This was a great example of the kind of tight-checking game the Leafs will need to break through in come playoff time.
The Minnesota Wild have always done a phenomenal job of limiting shot quality at 5v5, ranking first in the NHL over the last half-decade in that department. This season, they’re in the top three again, and you can see why when Auston Matthews & Co. have trouble gaining the zone and completing plays through the middle of the ice at even strength.
The good news is that Toronto did find a way to manufacture some offense even after Minnesota fully committed to defense with a three-goal lead, dominating the second half of the middle frame. They needed a pair of power-play goals to get back in the game, but hey, we’d expect a skilled team like Toronto to nab a few points in the standings with their power play.
That obviously wasn’t the case last season, especially down the stretch. When we look at things in 2021-22, though, the Leafs rank second in the league in 5v4 shot quantity and first in 5v4 shot quality. They got a bit of puck luck in this game thanks to a Jason Spezza heater, but this is a power play that’s been sustainably generating chances. It’s earned some nights like these.
It was far from a perfect game, so to help break things down in more detail, we’ll go through each player individually as we always do. I bet you can guess who’s first.
Here we go folks, it’s time for some Leafs Report Cards!
5 Stars
Jason Spezza (C, #19) — Sometimes your league-minimum forward needs to put the team on his back.
He did score a bizarre goal from below the goal line on a lucky bounce. Then again, he also scored on a one-timer from the bumper spot on PP1 and made this gorgeous backdoor feed to Matthews from the right wall.
With Mitch Marner out of the lineup, Toronto’s power play didn’t seem to miss a beat with Spezza replacing him on the half-wall. They actually had more shooting options, which was very clear on Spezza’s one-timer from the slot. Opposing PKs give Marner that shot every day of the week, but you actually have to respect Spezza’s ability to beat an NHL goaltender clean from 30 feet out.
I have no doubt Marner will be back on the top unit when he returns to the lineup. He’s too important to this team’s long-term success to not be on their stacked PP1 unit, although his unique skillset (and flaws) force the Leafs into more of a motion-based approach with the man advantage rather than spamming one-timers like we saw in this game against the Wild.
Is it necessarily “better” to have a power play with more shot threats zipping the puck around for quick one-timers? It’s tough to say, because I love how unpredictable Toronto’s power play becomes when the Core Four are roaming around the offensive zone in different areas, keeping opposing penalty killers guessing as to who’s standing where. They’re also much more likely to get the puck below the goal line to either Marner or Nylander, which opens up more passing options for high-percentage looks.
One thing remains clear, though: Spezza can still provide big-time value offensively, whether it’s filling in spot-duty on PP1 or quarterbacking PP2 by himself with a revolving door of interchangeable forwards.
Let’s hope the injury that forced him from the game in OT was merely a stinger and not something worse. The Leafs could’ve used him in the shootout, where he presumably would’ve shot first.
4 Stars
The Czech Connection — It’s great to see Ondrej Kase back in the lineup alongside his partner in crime, David Kampf. Both players had a big impact in this game at even strength in very different ways, as always.
Kase was the offensive driver on the third line and actually got a chance to run PP2. The Leafs tried him out as the primary puck-carrier for the 5v4 zone entry and it looked pretty dangerous with Kase using his speed to fly up the ice. They’ll obviously go back to Spezza as The Guy on PP2 when Marner returns to the lineup, but it never hurts to have another skilled option for the entry, and Kase could help provide that for Toronto.
My one criticism of Kase’s game is that he might be trying to do a bit too much by himself. I have all the sympathy in the world for a guy who looks to his left, sees he’s playing alongside Engvall-Kampf, and decides to call his own number. I’d probably make the same decision if I’m flying up the ice off the rush, but at a certain point, lone wolf rushes can become predictable and easy to defend.
Kampf is actually good at transitioning the puck up the ice and through the neutral zone, which was on full display against Minnesota. It’s an attribute I’d like to see Kase take advantage of more often. We’re well aware by now just how little Kampf can provide in the offensive zone, but he can help Kase get there.
