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Milton byelection matters for Doug Ford and Bonnie Crombie – CBC.ca

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For Premier Doug Ford, there’s more at stake in Thursday’s provincial byelection in Milton than just one seat at Queen’s Park.   

While a byelection win or loss won’t change the status of any party in the majority-PC Legislature, the results in Milton will tell Ford, his opponents and all their political organizers plenty about the challenges they’ll face in the run-up to the next provincial election campaign two years from now. 

“Normally I would say that you can’t read too much into byelections,” said Andrew Perez, a Liberal strategist, in an interview. “In this case, I think this byelection in Milton is critical.” 

Andrew Brander, a Conservative strategist, says the vote comes at a critical time for the Ford government. 

“The reason why I think [the byelection] matters is Milton is an exceptional microcosm of the GTA,” said Brander, who managed three successful federal campaigns in the riding for former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt. 

Here are five reasons why you should pay attention to what happens in Milton, even if you don’t live there.  

1. It’s the 905

The path to power in Ontario leads through the 905, made up of the regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham. For the last eight straight provincial elections, the party that won the most seats in this part of the Greater Toronto Area formed government. 

The PC dominance of the 905 was one of the most notable features of the 2022 election. Ford’s party captured 28 of its 29 ridings, with the NDP’s win in Oshawa as the only exception.

Both politically and mathematically, it will be almost impossible for any party to defeat the PCs in the next election (scheduled for June 2026) without prying away a healthy chunk of these seats.  

The results today in Milton could be seen as a sample of how 905 voters are feeling midway through Ford’s second term as premier.

Polling suggests the Liberals are competitive in Milton and Perez says voter sentiment in neighbouring ridings is likely similar. “I think that’s promising for our party,” he said.

For the Official Opposition New Democrats, who have long struggled to win anywhere in the 905 outside of Brampton and Oshawa, the results will send a message to Marit Stiles’s party about how much further it needs to go to have a realistic shot at forming government.      

Around 98,000 people are eligible to vote in the Milton byelection. (Mehrdad Nazarahari/CBC)

2. It’s a challenge for Doug Ford

The byelection was forced by Ford’s former minister of red tape reduction, Parm Gill, jumping ship to become the candidate for Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party. 

Milton has clearly been on Ford’s mind of late. He held a news conference in the riding in mid-April to announce expanded GO Transit service. He held a news conference on Tuesday to re-announce a 2025 start date for construction of Highway 413, which would link Milton to Vaughan.

Ford also opposed the Speaker’s ban on the Palestinian keffiyeh scarf in the Legislature, which some political commentators connected to the number of Muslim voters in the riding. 

“All of these things speak to the lengths that the premier is willing to go to cater to the voters of Milton,” said Brander. 

If Ford’s party fails to hold on to the seat, Brander says that could make PC MPPs from other ridings in the region worry about their political futures, and reconsider whether they want to seek re-election in 2026.  

Ontario Premier Doug Ford makes a GO Transit announcement in Niagara Falls on Aug. 26, 2022.
Premier Doug Ford came to Milton during the byelection campaign to announce expanded GO Transit service around the Greater Toronto Area. (Tara Walton/The Canadian Press)

3. It’s a test for Bonnie Crombie

Thursday’s byelection in Milton (along with the simultaneous bylection in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, a riding that the PCs have held for four straight elections) is the first ballot box test for Bonnie Crombie since she became leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in December. 

As the former mayor of Mississauga, Crombie’s presence as leader should in theory boost the Liberals’ fortunes elsewhere in the 905. 

The Liberals came close in Milton in 2022, losing by just four percentage points, despite the party’s dismal showing provincewide under leader Steven Del Duca. 

So if the party can’t win this byelection under Crombie, said Brander, “I think that’s that’s a bit of a warning sign for the Liberals.”

The PCs have ramped up their attack ads targeting Crombie since the byelection campaign began, including TV spots airing during Toronto Maple Leafs playoff games.   

Given the extent of the PC advertising salvo, Perez says even a closely-fought loss will indicate that Crombie has given momentum to the Liberals as their new leader.  

Photo of Bonnie Crombie
Thursday’s byelections are the first since Bonnie Crombie won the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party in December. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)

4. Its issues resonate

Issues that matter a lot to voters in the suburban, commuter-heavy riding of Milton — such as housing, the cost of living, transportation — tend to be issues that voters care about in many ridings around the GTA.  

“These are all issues that the premier and the PC caucus have been speaking to very clearly,” said Brander. “If they can’t hold on to a riding like Milton where those issues are supposed to resonate so well, then that has to be somewhat concerning for the premier.” 

The hyper-local issue that has generated the most debate during the byelection is a proposed quarry near Campbellville, in the northwest corner of Milton. There’s always the possibility for such a controversy to motivate just enough voters to swing the result in a close race.

Milton has been a swing riding in the last three elections, with the PCs winning it in 2018 and 2022, while the Liberals took its predecessor riding of Halton when Kathleen Wynne led the party to victory in 2014. 

Aerial (drone) images of Highway 400 with an Ontario government announcing the future site of Highway 413.
Highway 413 would cut across the northwestern part of the GTA from Highway 400, seen here, to Highway 401 in Milton. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)

5. It could reveal a trend

The PCs haven’t won any of the four Ontario byelections held since the party romped to its second majority in 2022.

Admittedly, three of those seats were previously held by other parties. But last July’s loss of Kanata-Carleton, a seat vacated by former cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton — coupled that same day with the failure of former Toronto city councillor Gary Crawford to take Scarborough-Guildwood from the Liberals — stung Ford’s party.   

The loss of another former cabinet minister’s seat in Milton could start to look like a disappointing trend for the Tories.

Both Brander and Perez predict Thursday’s race will be close, and say each party’s ability to get voters to the polls could make a difference, given the low turnout that byelections typically muster. 

The candidates in Milton for the four parties with seats in the legislature are:

  • Zee Hamid (PC)  
  • Kyle Hutton (Green)
  • Galen Naidoo Harris (Liberal) 
  • Edie Strachan (NDP)

Polling stations are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. 

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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