Investors will return to the presale condo market, “but it’s a much more longer-view investor. It’s not the speculator that we were seeing in 2016 and 2017.”
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Feb 23, 2021 • 3 hours ago • 2 minute read
Sales and prices for detached homes, condos and apartments have defied predictions that they would drop due to the pandemic. Fuelled by low interest rates, it’s been called the COVID-19 real estate boom.
What doesn’t show up in the monthly real estate board numbers are sales in the new or presale condo market where buyers purchase contracts for condos from developers who then build them. The market for these sales had just been showing signs of recovering when the pandemic shutdown happened in March 2020.
On Wednesday, Michael Ferreira of Urban Analytics, which tracks presale statistics and trends, will address a virtual luncheon for over 500 members of the Urban Development Institute, which represents the development industry.
Ferreira said that even though new, multi-family or presale condo sales in 2020 were the third-lowest since 2011, “it’s pretty remarkable that we finished with as many sales as we did,” considering the market was “basically paralyzed in the second quarter.”
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In particular, he points to an encouraging rally in the last quarter of 2020 when there were 3,800 presale condo sales. To compare, in the last quarter of 2018, there were 4,100 presale condo sales before the number dropped to 2,400 in the last quarter of 2019.
“We’re just 300 less (sales) than what we saw in 2018,” when sales and prices for presale condos were still rising, said Ferreira. “This time around (in 2020), I think it was really just a function of a window or opportunity where interest rates were low.
“Prices had flattened after the (provincial) government-induced (tax) policies in 2018, that really took hold in 2019,” said Ferreira. “There was a bunch of pent-up demand from that that got released. And the results of that happened especially in the second half of (2020).”
Investors had been on the sidelines, he said. They “took their time to gauge what was going to happen as far as what they kept hearing. You know the predictions of prices dropping, the infamous (call by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.) that there would be a nine-to-18 per cent drop in real estate values.”
Ahead, he thinks, “we are going to see the investor (buyer) come back into the market, but it’s a much more longer-view investor. It’s not the speculator that we were seeing in 2016 and 2017,” when there were double-digit percentage price gains each year.
There are a lot of new condos “lining up to be released (for sale) into the market” for the rest of 2021. Because of this, prices won’t be rising, especially for highrise projects where there will be a higher number of units available.
But once travel restrictions are lifted and immigration resumes, that will change, said Ferreira. There will be renewed demand from buyers who have been “planning and wanting to move here and immigrate here. They may have started the process and gotten interrupted” by the pandemic.
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OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada’s home sales and price growth will moderate over the coming years from the unsustainable levels of 2020, but remain elevated, with housing starts expected to stabilize by the end of 2023, the national housing agency said on Thursday.
While the pace of price growth is expected to ease as mortgage rates increase and buyers face already high prices, home prices could climb 14.4% on average in 2021, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecast in its spring market outlook.
Its report does not forecast any annual price declines in the 2021-2023 period.
“Economic conditions are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023 … This includes the pace of home sales and prices, which we expect to see moderate from 2020 highs over the same period,” Bob Dugan, chief economist at the CMHC, said in a statement.
Dugan warned that significant risks that could impact the forecast include the path of the COVID-19 pandemic, a faster-than-expected increase in mortgage rates, and a reversal of the urban exodus that has driven up prices outside large cities.
The CMHC said last May that it expected housing starts, sales and prices to plunge amid the pandemic, with prices not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2022.
But home sales and prices soared to record levels, with the average selling price up 31.6% in March 2021 from a year ago. Housing starts also hit a record high in March.
Rental demand is also expected to recover through 2023 as immigration and inter-provincial migration resume, and as students return to campus, the agency said.
(Reporting by Julie Gordon in OttawaEditing by Paul Simao)
It was just minutes after a new listing for a $1.15-million home in Canmore, Alta., went online when real estate agent Jill Law’s phone started buzzing.
Three days and 31 showings later, she had received 11 offers for the property, including one from a family who wrote a personal letter to the seller and included a family photo.
It appears to be the winning “bid” in a soaring real estate market that is seeing more multiple offers and properties selling above the asking price.
Real estate professionals, market watchers and long-time residents say there’s a combination of factors at play, including the pandemic and low interest rates. But the sales surge and rising prices are raising concerns in the community — which still considers itself a place where families can raise their children rather than an exclusive playground for the privileged.
