(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s economy barely grew in the fourth quarter, bolstering the chances that the central bank will join the regional trend for interest rate cuts as soon as next month.
Official data released Thursday showed gross domestic product expanded 0.1% in the October-December period compared to the previous quarter, as manufacturing and construction activity contracted. The result was in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
From the same period a year earlier, GDP grew 2.5%. For the whole year, output expanded 3.2%.
Mexico is the only major inflation-targeting economy in Latin America that has yet to start cutting interest rates, and a benchmark interest rate at 11.25% is constraining consumer demand. The weak growth, combined with a bigger-than-expected drop in the inflation rate this month, should allow the central bank to start monetary within weeks, said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs.
“Softer growth and progress on the inflation front should allow the central bank to cut a quarter percentage point in March,” Ramos said. “More likely we are now shifting to a path of more moderate growth.”
The agricultural sector shrank 0.1% in the fourth quarter, as did the secondary sector that includes manufacturing and construction, as government spending on some major projects started to slow. The services sector grew 0.3%, compared to much more robust performance earlier in the year.
Economists in the most recent Citibanamex survey see Mexico’s GDP expanding 2.4% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
“This is evidence of strong economic deceleration toward the end of the year, and the trend doesn’t look like it’s going to change,” said Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero Base, speaking before the report was published.
In a seperate report on Thursday, the statistics agency said that annual inflation slowed to 4.45% in early February, a bigger drop than forecast by all 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Mexico is heavily dependent upon the US — its No. 1 trade partner and the source of much of the cash that immigrants send home — and presidential elections in both countries this year introduce a host of political variables to economic forecasts.
–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.
(Updates with analyst comments from fourth paragraph)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
