If Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are the two best players in the series, the Leafs’ chances of moving on will be high, obviously.
Matthews and Marner put together a pretty fine example of what that kind of dominance looks like back on April 4 in Tampa. That night, Matthews slipped three goals past Andrei Vasilevskiy, two of them set up by Marner.
Marner added a goal himself on a nifty steal-and-go from Matthews.
If the back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophy winner is going to do this, the Leafs will be hard to stop.
Of course, one sure rival for the duo in this series was absent that night: Ryan McDonagh, one of the very best stoppers in hockey.
“To me, he’s the best defender that they have,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said. “McDonagh knows exactly what his job is. He gets in the way and he’s gonna be physical and he’s gonna protect the net.”
Tampa will want McDonagh and partner Erik Cernak matched up against Matthews and Marner as often as possible. McDonagh went head-to-head with Matthews during a matchup in early November (Marner was playing with John Tavares that night) and shut him down.
Expected goals were 16 percent for the Leafs in the 11 minutes that Matthews was on the ice with McDonagh – and 77 percent when he wasn’t.
Things have changed quite a bit since then. For one, Matthews is long past the offseason wrist surgery that was still affecting his play in November. Marner also morphed into a monster scorer in the second half, all while still doing normal Marner things.
(Kim Klement / USA Today)
That’s the thing: Marner and Matthews were elite players last season when they faced Montreal. They’re even better this time around.
They force more turnovers and turn those looks into juicy offensive opportunities. They’re even more in sync after another full-ish season together.
“You can tell the way they move the puck as they’re exiting the zone and the way they move it within the neutral zone,” Morgan Rielly said of their chemistry at one point this season. “There’s a lot of great lines that don’t really do that. They go cross-ice a lot. They use each other. They cross under one another. When they’re confident and playing well, it really translates into every zone.”
Dominate the Matthews-Marner minutes and the Leafs will be in good shape. It’s the one line where they carry at least some sort of advantage. And you can bet Keefe will play them even more than he did in the regular season.
With home-ice advantage, Keefe can try to swap out some shifts against McDonagh for those against the less-fearsome (though not physically) Zach Bogosian.
Not having Bunting, in all likelihood, to start the series dings the unit a bit. His edge, energy, and instincts offensively blended perfectly with Matthews and Marner. Alex Kerfoot hasn’t spent much time with either player, though he is smart and adaptable.
Matthews will certainly need a little more luck on his side than he’s had in previous playoffs. The 24-year-old shot 2.9 percent in seven games against the Habs last year, 7.4 percent against the Blue Jackets in 2020, and 3.7 percent two years before that in another seven-game series against the Bruins.
The Leafs win the power-play war
Another development that could propel the Leafs into the second round: Their power play can really cook this time.
Take a second to recall how funky things were on the power play heading into last year’s playoffs. The Leafs hobbled into that Montreal series with one of the worst units in the league.
Things are much different now. This is the No. 1 power play in the league.
The top group is a shape-shifting monster that’s no longer predictable or entirely dependent on one thing – i.e. the Matthews blast. In fact, over the final 30 games of the season, William Nylander led the team with seven power-play goals, followed by Matthews and John Tavares with four apiece.
The Leafs scored four times on 11 chances against the Bolts’ penalty kill, though one was in OT and another came from Ilya Mikheyev during that recent 8-1 shellacking.
Because the Lightning own a pretty wicked power play themselves, one that’s especially hot coming into this series, winning the power-play war could be a deciding factor in this series.
Jack Campbell is Andrei Vasilevskiy’s equal (or pretty close)
The Leafs haven’t won the goalie matchup in any of their five consecutive playoff defeats.
They head into this one with, clearly, the second-best guy. Andrei Vasilevskiy is as good as it gets, a 6-foot-3, 225-pound rock star who dominated during Tampa’s back-to-back Stanley Cup runs.
Jack Campbell doesn’t necessarily need to best that guy. He’s got an offence in front of him that might need only a par performance. Just solid — not unlike how Campbell played down the stretch (7-0-2, with a .915 save percentage after he returned from a rib injury and late-season reset).
Campbell just needs to make the saves he’s supposed to make.
(Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
Keep the bad goals to a minimum.
