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Lipper: time to adjust your tools for the next investment phase – citywireselector.com

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For many years to the extent possible, I managed the Defined Contribution Plans for the NFL and the NFL Players Association. At the time of each Super Bowl, when asked which team I was rooting for, I replied “for those in the black and white uniforms”.

I hoped the officials would see all the relevant plays and correctly interpret the changing rules of the game. As it turns out, that was good training for watching the constantly unfolding investment games between buyers and sellers, various regulators, shifting weather conditions, injuries, mistakes, and pure luck.

None of the results were pre-ordained and would be argued about for many years into the future. I approach each market and market phase with the same weariness in preparing for the next market phase.

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Part of the preparation is examining the terms used to describe the game, and when appropriate improve definitions. This exercise may be particularly important this year, as it appears we are close to a crossroad.

Enthusiasm vs crumbling underlying structure

Many global stock markets are rising in February, despite the historical odds that after a decline in January there is only a 22% chance that the remaining eleven months will produce a profit.

The general media, revealing their political views, interpret the various executive orders and other political pronouncements as accomplishing their goals, and see an economic expansion beyond the release from the lockdowns. It could happen, but the odds of complete success are unlikely. 

The current small-cap +5.03% and emerging market +3.07% leadership in January is like other late stages of the past. Fixed income funds often lead equity funds in terms of direction.

For the year through Thursday night, the average S&P 500 Index fund was up +3.16% vs -2.95% for the average General US Treasury mutual fund. Another worrisome note is the size of margin debt, which perhaps due to short squeeze actions has reached record levels.

A good investor should look beyond stock prices to see a different economic view, which I attempt to do. Large futures speculators are increasing their shorts in copper, Eurodollars, S&P 500 minis, emerging markets, and US Treasury bonds.

In recent blogs I mentioned the Industrial Price Index rising compared to a year ago and this week it accelerated to a gain of +33.18%. The bond market recognizes these tensions and the yield curve has continued to steepen.

Even the Congressional Budget Office sees that inflation will likely be over 2% by 2023. (My guess is that it will be a lot sooner, raising the cost of financing the politically generated deficit.)

Understanding the tools of security/fund selection

Headline writers and many marketeers prefer short words to describe complex tools, e.g., “growth” and “value”. These create good pictures or charts, with ever rising growth and ever declining value. Would it be so. As with the changing weather at a football game, conditions change, as do the useful definitions of terms. 

Speculators essentially bet on what others will pay for their shares, bonds, or loans in the future and a successful speculator primarily knows his/her markets. An investor is a partial owner of a company that at some point could be purchased by a knowledgeable buyer.

It has been the motivation of buyers and sellers in marketplaces around the world since recorded time. Perhaps in response to the “great depression”, securities analysis became a separate academic subject, distinct from older economics courses. 

Benjamin Graham was a successful analyst/portfolio manager/investor. He was also a good writer as an adjunct professor at Columbia University and worked with Professor David Dodd in writing the first textbook on Security Analysis.

Graham and Dodd were primarily interested in avoiding unnecessary investment losses in their writings and emphasized the use of financial statements, particularly balance sheets. In early editions of their six-edition book, they emphasized anticipated liquidating value, an issue appropriate during a depression.

While Ben Graham is often erroneously called the “Father of Security Analysis” and the first value investor, this is not where he and his partners in a closed-end fund made most of their money. The fund became a dominant shareholder in an insurance company which had no real equity left on its balance sheet.

What it did have in this period of substantial unemployment was a customer base of relatively low wage employed government workers. They saved and ended up controlling Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO), which Warren Buffett analyzed and eventually bought outright.

Years later I personally had the honor of taking the Security Analysis course under Dave Dodd, but I disagreed with him and believed that growth was an important factor in choosing investments. He quickly shut me up by indicating how much money they had made on their investments.

Years later, as a small entrepreneur, this led me to include growth and more importantly the evaluation of key people in making successful investments. (In evaluating three cases, one had to be closed, another was key to a bigger product, and the third was very successful).

As a side matter, I was particularly pleased to receive the Benjamin Graham Award from the analyst’s society in New York for a private matter requiring some investigative skills a few years ago.

Today, when I review financial statements, particularly the footnotes, I have little confidence they will reveal the “true value” of the company. We live in a litigious world and accounting practices are designed to protect the accountant, the underwriter, or the company itself against lawsuits, rather than to ascertain value.

However, there are some very good analysts that are pretty good at finding the range of values for a company. These analysts don’t publish their work, as they are employed by investment bankers, private equity funds, or serial acquirers.