Morgan Rielly (LD, #44) — It feels wrong to give a defenseman only four stars on a night when he picked up three assists, but if you go back and watch the tape on those goals, I’d argue he wasn’t directly involved in breaking down Minnesota’s structure.
Spezza’s lucky goal off a crazy bounce
Simple pass to Matthews on right wall of PP1
Simple pass to Spezza on right wall of PP1
Tyler Dellow used to write about defensemen on PP1 all the time, explaining how their job was to make a simple pass to the quarterbacks on the half-wall. It’s those players on the flanks who actually “solve” the penalty kill, which is why power-play points from defensemen tend to be super overvalued on the open market. We’ll see high point totals and assume that player is dictating offense, when really they’re just a product of their environment.
That said, Rielly had a strong game against Minnesota, advancing the puck up the ice with possession and completing passes offensively to help keep Toronto on the right side of the rink. That’s why I thought he played well, not because of three secondary assists.
Alex Kerfoot (LW, #15) — First Travis Dermott, then David Kampf, and now it’s looking like I might need to re-think my evaluation of Alex Kerfoot as a player. I quite like him in a complementary role at left wing. It allows him to use his speed more effectively in puck pursuit, which is an attribute that’s made him one of Toronto’s best penalty killers.
He’s been third on their 4v5 depth chart this season because of how well he takes away space in the neutral zone with his foot speed. With Marner out of the lineup and Kampf in the penalty box, it was Kerfoot who was called upon to be the forward on Toronto’s extended 5v3 penalty kill — and he did a fantastic job.
I always hedge these Kerfoot evaluations by mentioning his strong point production is unlikely to continue due to unsustainable puck-luck, but his stellar play without the puck is giving me reason to think he can still provide value in the top six even after his On Ice Sh% cools off a bit.
John Tavares (C, #91) — This was a bit of an off-night for William Nylander, which forced John Tavares into more of a puck-transporting role. I liked the way he was able to stick-handle through traffic in the neutral zone, helping his team get into the offensive zone with control.
When he got there, Tavares was able to work his way to the middle of the ice for a few good chances, especially on the rebound chance where he drew a penalty. He was also one of Toronto’s only players who was able to thread passes through the slot at 5v5.
And 5v4.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Tavares is such a great fit for Toronto in the middle of the ice. The Leafs have a plethora of skilled players who can make plays from the perimeter, but not as many forwards who are comfortable getting themselves to the slot for deflections, rebounds, or quick little “bump” passes like this.
Tavares continues to dominate from that spot on the ice and likely won’t be moving away from the middle of the offensive zone anytime soon.
Jack Campbell (G, #36) — One of the reasons goaltenders are so difficult to assess is because a huge chunk of their performance comes down to dumb luck. Campbell was on the wrong side of a few bad bounces in this game, which isn’t his fault, but his save percentage suffers because of it.
Since I know Twitter loves to litigate every single goal against, let’s quickly break down the three he allowed against the Wild:
Joel Eriksson Ek deflection in front, off the post, and right onto Jordan Greenway’s tape
Deflection off of Justin Holl in front
Rebound bounces off of an official and right onto Marcus Foligno’s tape
There’s a reason predicting goaltender performance is damn-near impossible statistically; there’s simply too much variance with weird bounces like these. We can descriptively measure how many goals someone saves above expected, but when you take the volatility of the position into account, predicting future performance becomes a nightmare.
It’s why I don’t even pretend to understand the position half the time, and nights like these are a perfect example. Campbell played well by my eye, and allowed three goals against because… hockey. His ability to shake off those bad bounces and make the next big save at many points in the second half of the game is a credit to yet another solid performance by Soupy.
3 Stars
The Sandin-Dermott Pairing — We’ve come to expect great things from Rasmus Sandin offensively, especially in these sheltered minutes. He’s done a phenomenal job so far this season, leading the league by a long shot in the number of shots and scoring chances the team is generating when he’s on the ice. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the same kind of impact in this game, failing to create much of anything dangerous with his passing.