The average house price in Canmore is closing in on $1.1 million, according to the Alberta Real Estate Association’s benchmark price.
“Sales are up, the inventory is down,” said Dan Sparks, one of Canmore’s busiest real estate agents, who has been selling homes in the Bow Valley for 20 years.
But there are fewer homes to sell. There are approximately 100 homes on the market right now. When you factor in the number of sales, it works out to a one-month supply, down sharply from the usual five- to six-month supply at this time of year.
What does all of that mean? To put it mildly, it’s a sellers’ market.
“We’ve had exceptional sales throughout the Canmore area, but the listings and the supply haven’t kept pace,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, the chief economist with the Alberta Real Estate Association.
“And that’s what’s causing some of the price gains that we’re seeing in that market.”
And some of those price gains have been astronomical.
Kelly MacMillan with ReMax Alpine Realty says she just sold a hotel condominium unit for $50,000 above the asking price.
The two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo — which has the potential to generate nightly hotel revenue — was listed for $600,000. The sellers purchased the property four years ago for $350,000.
“There was an opportunity to cash out of the marketplace,” said MacMillan.
“They’re very happy,” she said of her clients.
Pandemic pushes demand
Sparks calls it COVID fatigue. Although he has been taking calls from people in Toronto and Montreal — and even a family in Germany — a good portion of buyers are people from Calgary and Edmonton who have been stuck at home for over a year and are looking for a change of scenery, he says.
“They’ve been working from home for a while, and they can continue to do so. And if they can do that, then they’ll do it where they want to be,” he said.
“Canmore, especially recreational markets, where people are discovering that they don’t have to be where they work. They have that work-from-home flexibility.”
As the inventory dwindles, so do the opportuniites to find a traditional, single family, detached home. Sparks says last week there were just two homes listed for under $1 million — and only five were on the market for under $1.5 million.
Sparks spent several years on the board of directors of Canmore Community Housing, a town-owned corporation tasked with creating affordable housing options for people and families.
A 10-unit townhouse project is under construction and is expected to open in early 2022.
Already there are 150 people on the waiting list to either buy or rent a property.
“It’s basically just fingers in the dam,” said Sparks.
“Housing affordability in Canmore is always going to be a problem. We’re just going to constantly be working on that problem.”
The average condominium price in Canmore is now $500,000.
New development, more affordable housing?
Canmore town council recently approved a series of amendments to the latest development plan for the Three Sisters Mountain Village (TSMV) on the east side of the community.
One of the changes is a proposed requirement that the developer include 20 per cent affordable or subsidized housing — double the amount proposed by TSMV. A spokesperson for the developer says the company is still assessing the impact of the amendments and is withholding comment until the plan goes back to council on May 11.
The mayor says that while it will take years for those units to become available, council had to act now.
John Borrowman says young families have been leaving the community for years because they can’t afford to stay.
“We’ve been bleeding the next generation like that for years,” he said.
“If we don’t do something to ensure affordable housing is a big part of our future, the town will become … it will only be a place for the very wealthy.”
New housing options, slow uptake
The town recently said it would consider secondary suites to be built or legalized in existing neighbourhoods. Financial incentives are being offered to homeowners to add what it calls “accessory dwelling units.”
So far, only three homeowners have applied for the $20,000 grants.
Dale Hildebrand is a local real estate agent and builder. He recently sold two duplexes that were listed for $1.2 million and $1.4 million. One of them includes a separate, one-bedroom suite.
Hildebrand’s next project is in the early stages, but he’s hoping to redevelop several residential lots near downtown into 16 to 18 townhouses. Several will be purpose-built for employers to purchase for their employees.
“They can … rent them out to their employees at a subsidized rate,” said Hildebrand.
But as demand remains strong and prices climb, the market may be too hot for employers to consider employee housing.
It’s a problem for the community, which has had trouble attracting employees.
“It’s harder for young people to find affordable accommodation,” said Michel Dufresne, the director of the Job Resource Centre for Banff and Canmore.
“It also makes it harder for small businesses to provide that housing for their employees. It’s become a bigger play when you have to buy a house for a million dollars to house five people,” he said.
