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Meet the Nostradamus of American presidential politics

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Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C, has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984.

So how does he do it? With a crystal ball? Tarot readings? Ayahuasca retreats in the desert? No, he does it with science. Specifically, by applying the science of plate tectonics to American history and politics.

Lichtman developed the metrics for his predictions with the help of an earthquake specialist from Moscow in 1981 and uses 13 historical factors or “keys” to determine presidential races—four of those factors are based on politics, seven on performance, and two on the candidate’s personality. The incumbent party would need to lose six of those factors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.

In a recent phone interview with USA Today, Lichtman shared how he developed his method and what his thoughts are on the 2024 presidential race between the two party’s presumptive nominees: President Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump.

How did you become interested in presidential politics?

I grew up in a very political family and we’d always discuss politics at the dinner table. In 1960, when I was 13 years old, I got to go to a John F. Kennedy rally in New York City and was utterly inspired. He just blew us young people away, and since then, I have followed up on my interest in politics.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

More:Professor Allan Lichtman’s 2024 presidential pick

How did your knack for predicting presidential elections develop?

Like so many other good ideas, I came across the keys serendipitously when I was a visiting distinguished scholar at the California Institute of Technology in southern California in 1981.

There I met the world’s leading authority on earthquake prediction, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the head of the Institute of Pattern Recognition and Earthquake Prediction in Moscow and it was his idea to collaborate. Get this: In 1963 he was a member of the Soviet Scientific Delegation that came to Washington D.C. under JFK and negotiated the most important treaty by far in the history of the world: the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Keilis-Borok said, “In Washington, I fell in love with politics and always wanted to use the methods of earthquake prediction to predict elections.” But, he said, “I live in the Soviet Union – elections? Forget it. It’s the supreme leader or off with your head. But you, you’re an expert in American history and politics, together we can solve the problem.”

So, we became “The Odd Couple” of political research and we re-conceptualized presidential elections in earthquake terms: As stability – the party holding the White House keeps the White House, and earthquake – the party is turned out.

With that in mind, we looked at every American presidential election from the horse-and-buggy days of politics, the election of Lincoln in 1860 to the election of Reagan in 1980, using Keilis-Borok’s mathematical method of pattern recognition.

It was that retrospective investigation that led to the “13 Keys to the White House”: simple true-false questions that probe whether or not there’s going to be stability or earthquake, and our six-key decision rule, or the six keys that go against the White House party.

What did we see in 2020?

Very interesting election, where I did correctly predict Trump would lose and Biden would win.

In 2019, Trump was only down four keys. Remember, it takes six keys to count out the White House party. I hadn’t made a prediction yet, but things were looking pretty good. Then the pandemic hit.

When I predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 – which you can imagine did not make me very popular in 90% Democratic Washington D.C. where I teach – Trump actually sent me a note on the Washington Post article where I predicted his win that said, “Congrats Professor, good call.”

He appreciated my call but he didn’t understand the meaning of the keys. The keys primarily probe the strength and performance of the White House party.

The big message: It is governance, not campaigning, that counts. Trump didn’t understand that. So when the pandemic hit, instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic like the keys would have indicated, he tried to talk his way out of it. Of course, it didn’t work; the economy tanked, and he lost two additional keys: The short- and long-term economy. That put him down six keys, enough to predict his defeat.

You don’t plan to unveil your 2024 prediction until around August, but what are you thinking and seeing now?

Forget the polls, forget the pundits.

Polls six months, five months, even closer to the election have zero predictive value.

Forget all of the pundits who have said Biden’s too old. Democrat’s only chance to win is with Biden running for re-election. One of my keys is incumbency, he obviously wins that. Another key is party contest, he’s not been contested. That’s two keys off the top that Biden wins. That means six keys out of the remaining 11 would have to fall to predict his defeat.

I’ve also said while I have no final prediction, a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.

Are there any upsets on the horizon that we should keep an eye out for?

Right now, Biden is only down, for sure, two keys: The mandate key, because the Democrats lost seats in the House 2022 elections; and the incumbent charisma key because Biden is no JFK. But there are four very shaky keys:

  • Third-party: Now, to win the third-party key, the third-party candidate has to get at least 5% of the popular vote. Very few have gotten that. There has to be a stabilization of the vote for the third-party candidate as we get closer to the election, and right now, RFK Jr. is all over the map. I’ve seen him as low as 3% and as high as 15%. That key is shaky but uncertain.
  • Social unrest: I thought it was pretty well locked in, in favor of the incumbent but the campus protests made it shaky.
  • And of course, the two foreign policy keys: Success and failure – both shaky, given that we have two very uncertain wars raging in the Middle East and in Ukraine.

Biden would have to lose all four of those or some other unexpected event like a sudden recession, to lose.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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