On the flip side, Travis Dermott is someone we don’t expect much of anything from offensively. For fun, I was looking up primary assist leaders among defensemen since 2018 and stumbled across his name — because he was dead last (2000 TOI minimum). He helps make up for his lack of offense by playing a tight gap in the neutral zone and forcing dump-ins, but at some point, his inability to complete passes in the offensive zone is something that really matters.
TJ Brodie (RD, #78) — I didn’t have too many notes on Brodie besides him blocking a few scoring chances, drawing a tripping penalty, and doing a good job of time-wasting on the penalty kill. Solid all-around game for him, but nothing to write home about.
2 Stars
Auston Matthews (C, #34) — Remember those early Hyman-Matthews-Brown lines that Mike Babcock used on the road? A Bunting-Matthews-Simmonds line runs into similar problems.
I’m well aware that Matthews scored a goal and assist with the man advantage in this game, but I’d like to focus more on his 5v5 play. We’ve seen star players like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, or even John Tavares in his prime play alongside two weaker wingers who have no business playing on a top line — and still find a way to generate offense at an elite level.
Matthews wasn’t able to accomplish that in this game. With Minnesota not worrying too much about Bunting or Simmonds, the lack of spacing really seemed to clog things up for Matthews, both off the rush and off the cycle. Things got so bad that Keefe eventually tried getting Nylander a few shifts with Matthews and even stacked the top line with Tavares at one point.
That’s a nice in-game adjustment, but you’d like to see Matthews singlehandedly slice through a neutral zone trap with his combination of size, skill and much-improved speed over the offseason. It’s really hard to maneuver your way through a defense when everyone in the building knows that you’re Plan A, B, and C, but that’s also why you pay a superstar such a high percentage of your cap.
As a side note, Matthews got caught puck-watching in the defensive zone on a goal against, which has happened a few times this season.
He’s still dominating puck possession at an elite rate, but you’d like to see Matthews with his head on a swivel a bit more often in defensive zone coverage. It probably feels like I’m nitpicking — and to some extent, I am. The reason I obsess so much over these little plays is that I see Matthews as a 50-60 goal threat with physical tools that could make him a legitimate Selke candidate.
It’s an archetype we’ve never seen before in NHL history. That type of player deserves to be held to a high standard on both sides of the puck.
William Nylander (RW, #88) — This wasn’t Nylander’s best game. Aside from one strong net drive, he struggled to get through Minnesota’s defenders off the rush. I did like a few of Nylander’s passes in the offensive zone, particularly a behind-the-net pass to Muzzin for a one-timer.
That said, Nylander is paid to be a zone entry wizard in transition and create offense. He struggled to accomplish that in this game, hence the two-star rating.
Pierre Engvall (LW, #47) — I always like bringing up the large samples of evidence that indicate Engvall is a legitimate third-line NHL forward, but sometimes, third-line NHL forwards have sub-par games. This was one of those nights from Engvall, who wasn’t as threatening as usual in transition with his speed. He also got decked by Matt Dumba on the breakout.
As a quick aside, Engvall was a bystander after the whistle when Rielly took a punch to the face. I hate to sound like an old-school hockey dad, but would it kill the 6’5, 215 pound player to get in there and stand up for one of the team’s leaders? I know it’s silly and has very little tangible impact on goal differential, but it feels like one of those “culture” things where Toronto gets pushed around unnecessarily.
Like I said, stupid, but I still think some of this stuff matters.
Nik Ritchie (LW, #20) — I could compliment Nick Ritchie for winning a few 50-50 pucks on the forecheck from below the goal line and completing the next pass onto a teammate’s stick. I could also point out he played under nine minutes in a game where Toronto desperately needed offense, which says a lot about how Keefe actually values his play.
I tend to fall in a similar boat considering Ritchie is currently dead least in the NHL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on EvolvingHockey.com, which is a stat that tries to encompass all aspects of play. Shooting zero percent plays a major factor in that, but so does taking bad penalties and failing to impact play without scoring.
Matthews’ Linemates — When your best player runs out of time and space against one of the best defensive teams in hockey, that’s when you’d like to see his linemates make a play or two with the puck to help alleviate some of that pressure. As much as we love Wayne Simmonds, he simply doesn’t have the puck skills or passing ability to keep up with a Matthews at 5v5.