While they don’t publish, the price of their bids and deals are known, and this sets the market price for similar deals. If I can’t get enough data, I use the multiple paid for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization on successful bids. 

To understand value investing, one needs to understand where the current market is and what is best indicated by the price of deals. These in turn are influenced by the level of interest rates used to discount future growth and the cost of acquisition.

How to measure growth

Many believe that any number larger than the previous number is growth. For valuation purposes however, what is useable are growth comparisons. They should deduct inflation, exclude acquisitions, currency changes, and the impact of changes in regulation or competition. To me, each period may be different, so a long period growth rate can be misleading. 

I like to see the consistency of growth rates. There are times when highly variable growth rates leading to above average long-term trends are valuable and times where a more consistent return is more valuable, particularly for accounts that have finite payments requirements. (For mutual funds, we measure both total return and consistent returns.)

What about both growth and value?

In truth many companies go through periods of growth and value. IBM, before it changed its name and was under Tom Watson’s management, had so much debt that it was viewed as an underwater stock.

Years later, it became the prime example of a growth stock and later still its growth slowed to the point where at times it was viewed as a value stock. Because of various recent changes I don’t know how to characterize it. What I do know, is that past financial history is not of much use to an outside investor. 

Since many companies go through numerous growth and value changes, I favor looking at many periods. However, it is more important to look at changes within the company, including the people hired at the senior and entry level, changes in product/service/prices, and the reaction to competition/regulation.

Conclusions

  1. Look at how things are, don’t overpay for history.
  2. Expect surprises!
  3. Take partial positions initially.
  4. Admit mistakes quickly and serially.

A former president of the New York Society for Security Analysts, he was president of Lipper Analytical Services Inc. the home of the global array of Lipper indexes, averages and performance analyses for mutual funds. His blog can be found here.

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Deutsche Bank's Investment Bankers Step Up as Rate Boost Fades – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG relied on its traders and investment bankers to make up for a slowdown in income from lending, as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to deliver on an ambitious revenue goal.

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Fixed income trading rose 7% in the first quarter, more than analysts had expected and better than most of the biggest US investment banks. Income from advising on deals and stock and bond sales jumped 54%.

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Revenue for the group rose about 1% as the prospect of falling interest rates hurt the corporate bank and the private bank that houses the retail business.

Sewing has vowed to improve profitability and lift revenue to €30 billion this year, a goal some analysts view with skepticism as the end of the rapid rate increases weighs on revenue from lending. In the role for six years, the CEO is cutting thousands of jobs in the back office to curb costs while building out the advisory business with last year’s purchase of Numis Corp. to boost fee income.

“We are very pleased” with the investment bank, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The trends of the first quarter “have continued into April,” he said, including “a slower macro environment” that’s being offset by “momentum in credit” and emerging markets.

While traders and investment bankers did well, revenue at the corporate bank declined 5% on lower net interest income. Private bank revenue fell about 2%. Both units benefited when central banks raised interest rates over the past two years, allowing them to charge more for loans while still paying relatively little for deposits.

With inflation slowing and interest rates set to fall again, that effect is reversing, though markets have scaled back expectations for how quickly and how deep central banks are likely to cut. That’s lifted shares of Europe’s lenders recently, with Deutsche Bank gaining 25% this year.

“Deutsche Bank reported a reasonable set of results,” analysts Thomas Hallett and Andrew Stimpson at KBW wrote in a note. “The investment bank performed well while the corporate bank and asset management underperformed.”

–With assistance from Macarena Muñoz and Oliver Crook.

(Updates with CFO comments in fifth paragraph.)

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©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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How Can I Invest in Eco-friendly Companies? – CB – CanadianBusiness.com

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Welcome to CB’s personal-finance advice column, Make It Make Sense, where each month experts answer reader questions on complex investment and personal-finance topics and break them down in terms we can all understand. This month, Damir Alnsour, a lead advisor and portfolio manager at money-management platform Wealthsimple, tackles eco-friendly investments. Have a question about your finances? Send it to [email protected].


Q: It’s Earth Month! And… there’s a climate crisis. How can I invest in companies and portfolios funding causes I believe in?

Earth Day may have been introduced in 1970, but today it’s more relevant than ever: In a 2023 survey, 72 per cent of Canadians said they were worried about climate change. Along with carpooling, ditching single-use plastics and composting, you can celebrate Earth Month this year by greening your investment portfolio.

Green investing, or buying shares in projects, companies, or funds that are committed to environmental sustainability, is an excellent way to support projects and businesses that reflect your passions and lifestyle choices. It’s growing in favour among Canadian investors, but there are some considerations investors should be mindful of. Let’s review some green investing options and what to look out for.

