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Economy

Mexico economy grows 0.9% in Q3 but momentum seen easing on tighter conditions

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Nov 25 (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy grew 0.9% in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, national statistics agency INEGI said on Friday, boosted mainly by the primary sector and despite an ongoing aggressive monetary tightening cycle.

The quarterly growth, Mexico’s third in a row, came in slightly below economists’ expectations, which stood at 1.0% in a Reuters poll – the same level showed by preliminary data published by INEGI late last month.

Repeating a trend seen in the previous quarter, Latin America’s second-largest economy posted across-the-board growth in the period, with primary, secondary and tertiary sectors expanding 2%, 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively.

The economic expansion comes even as the Bank of Mexico pursues an aggressive tightening cycle to rein in stubbornly high inflation which has taken interest rates to a record 10% this year.

Tighter monetary conditions, however, are seen slowing down Mexico’s GDP growth ahead, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has recently asked the central bank to balance fighting inflation with the need to protect economic growth.

“The economy has remained resilient so far this year, which will give sufficient ammunition to Banxico to keep tightening in the near term,” said Andres Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“But risks for the Mexican economy during 2023 remain massively tilted to the downside.”

Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings said it expected Mexico’s gross domestic product to grow 2.5% in real terms in 2022 and 1.4% next year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast an expansion of 2.1% this year and 1.2% in 2023.

In annual terms, INEGI said, the country’s economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, beating expectations of 4.1% growth from economists polled by Reuters.

Separately, data showed on Friday that Mexico’s economic activity grew 0.7% in September from August and 5.2% from September of 2021, both also ahead of market projections.

Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Steven Grattan and Christi

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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