As the third-best player on a line, we’ve seen Michael Bunting make enough of those “connective tissue” passes to help keep things going for Matthews-Marner offensively. As the second-best player on a line, Bunting is asked to do a bit more as a playmaker and can’t quite break down a defense.
1 Star
The Muzzin-Holl Pairing — As exciting as this last stretch of play has been from Toronto, this “shutdown” pair is still a huge cause for concern at the moment. Jake Muzzin is still getting beat off the rush and Justin Holl is still struggling to complete breakout passes.
Last season, these two managed to put up great results despite facing some of the toughest competition in hockey. This season, Toronto’s coaching staff is giving them some easier minutes because of their struggles and they’re still getting outplayed at even strength.
Considering Holl’s value on the trade market right now relative to the actual on-ice value he’s providing, I’d the pull the trigger on some kind of deal to recoup assets if I’m Kyle Dubas right now. When you adjust for context (i.e. playing with Toronto’s Top 6 and Jake Muzzin), the results at HockeyViz.com indicate that Holl has been an anchor at even strength over the past two seasons.
Muzzin hasn’t exactly helped matters this year coming off of another injury, but at least with him, we know there’s a long track record of strong 5v5 results regardless of who his partner is.
This begs the question: what would a Muzzin-Liljegren pair look like if they got an extended look for 10 games? My guess is they’d perform better than what we’ve seen from Muzzin-Holl this season.
Incomplete
Joey Anderson (RW, #20) — Let’s call this one an “incomplete” since he only played 3:53 against the Wild as a result of Keefe’s line shuffling and the team trailing for chunks of the game. I don’t think anyone can make a fair assessment based on that sample.
Heat Map
Here’s a quick look at where each team’s shots were coming from at even strength, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Toronto generated slightly more shot quantity than Minnesota (52%) but lost the shot quality battle, only controlling 45% of the scoring chances and 48% of the expected goals.
For anyone wondering, the xG on that Spezza shot from below the goal line was 0.01 — it had a 1% chance of going in.
Game Score
Game score is a metric developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn to measure single-game performance. You can read more about it here.
Tweets of the Night
You watch hockey for “scoring goals” and “offense”.
I watch hockey for “preventing goals” and “defense”.
Between him and Topi Niemala tearing up their respect leagues, the Leafs might actually have some decent prospect depth you weren’t expecting. Despite their limited draft capital, they’ve been able to find some good bets in the later rounds.
Can’t help but wonder what might have been if they’d put Spezza in that spot on the powerplay in the playoffs last year instead of going back to Thornton over and over again.
I’ll never understand why the Leafs’ brass thought Joe Thornton in the bumper spot of PP1 would work last year, especially when you have Spezza and Nylander sitting on the bench.
Every Leafs fan remembers that Jason Spezza was scratched for opening night in 2019.
But do you know what the 4th line was that night?Timashov – Shore – Gauthier. He didn’t play over Dmytro Timashov, Nick Shore, or Frederik Gauthier.
VANCOUVER – As the Major League Soccer season ticks down, Vanni Sartini wants his Vancouver Whitecaps to make a declaration — the team is ready to compete.
“The time of hiding ourselves, I think it’s over,” the coach said after the ‘Caps earned a 2-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
“We need to really say that we are here to try to be at the ball until the end and trying to shoot for the highest position. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make it, but we have the quality to do it.”
With seven games left on their regular-season schedule, the ‘Caps (13-8-6) sit in fifth spot in the congested Western Conference, just two points out of fourth.
Saturday’s loss officially eliminated the last-place Earthquakes (5-21-2) from post-season action.
Vancouver has been on a hot streak since returning from the Leagues Cup break and is unbeaten (3-0-1) in its last four outings across all competitions. The team has not allowed a goal in those matches.
“It’s the fact that we play really well,” Sartini said of the clean sheets. “We have the ball a lot, we finish our attack most of the time in their box. So it’s really hard for the other team to attack us. And then when they attack us, in the rare times that they arrive in the final third, we’re very solid.”
