brunswick Business Council, civil servant, business lobbyist, advocate, consultant and executive with an IT service company that trains and employs Indigenous people.

Politics: Worked as an adviser to former Liberal premier Brian Gallant. Won the leadership of the provincial Liberal party in August 2022 and was elected to the legislature in an April 2023 byelection.

Quote: “We don’t take it lightly that you have put your trust in myself and my team, and you have hope for a brighter future. But that hope I know is short-lived and it will be on us to deliver authentically, on the ground, and openly and transparently.” — Susan Holt, in her speech to supporters in Fredericton after the Liberals won a majority government on Oct. 21, 2024.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick Liberals win majority, Susan Holt first woman to lead province

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is a relative newcomer to the province’s political scene, having won a byelection last year, eight months after she became the first woman to win the leadership of the party.

The Liberals appeared poised to take 31 of 49 seats to the Conservatives’ 16 and the Greens two.

Holt, 47, led the Liberals to victory after a 33-day campaign, thwarting Blaine Higgs’s bid to secure a third term as Tory premier.

The Liberal win marks a strong repudiation of Higgs’s pronounced shift to more socially conservative policies.

Higgs, meanwhile, lost in his riding of Quispamsis. In a speech to supporters in the riding, he confirmed that he would begin a leadership transition process.

As the Liberals secured their majority, Green Party Leader David Coon thanked his supporters and pledged to continue building the party, but he then turned his sights on the premier. “One thing is for sure,” he told a crowd gathered at Dolan’s Pub in Fredericton, “we know that Blaine Higgs is no longer the premier of this province.”

The election race was largely focused on health care and affordability but was notable for the remarkably dissimilar campaign styles of Holt and Higgs. Holt repeatedly promised to bring a balanced approach to governing, pledging a sharp contrast to Higgs’s “one-man show taking New Brunswick to the far right.”

“We need a government that acts as a partner and not as a dictator from one office in Fredericton,” she said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

Higgs focused on the high cost of living, promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent — a pledge that will cost the province about $450 million annually.

Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. A former business advocate and public servant, she promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028; remove the provincial sales tax from electricity bills; overhaul mental health services; and impose a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025.

The 70-year-old Tory leader, a mechanical engineer and former Irving Oil executive, led a low-key campaign, during which he didn’t have any scheduled public events on at least 10 days — and was absent from the second leaders debate on Oct. 9.

Holt missed only two days of campaigning and submitted a 30-page platform with 100 promises, a far heftier document than the Tories’ two-page platform that includes 11 pledges.

When the election was called on Sept. 19, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Green Party had three, there was one Independent and four vacancies. At least 25 seats are needed for a majority.

Higgs was hoping to become the first New Brunswick premier to win three consecutive elections since Liberal Frank McKenna won his third straight majority in 1995. But it was clear from the start that Higgs would have to overcome some big obstacles.

On the first day of the campaign, a national survey showed he had the lowest approval rating of any premier in the country. That same morning, Higgs openly mused about how he was perceived by the public, suggesting people had the wrong idea about who he really is.

“I really wish that people could know me outside of politics,” he said, adding that a sunnier disposition might increase his popularity. “I don’t know whether I’ve got to do comedy hour or I’ve got to smile more.”

Still, Higgs had plenty to boast about, including six consecutive balanced budgets, a significant reduction in the province’s debt, income tax cuts and a booming population.

Higgs’s party was elected to govern in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in almost 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — marking the first province to go to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a slim majority.

Since then, 14 Tory caucus members have stepped down after clashing with the premier, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on conservative policies that represented a hard shift to the right.

A caucus revolt erupted last year after Higgs announced changes to the gender identity policy in schools. When several Tory lawmakers voted for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from cabinet. A bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.

Higgs has also said a Tory government would reject all new applications for supervised drug-consumption sites, renew a legal challenge against the federal carbon pricing scheme and force people into drug treatment if authorities deem they “pose a threat to themselves or others.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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