Campbell had those moments against the Habs last spring. So did Frederik Andersen in the playoffs before that. Cut those out and keep it close with Vasilevskiy and one clear Lightning advantage dissipates.
“I’m just trying to do the best I can,” Campbell said. “I have total faith in the guys in front of me. We all do our jobs, and I have total belief that we can get the job done.”
Sheldon Keefe outmaneuvers Jon Cooper
Keefe noted recently how different his third NHL playoff series will be from the two that preceded it.
No. 1: The Leafs will have fans at Scotiabank Arena this time around after mostly empty buildings in 2020 and 2021. Home-ice advantage should mean a little more.
No. 2: The head coach has a staff he chose fully in place. Keefe inherited Dave Hakstol and Paul McFarland from Mike Babcock when he took over midway through the 2019-20 season. He brought Manny Malholtra and Paul MacLean in ahead of his first full season. Dean Chynoweth and Spencer Carbery were added this season. These are his guys.
Keefe will be facing the league’s gold standard behind the bench right now in Jon Cooper. No easy opponent, obviously, and one with loads more playoff experience in the NHL.
Keefe pressed a lot of the right buttons during a record-setting regular season. Decision-making from behind the bench becomes a lot more fraught in the playoffs. The margin for error gets thinner than ever. And throughout those first two playoff series, Keefe wavered between doing too much and not enough.
The Leafs coach is already making some interesting choices ahead of Game 1. He appears set to give Ondrej Kase a go on the second line. Kase hasn’t played since mid-March because of a concussion. Sunday marked his first full practice.
The prospective line of Tavares, Kase, and Mikheyev has spent zero time together, though Kase and Mikheyev have both played a fair bit with Tavares.
Related: Keefe seems inclined to keep William Nylander rolling on a third unit with Pierre Engvall and David Kampf.
Projected Game 1 lineup
Line
LW
C
RW
Lyubushkin
He’s also planning to roll out Kyle Cliffordand Wayne Simmonds on a fourth line centered by Colin Blackwell. It’s admittedly an attempt to match Tampa’s physicality in what Keefe expects will be a “borderline violent” series.
Keefe will need to figure out quickly if Jake Muzzin can handle the strain of trying to slow down Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov — and be ready to pivot if not. Other looming decisions could include whether to reconnect Tavares and Nylander, whether to dress Timothy Liljegren and/or Ilya Lyubushkin over Justin Holl, how to match up with that Tampa top line, and how to react if Matthews and Marner — or the team at large — are somehow stymied early in the series.
Choose right more often than not and the Cooper edge disappears.
The fourth line survives
Tampa owns a legit fourth line, maybe the best there is in the NHL.
Physicality, energy, general peskiness, and the ability to put a few pucks in the net. Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare combine to bring a bit of everything, including three goals in four games against the Leafs.
Hold that line to a draw in the head-to-head fourth line showdown and Keefe will be happy. Score the odd goal and muster meaningful, momentum-turning energy from the bottom of the lineup and the Leafs coach will be thrilled.
Are Clifford and Simmonds, playing with Blackwell, the answer? The Leafs were hammered (35 percent expected goals) in their limited minutes together this season. A trio like that may be nasty, but seems unlikely to get much done offensively.
Simmonds totaled one goal and four points over his last 39 games. Clifford mustered one goal and three points in his 23 games.
At some point, Jason Spezza will get an opportunity. And in fact, the most effective of the various fourth-line combos down the stretch featured Spezza, Blackwell, and Clifford (59 percent).
(Kim Klement / USA Today)
This might seem like a very marginal part of the series. And in some ways it is. But if the Leafs can’t roll their fourth line out every now and again and not see the ice get tilted, Tampa gains a clear edge.
John Tavares and/or William Nylander shine
It’s still not clear if Tavares and Nylander will play together regularly in this series or not.
Last week, Keefe said he was leaning toward reuniting them after a month-long absence. At Sunday’s practice, they were back apart.
Regardless of where they start, Tavares and Nylander will hook back up from time to time throughout the series. Keefe regularly sprinkled Nylander in for shifts with Tavares over the last month.
Together or apart, the Leafs need them to produce.
A rocking performance from Tavares and Nylander and suddenly the Lightning have to worry about more than just Matthews and Marner.