Recent additions have bolstered the team’s ranks, including the club’s newest designated player, Stuart Armstrong. The 32-year-old Scottish midfielder scored his first MLS goal Saturday.
Three minutes after coming on as a substitute for Alessandro Schopf, Armstrong gave Vancouver a two-goal cushion in the 87th minute.
Midfielder Pedro Vite dished a short pass to ‘Caps captain Ryan Gauld, who tapped it toward Armstrong. The former Southampton FC player then blasted a shot into the top of the net for his first strike in a Whitecaps’ jersey.
He was mobbed by teammates in the corner of the field.
“I think everyone was happy. Also for the first goal, but also that it was an important three points,” said Armstrong, who signed with the ‘Caps on Sept. 3.
“It kind of felt a little bit like last week, when we had a lot of chances and we didn’t get the three points. So today, I think everyone was just relieved to have that two-goal cushion.”
Vancouver was the dominant team from the outset Saturday and did not relent, outshooting the visitors 19-5 and controlling 54.1 per cent of possession.
Fafa Picault also found the back of the net for Vancouver, while Gauld contributed a pair of assists.
Whitecaps goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka stopped both shots he faced to collect his seventh clean sheet of the year, while Daniel made nine saves for the Quakes.
Gauld and Picault teamed up in the 22nd minute when Gauld curled a cross in and the Haitian striker headed it down toward the net, only to see Daniel catch a piece of the shot with his forearm and redirect it out of harm’s way.
The duo connected again in the 35th minute on a Vancouver corner. Gauld swung a ball in and Picault jumped up from the pack to send a glancing header in past Daniel for his ninth MLS goal of the season.
San Jose briefly appeared to level the score in the 68th minute when an unmarked Ousseni Bouda collected the ball, froze Takaoka and tapped a shot into the Vancouver net. An official quickly raised the offside flag and waved off the tally.
Daniel kept San Jose’s deficit to a single goal with a pair of solid stops in the 82nd minute.
First, the Brazilian ‘keeper dove sideways on his line to tip away a bomb from Alessandro Schopf. He was tested again on the ensuing corner and jumped up to send a header from Picault over the crossbar.
“I think we created a lot of chances again,” Gauld said.
“We probably should have put the game out of their reach sooner. But we’d be more worried if we weren’t creating the chances. Three clean sheets in a row in the league, I think it’s a big thing for us. And it gives us a good platform to go forward.”
NOTES
Vancouver played without leading scorer Brian White for a third consecutive game as the American striker works his way back from a concussion. … Gauld’s second assist marked his 15th goal contribution (six goals, nine assists) in his last 15 Whitecaps games across all competitions. … An announced crowd of 21,309 took in the game at B.C. Place.
UP NEXT
The Whitecaps kick off a two-game road swing Wednesday against the Houston Dynamo. The Earthquakes host the Seattle Sounders the same night.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
MANCHESTER, England (AP) — Not good enough. That was Arne Slot’s verdict after his first defeat as Liverpool manager on Saturday.
A shock 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League ended Slot’s perfect record since succeeding Jurgen Klopp at Anfield at the end of last season.
“We had a lot of ball possession but only managed to create three (or) four quite good chances, so that is by far not enough if you have so much ball possession,” said the Dutchman, who suggested his team should not be losing to the likes of Forest.
“If you lose a home game it’s always a setback, especially if you face a team … we never know, maybe they will go all the way to fight for Champions League tickets, but normally this team is not ending up in the top 10, so if you lose a game against them that’s a big disappointment.”
Slot won his first three games in charge, including a memorable 3-0 victory against Manchester United before the international break.
But that run came to an end after Callum Hudson-Odoi struck in the 72nd with a curling effort from the edge of the box and beyond goalkeeper Alisson.
Liverpool’s defeat leaves Manchester City as the only team with a 100% record in the league after a 2-1 win against Brentford kept the defending champion at the top of the table.
United won at Southampton 3-0 to end its two-game losing streak.
Unstoppable Haaland
Erling Haaland moved to 99 goals for City after scoring twice against Brentford.