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Green Bonds

Green bonds are a fixed-income instrument where the proceeds are put toward climate-related purposes. In 2022, the Canadian government launched its first Green Bond Framework, which saw strong demand from domestic and global investors. This resulted in a record $11 billion green bonds being sold. One warning: Because it’s a smaller market, green bonds tend to be less liquid than many other investments.

It’s also important to note that a “green” designation can mean a lot of different things. And they’re not always all that environmentally-guided. Some companies use broad, vague terms to explain how the funds will be used, and they end up using the money they raised with the bond sale to pay for other corporate needs that aren’t necessarily eco-friendly. There’s also the practice of “greenwashing,” labelling investments as “green” for marketing campaigns without actually doing the hard work required to improve their environmental footprint.

To make things more challenging, funds and asset managers themselves can partake in greenwashing. Many funds that purport to be socially responsible still hold oil and gas stocks, just fewer of them than other funds. Or they own shares of the “least problematic” of the oil and gas companies, thereby touting emission reductions without clearly disclosing the extent of those improvements. As with any type of investing, it’s important to do your research and understand exactly what you’re investing in.

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) and Impact Investing

SRI and impact investing portfolios hold a mix of stocks and bonds that are intended to put your money towards projects and companies that work to advance progressive social outcomes or address a social issue—i.e., investing in companies that don’t wreak havoc on society. They can include companies promoting sustainable growth, diverse workforces and equitable hiring practices.

The main difference between the two approaches is that SRI uses a measurable criteria to qualify or disqualify companies as socially responsible, while impact investing typically aims to help an enterprise produce some social or environmental benefit.

Related: Climate Change Is Influencing How Young People Invest Their Money

Some financial institutions use the two approaches to build well-diversified, low-cost, socially responsible portfolios that align with most clients’ environmental and societal preferences. That said, not all portfolios are constructed with the same care. As with evaluating green bonds, it’s important to remember that a company or fund having an SRI designation or saying it partakes in impact investing is subjective. There’s always a risk of not knowing exactly where and with whom the money is being invested.

All three of these options are good reminders that, even though you may feel helpless to enact environmental or social change in the face of larger systemic issues, your choices can still support the well-being of society and the planet. So, if you have extra funds this April (maybe from your tax return?), green or social investing are solid options. As long as you do thorough research and understand some of the limitations, you’re sure to find investments that are both good for the world and your finances.

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MOF: Govt to establish high-level facilitation platform to oversee potential, approved strategic investments

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KUALA LUMPUR: A meeting with 70 financial fund investors and corporate members at the recently concluded Joint Investors Meeting in London has touched on the MADANI government’s immediate action to stimulate strategic investment in important technologies, according to the Ministry of Finance (MoF).

In a statement today, it said that the government is serious about making investments a national agenda through the establishment of a high-level investment facilitation platform to ensure the implementation of potential and approved strategic investments through a “Whole of Government” approach.

Minister of Finance II Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan (pix), who led the Malaysian delegation to the Joint Investors Meeting from April 20 to 22, said that the National Investment Council (MPN) chaired by the Prime Minister is an integrated action that reflects how serious the government is in making Malaysia an investment hub in the region.

Among the immediate actions taken by the government is establishing the National Semiconductor Strategic Committee (NSSTF) to facilitate cooperation between the government, industry players, universities, and relevant stakeholders to place the Malaysian semiconductor industry at the forefront and ensure the continued growth of the electronics & electrical industry, especially the semiconductor sector, as a major contributor to the Malaysian economy.

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The government also aims to empower Malaysia as a preferred green investment destination as well as remove barriers and bureaucracy in the provision and accessibility to renewable energy, especially for the new technology industry, including data centres, said Amir Hamzah.

He also said that the country’s investment prospects have reached an extraordinary level, with approved investments surging to RM329.5 billion in 2023 from RM268 billion in 2022.

He said about 74 per cent of manufacturing projects approved between 2021 and 2023 have been completed or are in process.

In addition, Amir Hamzah said the greater initial stage construction work completed in 2023 (RM31.5 billion) and 2022 (RM26.3 billion) shows a positive trend for future investment opportunities.

“From a total of 5,101 investment projects approved in 2023, as many as 81.2 per cent or 4,143 projects are in the services sector, 883 projects in the manufacturing sector, and 75 projects in other related sectors,” he said.

Before this, Amir Hamzah met with international investors in New York and Washington to clarify the direction of the implementation of the MADANI Economic framework to improve investors’ confidence in Malaysia’s economic level and strengthen the perception and investment sentiment of foreign investors towards the country.

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