Mikheyev could be a sneaky difference-maker playing alongside Tavares. He’s never looked better in the NHL, finishing with a career-best 21 goals in only 53 games during the regular season.
Mikheyev was a non-factor in his first two postseasons. He’s still searching for his first playoff point.
Keeping Tavares and Nylander apart signals Keefe’s desire for a third line, led by Nylander, that can actually produce. It seems like a lot to ask Kase to come back after six weeks of inaction and play second-line minutes and competition straight away. He’s also proven he can put the puck in the net, which gives the Leafs one more threat in the middle six.
There’s no better time than now for Tavares to have his first real playoff moment with the Leafs.
He put together a solid, if unspectacular, series against Patrice Bergeron and the Bruins in 2019, he was quiet in the 2020 loss to Columbus and he was hurt for all but three minutes of the 2021 series with the Habs.
A punchy performance now would be big for him, and for the Leafs, especially if it’s coupled with a second straight headlining showing from Nylander.
The D holds up
The biggest question of all on D is Muzzin, and whether he can a) hold up physically playing every other night and b) still handle high-end competition.
Maybe 75 percent of Muzzin will be enough. Maybe he kills just enough plays before they have a chance to get started. Maybe he limits net-front intruders with his 6-foot-3, 226-pound frame, and is just spry enough to stay in front of Tampa’s speedy forwards.
Stamkos and Kucherov are a massive challenge though. Nobody was hotter than Stamkos down the stretch. Nobody put up more points than Kucherov over the past two playoffs.
If Muzzin holds up, the Leafs are in business. If not, a quick pivot — to less Muzzin and more Mark Giordano — will be a must. One thing I’ve been wondering: Is Muzzin at 75 percent really a better option than Giordano, even at age 38? I’m not so sure. There’s a case to be made that the Leafs should start with Muzzin in a reduced role.
His leash will — or should — be short.
Giordano and Timothy Liljegren have shown they can swallow up secondary competition together. This will be – by far – Liljegren’s biggest test in the NHL. He needs to show that he won’t be outmuscled around his own net.
This kinda thing can’t happen:
For Ilya Lyubushkin, bouncer duties around the blue paint aren’t in question. But can he keep mistakes with the puck to a minimum when the pace heats up?
At the very least, Keefe and his staff have created options with all their experimentation. TJ Brodie and Holl can reunite, if needed. So can Rielly and Brodie. Heck, maybe Brodie and Giordano hop in the time machine and get back together. Rasmus Sandin is inching closer to availability.
On paper, this looks like the best defence the Leafs have had in recent memory. Now’s the time to prove it.
The Leafs stay healthy
Good fortune here is almost a must. Injuries stung the Leafs, badly, in those 2020 and 2021 series.
Tavares was lost moments into Game 1 against Montreal. Nick Foligno, the team’s big trade deadline addition, missed three games. Muzzin injured his groin in Game 6. He also missed the final three games of the Columbus series a year earlier.
Muzzin enters these playoffs having missed most of the second half due to multiple concussions and an undisclosed ailment.
“He continues to battle through, and he’s gonna have to continue to do that,” Keefe said of Muzzin. “He’s not really playing at 100 percent. That’s the reality.”
Can he stay healthy-ish?
The Leafs can’t really afford any issues up front, not with Bunting on the mend and Kase still something of a question mark.
As with any team at this time of year, the Leafs primarily need their most important players to stay healthy – Matthews, Marner, Campbell, Rielly, etc. If that happens, along with some of the other items in play here, their chances of moving on to the second round for the first time since 2004 rise higher.
(Top photo: Winslow Townson / USA Today)
Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Stat Head, and Evolving Hockey
VANCOUVER – As the Major League Soccer season ticks down, Vanni Sartini wants his Vancouver Whitecaps to make a declaration — the team is ready to compete.
“The time of hiding ourselves, I think it’s over,” the coach said after the ‘Caps earned a 2-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
“We need to really say that we are here to try to be at the ball until the end and trying to shoot for the highest position. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make it, but we have the quality to do it.”
With seven games left on their regular-season schedule, the ‘Caps (13-8-6) sit in fifth spot in the congested Western Conference, just two points out of fourth.
Saturday’s loss officially eliminated the last-place Earthquakes (5-21-2) from post-season action.