“It’s very costly.”
Bryan Labby is an enterprise reporter with CBC Calgary. If you have a good story idea or tip, you can reach him at email@example.com or on Twitter at @CBCBryan.
From luxury properties to townhomes, the Canadian real estate market has witnessed monumental growth over the last year. Across the country, sales activity and home valuations have been climbing at levels never seen before, buoyed by strong demand, low inventory and historically low interest rates. These are the dominant trends, whether you’re house-hunting in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia or Halifax, Nova Scotia.
But one of the most riveting developments in the Canadian real estate market since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic has been the substantial price increases for cottage properties. While cottage country markets across the country have typically witnessed high demand during the summer months, evolving consumer trends are pointing to sustained interest throughout the year in rural communities.
Since more people are working from home, professionals are setting their sights on lakefront cottages, chalets in the mountains or cabins in the woods, away from the hustle and bustle of major urban centres. But as homeowners cash in on their big-city properties, they are using their high equity to outbid buyers (including local residents and their fellow out-of-town buyers) and driving up cottage prices in the process. Many forecasts suggest that this impressive growth will continue through 2021 and potentially heading into 2022.
Has the Canadian real estate market been permanently altered as more households shy away from hyper-dense metropolitan areas to embrace the charm of quiet small-town life? The answer might be reflected in the numbers across multiple recreational housing markets from coast to coast.
Prices for Cottage Properties in Canadian Real Estate Market Soar
If you are currently trying rent a cottage in rural Ontario, you may be out of luck as the vast majority are fully booked for the rest of 2021. Similarly, if you’re keen to buy a cottage in Atlantic Canada, be prepared to put up a fight thanks to swelling levels of demand as a result of out-of-province buyers and cheap borrowing costs.
Here are some of the figures of what homebuyers can expect to face as they seek shelter in Canada’s recreational property markets:
Median price for residential non-waterfront properties: +44.7% to $606,000
Median price for residential waterfront properties: +64.5% to $872,000
Georgian Bay, Ontario (March 2021 / yoy)
Residential sales: +106.1%
Benchmark price for single-family homes: +43.6% to $617,900
Sunshine Coast, British Columbia (December 2020 / yoy)
Residential sales: +82%
Median price of residential properties: +7.8% to $830,000
Prince Albert, Saskatchewan (March 2021 / yoy)
Residential sales: +79.2%
MLS® Home Price Index (HPI): +12.1% to $183,100
Prince Edward Island (March 2021 / yoy)
Residential sales: +81.7%
Average price of homes sold: +21.9% to $330,121
Lethbridge, Alberta (March 2021 / yoy)
Single-detached home sales: +59.6%
Median sale price for single-detached homes: +14% to $335,000
What to Expect for Cottage Real Estate Moving Forward?
Whether you desire to go fishing on a lake or sip coffee on the patio of your waterfront property, be prepared to open your wallet wide. Cottage country prices are still expected to increase, especially now that the busy spring and summer home-buying season has arrived. This historically active period is anticipated to be busier than ever before. At the very least, prices are expected to continue rising.
Like Toronto or Vancouver, cottage areas are experiencing low inventory. A dramatic supply imbalance is leading to bidding wars for active and new listings. While this was unheard-of just a few short years ago, it has become the norm in many recreational communities across Canada. Work-from-home arrangements, the demand for less-densified areas and larger living spaces paired with ultra low interest rates are the key drivers of this unprecedented growth within destinations that would be difficult to spot on a map.
As the Financial Post wrote in February, “Cottage country is the new battleground for housing bidding wars.” Although cottage country housing will still appeal to city slickers following the COVID-19 pandemic, the market could eventually normalize, write Murtaza Haider, a Ryerson University professor, and Stephen Moranis a real estate industry veteran.
“Once more housing is made available by prospective sellers, who have been patiently watching the markets from the sidelines, cottage country markets are likely to return to calmer conditions to match the serene and tranquil environments that distinguish them,” they said.
Until then, cottage country is no longer just the focus of retirees searching for the quiet life in their golden years, or families seeking fun in the summer sun. Young professional couples who only need a reliable Internet connection to work are expected to become a key driver of the cottage country housing market for the foreseeable future, whether in the Sunshine Coast or Atlantic Canada.
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