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Economy

Mark Carney to lead Liberal economic task force ahead of next election

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will chair a Liberal task force on economic growth, the party announced Monday as Liberal MPs meet to strategize for the upcoming election year.

Long touted as a possible leadership successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Carney was already scheduled to address caucus as part of the retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., this week.

The Liberals say he will help shape the party’s policies for the next election, and will report to Trudeau and the Liberal platform committee.

“As chair of the Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth, Mark’s unique ideas and perspectives will play a vital role in shaping the next steps in our plan to continue to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class, and to urgently seize new opportunities for Canadian jobs and prosperity in a fast-changing world,” Trudeau said in a statement Monday.

Trudeau is expected to address Liberal members of Parliament later this week. It will be the first time he faces them as a group since MPs left Ottawa in the spring.

Still stinging from a devastating byelection loss earlier this summer, the caucus is now also reeling from news that its national campaign director has resigned and the party can no longer count on the NDP to stave off an early election.

Last week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended his agreement with Trudeau to have the New Democrats support the government on key votes in exchange for movement on priorities such as dental care.

All of this comes as the Liberals remain well behind the Conservatives in the polls despite efforts to refocus on issues like housing and affordability.

Some Liberal MPs hope to hear more about how Trudeau plans to win Canadians back when he addresses his team this week.

Carney appears to be part of that plan, attempting to bring some economic heft to a government that has struggled to resonate with voters who are struggling with inflation and soaring housing costs.

Trudeau said several weeks ago that he has long tried to coax Carney to join his government. The economist and former investment banker spent five years as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the last Conservative government before hopping across the pond to head up the Bank of England for seven years.

Carney is just one of a host of names suggested as possible successors to Trudeau, who has insisted he will lead the party into the next election despite simmering calls for him to step aside.

Those calls reached a new intensity earlier this summer when the Conservatives won a longtime Liberal stronghold in a major byelection upset in Toronto—St. Paul’s.

But Trudeau held fast to his decision to stay and rejected calls to convene his entire caucus over the summer to respond to their concerns about their collective prospects.

The prime minister has spoken with Liberal MPs one-on-one over the last few months and attended several regional meetings ahead of the Nanaimo retreat, including Ontario and Quebec, which together account for 70 per cent of the caucus.

While several Liberals who don’t feel comfortable speaking publicly say the meetings were positive, the party leader has mainly held to his message that he is simply focused on “delivering for Canadians.”

Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer was in Nanaimo ahead of the meeting to express his scorn for the Liberal strategy session, and for Carney’s involvement.

“It doesn’t matter what happens in this retreat, doesn’t matter what kinds of (communications) exercise they go through, or what kind of speculation they all entertain about who might lead them in the next election,” said Scheer, who called a small press conference on the Nanaimo harbourfront Monday.

“It’s the same failed Liberal policies causing the same hardships for Canadians.”

He said Carney and Trudeau are “basically the same people,” and that Carney has supported Liberal policies, including the carbon tax.

The three-day retreat is expected to include breakout meetings for the Indigenous, rural and women’s caucuses before the full group convenes later this week.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

September merchandise trade deficit narrows to $1.3 billion: Statistics Canada

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.

The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.

Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.

In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

How will the U.S. election impact the Canadian economy? – BNN Bloomberg

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How will the U.S. election impact the Canadian economy?  BNN Bloomberg

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