Vancouver has been on a hot streak since returning from the Leagues Cup break and is unbeaten (3-0-1) in its last four outings across all competitions. The team has not allowed a goal in those matches.
“It’s the fact that we play really well,” Sartini said of the clean sheets. “We have the ball a lot, we finish our attack most of the time in their box. So it’s really hard for the other team to attack us. And then when they attack us, in the rare times that they arrive in the final third, we’re very solid.”
Recent additions have bolstered the team’s ranks, including the club’s newest designated player, Stuart Armstrong. The 32-year-old Scottish midfielder scored his first MLS goal Saturday.
Three minutes after coming on as a substitute for Alessandro Schopf, Armstrong gave Vancouver a two-goal cushion in the 87th minute.
Midfielder Pedro Vite dished a short pass to ‘Caps captain Ryan Gauld, who tapped it toward Armstrong. The former Southampton FC player then blasted a shot into the top of the net for his first strike in a Whitecaps’ jersey.
He was mobbed by teammates in the corner of the field.
“I think everyone was happy. Also for the first goal, but also that it was an important three points,” said Armstrong, who signed with the ‘Caps on Sept. 3.
“It kind of felt a little bit like last week, when we had a lot of chances and we didn’t get the three points. So today, I think everyone was just relieved to have that two-goal cushion.”
Vancouver was the dominant team from the outset Saturday and did not relent, outshooting the visitors 19-5 and controlling 54.1 per cent of possession.
Fafa Picault also found the back of the net for Vancouver, while Gauld contributed a pair of assists.
Whitecaps goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka stopped both shots he faced to collect his seventh clean sheet of the year, while Daniel made nine saves for the Quakes.
Gauld and Picault teamed up in the 22nd minute when Gauld curled a cross in and the Haitian striker headed it down toward the net, only to see Daniel catch a piece of the shot with his forearm and redirect it out of harm’s way.
The duo connected again in the 35th minute on a Vancouver corner. Gauld swung a ball in and Picault jumped up from the pack to send a glancing header in past Daniel for his ninth MLS goal of the season.
San Jose briefly appeared to level the score in the 68th minute when an unmarked Ousseni Bouda collected the ball, froze Takaoka and tapped a shot into the Vancouver net. An official quickly raised the offside flag and waved off the tally.
Daniel kept San Jose’s deficit to a single goal with a pair of solid stops in the 82nd minute.
First, the Brazilian ‘keeper dove sideways on his line to tip away a bomb from Alessandro Schopf. He was tested again on the ensuing corner and jumped up to send a header from Picault over the crossbar.
“I think we created a lot of chances again,” Gauld said.
“We probably should have put the game out of their reach sooner. But we’d be more worried if we weren’t creating the chances. Three clean sheets in a row in the league, I think it’s a big thing for us. And it gives us a good platform to go forward.”
NOTES
Vancouver played without leading scorer Brian White for a third consecutive game as the American striker works his way back from a concussion. … Gauld’s second assist marked his 15th goal contribution (six goals, nine assists) in his last 15 Whitecaps games across all competitions. … An announced crowd of 21,309 took in the game at B.C. Place.
UP NEXT
The Whitecaps kick off a two-game road swing Wednesday against the Houston Dynamo. The Earthquakes host the Seattle Sounders the same night.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
MANCHESTER, England (AP) — Not good enough. That was Arne Slot’s verdict after his first defeat as Liverpool manager on Saturday.
A shock 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League ended Slot’s perfect record since succeeding Jurgen Klopp at Anfield at the end of last season.
“We had a lot of ball possession but only managed to create three (or) four quite good chances, so that is by far not enough if you have so much ball possession,” said the Dutchman, who suggested his team should not be losing to the likes of Forest.
“If you lose a home game it’s always a setback, especially if you face a team … we never know, maybe they will go all the way to fight for Champions League tickets, but normally this team is not ending up in the top 10, so if you lose a game against them that’s a big disappointment.”
Slot won his first three games in charge, including a memorable 3-0 victory against Manchester United before the international break.
But that run came to an end after Callum Hudson-Odoi struck in the 72nd with a curling effort from the edge of the box and beyond goalkeeper Alisson.
Liverpool’s defeat leaves Manchester City as the only team with a 100% record in the league after a 2-1 win against Brentford kept the defending champion at the top of the table.
