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Liquidation wave sinks markets as Senate bickers – Asia Times

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US equity indices were down about 3% mid-afternoon, despite an unprecedented commitment by the Federal Reserve to buy unlimited quantities of virtually all categories of debt securities as well as corporate-bond ETF’s. The Fed’s measure failed to impress markets after Senate Republicans and Democrats failed for a second day in efforts to pass an equally unprecedented $2 trillion bailout bill.

The Fed’s new intervention is less an intravenous tube than a fire hose. But it has not yet succeeded in stabilizing markets for high-quality securities that form the bedrock of the financial system. High-quality commercial paper with a AA rating, the short-term obligations of major corporations, usually yields a few hundreds of a percent more than Treasury bills.

Today the spread between AA commercial and Treasury bills shot up to 2.12%, approaching the 2.7% level touched during the 2008 financial crisis. Even large corporations may lose access to the short-term public borrowing market. The blowout in commercial paper spreads occurred after the Fed announced a special facility to buy commercial paper for its own account, in effect lending directly to corporations.

That is why St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warns that the unemployment rate might reach 30% during the second quarter and that economic activity might fall by half.

The Federal Reserve last week said it would buy $500 billion of US Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Today it removed the ceiling on prospective purchases, and added corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and commercial real estate mortgages to its shopping list. The spread between Treasuries and mortgage-backed and corporate bonds came in slightly, but still remains a multiple of normal levels.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans and Democrats bickered openly on the floor of the Congress, and the Senate failed to reach an agreement on the $2 trillion emergency spending bill proposed by the Administration. At 1 p.m., just before news broke that the Senate remained at an impasse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had recouped almost all of an early 5% loss. It plunged again after the Senate negotiations failed.

Republicans have a list of proposed subsidies for corporations that the Democrats don’t like, and the Democrats want an guarantee that corporations who receive aid won’t fire any workers. If the Senate doesn’t act quickly, the Democrat position will become moot as half of American workers lose their jobs. According to thehill.com, the Republican bill raises a “corporate bailout fund” to $500  billion.

A large share of the credit universe is in real distress, including high-yield debt issued by shale drillers now driven out of business by a $21 oil price, and real estate companies who own empty hotels and deserted shopping malls. The collapse of financing for high-quality, liquid debt is a bigger threat, however.

One of the sources of the avalanche of force sales is the $12 trillion overhang of foreign bank obligations to US banks, as I wrote in this space on March 13. During the past 30 years, foreigners have financed the cumulative US current account deficit by purchasing dollar-denominated US securities, and foreign banks have borrowed dollars in order to create hedges against dollar fluctuation for these investors.

The credit crunch in the United States has cut off interbank credit to foreign banks, who have to unwind the foreign exchange hedges. That, in turn, forces bank customers to sell securities. The $12 trillion size of these obligations is large enough to swamp the amount of money that the Federal Reserve is prepared to spend.

That is why direct spending by governments is so critical. Central banks, in theory, can print as much money as they like, but even the Federal Reserve can’t triple its balance sheet overnight without putting its own credit at risk. Markets have to expect a backstop for corporations before the run on credit comes to an end.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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