SYDNEY (Reuters) – Coronavirus has done to Australia what even the global financial crisis couldn’t: abruptly end a record growth run and help trigger a deep recession from which the country will take time to recover.
While Australia has had great success so far in heading off the pandemic, with just over 100 deaths, the cure of shutting out the rest of the world means massive hits to three key growth drivers – tourism, education and immigration.
Fiona Gulin was 18 when the last recession hit Australia in the early 1990s. Back then, she managed to keep a part-time job at a music publication, before moving on to full-time work and a lucrative career in the entertainment industry.
This time, she hasn’t been so lucky.
“I have been hit hard in this recession,” said Gulin, who was laid off in April as the marketing director of the ANZ Stadium in Sydney, prompting her to ditch her rented house in the city and move back to her home in Melbourne.
Gulin is among the hundreds of thousands who have lost their livelihoods overnight to the COVID-19 pandemic as Australia suffers its first recession in 30 years and its unemployment rate hits a 19-year high of 7.1%.
Even though Australia’s economy was among the first to reopen after lockdowns worldwide and earlier than the government expected, it contracted 0.3% in the first quarter and a new wave of coronavirus cases could put a recovery at risk.
Women have been particularly hard hit.
The unemployment rate for females looking for full-time work surged to 8.3% in May from 5.4% in February before coronavirus-driven shutdowns kicked in. That compares with 7% for men from 4.8% in February.
“Australia is known as the lucky country but I am not very lucky at the moment,” Gulin, who is receiving government welfare payments, told Reuters.
“I have been talking to a few people about some opportunities but nothing has come up yet.”
(GRAPHIC: Australia sees surge in unemployed women looking for full-time work – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yzdpxrrjwpx/Surge%20in%20unemployed%20women%20looking%20for%20full-time%20work.png)
VULNERABLE SERVICES
During the unprecedented run of growth, Australia transformed into an open, services-driven economy, feeding China’s rise with its mineral and commodity wealth and shedding much of its manufacturing capability.
The services sector accounts for almost two-thirds of Australia’s A$2 trillion ($1.4 trillion) annual economic output – but is now particularly vulnerable to the closure of national borders and social distancing measures to tame coronavirus.
“The tourism-dependent economies are the ones we worry about the most,” said Citi’s global chief economist, Catherine Mann.
Mann sees a V-shaped rebound for manufacturing generally but for the services or consumer discretionary sector, “it is absolutely an L-shaped recovery,” she said, meaning it could take a while for growth to fully recover.
“What was lost in the early part of this year will never be recovered from the standpoint of revenues for a company.”
VIRUS SHADOW
Policymakers, too, are worried about the long road back to economic health.
(GRAPHIC: Australia consumer confidence sinks, jobless rate surges – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xlbvgoomnvq/Pasted%20image%201593141836115.png)
The Reserve Bank of Australia has pledged to keep its benchmark cash rate at a record low 0.25% until there is progress in achieving its employment and inflation goals.
“We’re going to have low interest rates for a long period of time,” central bank Governor Philip Lowe said last week, adding that there would be “a shadow from the virus for quite a few years.”
“People will be more risk averse, they won’t want to borrow. In Australia, we’re going to have lower population dynamics,” Lowe said, referring to the idea that fewer foreigners entering the country would lead to lower consumer demand and a tighter labour market.
Puja Basnet, an international student from Nepal, is reconsidering her options in Australia after losing her part-time job as a waitress.
“I was at home for two months without work and I have almost run out of my savings. As a non-Australian I don’t even have access to Centrelink,” she said, referring to government welfare payments.
For Basnet, the future is even more challenging as more people are now jostling for each job.
An L-shaped recovery also means the unemployment rate will stay higher for longer.
“I am really worried about the future. I have been applying for 30-40 jobs a week but there has been zero responses.”
(Reporting by Swati Pandey; Editing by John Mair and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