United won at Southampton 3-0 to end its two-game losing streak.
Unstoppable Haaland
Erling Haaland moved to 99 goals for City after scoring twice against Brentford.
The Norwegian’s double came after Yoane Wissa fired Brentford ahead with just 22 seconds on the clock.
Haaland scored his 98th and 99th goals in his 103rd City appearance in all competitions. And he was the width of the post away from his third consecutive hat trick after trebles against Ipswich and West Ham.
“He’s been really, really good. Yeah, I would say he’s the best (he’s been), but it’s only four fixtures (this season),” City manager Pep Guardiola said.
Haaland, who has been nominated for the Ballon d’Or, has nine goals in four league games. He has topped the league scoring charts in each of his two seasons at City since joining from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 for $63 million.
Haaland’s first goal after 19 minutes evened the game following Wissa’s opener, which stunned the Etihad Stadium crowd. Haaland turned and swept a shot past goalkeeper Mark Flekken after a slight deflection off Ethan Pinnock.
He was then too strong for Pinnock when shaking off the defender and running through for his second in the 32nd.
He was inches away in the 81st; the shot came back off the post after beating the keeper.
Rashford snaps run
Marcus Rashford snapped a 12-game barren run in front of goal as United beat Southampton.
Rashford doubled United’s lead at Saint Mary’s after Matthijs de Ligt’s scored his first for the club. Substitute Alejandro Garnacho scored a third in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
The win came after back-to-back defeats for United.
Rashford hadn’t scored since March in United’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals. He curled in a shot from the edge of the area to put Erik ten Hag’s team 2-0 up at Southampton in the 41st minute.
Ten Hag said it could be a turning point for the forward.
“For every striker, they want to be on the scoring list. Once the first is in, more is coming. Like a ketchup bottle, once it’s going, it’s coming more,” he said.
De Ligt, who joined United from Bayern Munich in the offseason, headed in from Bruno Fernandes’ cross in the 35th.
It could have been a different story if Cameron Archer converted a penalty for Southampton in the 33rd. Instead, his effort was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Newly promoted Southampton was reduced to 10 men when Jack Stephens was sent off in the 79th for a high challenge on Garnacho.
Villa comeback
After three straight defeats to start the league, Everton looked set for its first win when leading Aston Villa 2-0.
Goals from Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Sean Dyche’s team in control until Ollie Watkins struck twice to even the game.
Jhon Duran completed Villa’s comeback and sealed a 3-2 win in the 76th to leave Everton rooted to the bottom of the table and the only top flight team without a point.
Late drama
Jean-Philippe Mateta converted a stoppage time penalty to salvage a 2-2 draw for Crystal Palace against Leicester.
Leicester led 2-0 at Selhurst Park after goals from Jamie Vardy and Stephy Mavididi.
But Mateta sparked Palace’s response with a goal in the 47th, a minute after Mavididi doubled Leicester’s advantage.
Conor Coady fouled Ismaili Sarr in the box right near fulltime and Mateta was cool enough to convert.
West Ham left it even later to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
Danny Ings struck in the fifth minute of added time after Raul Jimenez’s goal looked like earning Fulham the win.
Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler, the manager of the month for August, was frustrated as his team was held to 0-0 at home by Ipswich.
CLEVELAND (AP) — Restricted free agent forward Isaac Okoro has agreed to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press on Saturday.
Okoro’s new deal is worth $38 million, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been signed or announced by the team.
ESPN.com first reported the agreement, citing Okoro’s representation.
The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft, Okoro is Cleveland’s best perimeter defender, often drawing the assignment of guarding the opponent’s top scorer. Okoro also has worked to improve his offensive game.
The 23-year-old averaged 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds in 69 games — 42 starts — last season for the Cavs, who beat Orlando in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to eventual champion Boston.
Okoro shot a career-best 39% on 3-pointers, forcing teams to come out and guard him.
His agreement caps an extraordinarily busy summer for the Cavs that began with coach J.B. Bickerstaff being fired and replaced by Kenny Atkinson. All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell signed a three-year, $150 million extension in July, ending months of speculation that he wanted out of Cleveland.
Also, power forward Evan Mobley signed a five-year, $224 deal and center Jarrett Allen signed a three-year, $91 million extension.