The Norwegian’s double came after Yoane Wissa fired Brentford ahead with just 22 seconds on the clock.
Haaland scored his 98th and 99th goals in his 103rd City appearance in all competitions. And he was the width of the post away from his third consecutive hat trick after trebles against Ipswich and West Ham.
“He’s been really, really good. Yeah, I would say he’s the best (he’s been), but it’s only four fixtures (this season),” City manager Pep Guardiola said.
Haaland, who has been nominated for the Ballon d’Or, has nine goals in four league games. He has topped the league scoring charts in each of his two seasons at City since joining from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 for $63 million.
Haaland’s first goal after 19 minutes evened the game following Wissa’s opener, which stunned the Etihad Stadium crowd. Haaland turned and swept a shot past goalkeeper Mark Flekken after a slight deflection off Ethan Pinnock.
He was then too strong for Pinnock when shaking off the defender and running through for his second in the 32nd.
He was inches away in the 81st; the shot came back off the post after beating the keeper.
Rashford snaps run
Marcus Rashford snapped a 12-game barren run in front of goal as United beat Southampton.
Rashford doubled United’s lead at Saint Mary’s after Matthijs de Ligt’s scored his first for the club. Substitute Alejandro Garnacho scored a third in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
The win came after back-to-back defeats for United.
Rashford hadn’t scored since March in United’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals. He curled in a shot from the edge of the area to put Erik ten Hag’s team 2-0 up at Southampton in the 41st minute.
Ten Hag said it could be a turning point for the forward.
“For every striker, they want to be on the scoring list. Once the first is in, more is coming. Like a ketchup bottle, once it’s going, it’s coming more,” he said.
De Ligt, who joined United from Bayern Munich in the offseason, headed in from Bruno Fernandes’ cross in the 35th.
It could have been a different story if Cameron Archer converted a penalty for Southampton in the 33rd. Instead, his effort was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Newly promoted Southampton was reduced to 10 men when Jack Stephens was sent off in the 79th for a high challenge on Garnacho.
Villa comeback
After three straight defeats to start the league, Everton looked set for its first win when leading Aston Villa 2-0.
Goals from Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Sean Dyche’s team in control until Ollie Watkins struck twice to even the game.
Jhon Duran completed Villa’s comeback and sealed a 3-2 win in the 76th to leave Everton rooted to the bottom of the table and the only top flight team without a point.
Late drama
Jean-Philippe Mateta converted a stoppage time penalty to salvage a 2-2 draw for Crystal Palace against Leicester.
Leicester led 2-0 at Selhurst Park after goals from Jamie Vardy and Stephy Mavididi.
But Mateta sparked Palace’s response with a goal in the 47th, a minute after Mavididi doubled Leicester’s advantage.
Conor Coady fouled Ismaili Sarr in the box right near fulltime and Mateta was cool enough to convert.
West Ham left it even later to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
Danny Ings struck in the fifth minute of added time after Raul Jimenez’s goal looked like earning Fulham the win.
Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler, the manager of the month for August, was frustrated as his team was held to 0-0 at home by Ipswich.
CLEVELAND (AP) — Restricted free agent forward Isaac Okoro has agreed to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press on Saturday.
Okoro’s new deal is worth $38 million, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been signed or announced by the team.
ESPN.com first reported the agreement, citing Okoro’s representation.
The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft, Okoro is Cleveland’s best perimeter defender, often drawing the assignment of guarding the opponent’s top scorer. Okoro also has worked to improve his offensive game.
The 23-year-old averaged 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds in 69 games — 42 starts — last season for the Cavs, who beat Orlando in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to eventual champion Boston.
Okoro shot a career-best 39% on 3-pointers, forcing teams to come out and guard him.
His agreement caps an extraordinarily busy summer for the Cavs that began with coach J.B. Bickerstaff being fired and replaced by Kenny Atkinson. All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell signed a three-year, $150 million extension in July, ending months of speculation that he wanted out of Cleveland.
Also, power forward Evan Mobley signed a five-year, $224 deal and center Jarrett Allen signed a three-year, $91 million extension.
