Entering the 2022 offseason, the Maple Leafs’ most pressing question was unquestionably goaltending. Leafs management acted accordingly.
They cleared out Petr Mrazek’s contract, they met with Jack Campbell but did not reach an agreement, and finally, they pushed in their chips (by chips, we really mean cap space) by acquiring Matt Murray.
On the whole, the work done so far has netted out to:
Out: Mrazek (3.8 x 2), 25th overall In: Murray (4.7 x 2), 38th overall, 2023 third, 2024 seventh
There will be plenty of time to discuss Matt Murray the goalie and watch how it plays out. Frankly, goalies are magic beans, and you could convince me one way or the other on Murray’s prospects for rebounding in a Leafs sweater. He’s still young enough (28), has had success in the league as a starter and a playoff performer, and there’s some evidence – if you squint – that he was still capable when healthy.
On the other side of the coin, Murray has struggled to stay healthy, and it’s fair to question his ability to handle a starter’s workload. Over the past three seasons, he is tied for 56th in save percentage out of the 64 goalies that have played at least 50 games. If there’s a position where past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, it’s goaltending. That said, Murray basically played himself out of the league at one point.
How the gamble plays out is only going to be known in time, and for the purposes of analyzing the move today, it’s secondary. Almost every goalie possibility involved a gamble. Jack Campbell has never played a 50-game season in the NHL. Neither has Ville Husso or Alexander Georgiev. Darcy Kuemper has done it twice. John Gibson has been trending down for three seasons. Marc-Andre Fleury never made it to the open market. Netminders like Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov are mystery boxes.
Now, based on age, career track records, cap hits, and recent play, do I think there were safer bets to be made? Yes. Maybe Murray will pan out and it’s all irrelevant in a year from now. If he does, Kyle Dubas will look like one of the smartest players at the poker table. If he doesn’t, it won’t just be Murray the player that is problematic.
The value is the real problem. The Leafs gave up nothing to acquire Murray and for good reason: Essentially nobody in the league wanted him with his current contract, and the one other team that did (Buffalo) was on his no-trade list.
Ottawa is a small market team that has two goalies ahead of him on the depth chart, and Murray is slated to make $15 million in actual cash over the next two seasons. Not even a week ago, Ottawa was prepared to package him and the seventh-overall pick to drop back to pick 16.
You could argue the Leafs were desperate for a goalie, but really, this was a game of a chicken, and the Leafs blinked first. This is not the first time this management group has managed to squander a position of leverage.
The Leafs took on this gamble for the price of a 25% salary retention, a third, and a seventh. Even if it pans out, the value gleaned here was poor. They didn’t give themselves a big enough salary-cap cushion as insurance, and they didn’t sweeten the pot with assets of significant enough value (i.e. netting a player or higher draft picks).
In fact, I can confidently say this is the least calculated move of this regime’s tenure. Kyle Dubas hasn’t protected himself at all here. It’s a boom-or-bust swing for the fences.
The Maple Leafs’ cap situation ahead of free agency
Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese
The Leafs will now head into free agency with the following roster (and holes), which they have around $8 million in cap space to fill out:
Rielly – Brodie Muzzin – Holl Giordano – Liljegren
Murray
The $8 million has to be used to:
Sign Pierre Engvall
Sign Rasmus Sandin
Sign at least three additional forwards (or promote from within; I did not include the Kyle Cliffords, Wayne Simmonds, Alex Steeves of the world)
Sign a backup goalie (or promote from within)
That’s an average of $1.3 million per player, and that’s definitely a number Engvall specifically will be exceeding. Last year, a 26-year-old Teddy Blueger – the same age Engvall is now – was coming off a seven-goal, 22-point season in just 43 games and signed for $2.2 million per year for two years. Engvall – coming off a 15-goal, 35-point season in 78 games – compares fairly closely. In his first three years in the NHL, Blueger posted a career .39 points per game while Engvall sits at .37 at the same juncture in his career.
After signing Engvall, the Leafs could be looking at just under $6 million in cap space to fill out, at a minimum, three forward spots, a backup goalie, and bring back Sandin.
That is just to fill out the roster. How are they going to improve the team?
The internal options and the free-agency bargain bin
Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
I certainly wouldn’t pay Ilya Mikheyev the near $5 million he reportedly wants, but he was very good last season. It’s possible to bank on Nick Robertson emerging as the season goes on, but those are very different players. Mikheyev was fourth among Leafs forwards in shorthanded time-on-ice per game last season and was a key member of the team’s checking line. Robertson projects as a scoring forward.
It would be disappointing if the offseason essentially boils down to signing a bunch of depth forwards, taking a huge gamble in net, and doing nothing of significance to demonstrably improve the roster.
So what’s left at this point?
Elliotte Friedman just reported that the Leafs have interest in Zach Aston-Reese and/or in potentially bringing Denis Malgin back from Switzerland. That’s not going to move the needle much, but in the case of Aston-Reese – or a Tyler Motte type as well – I do think there is value in adding a legitimate, proven NHL forward to anchor their fourth line while providing some checking value and physicality. Adding a steady player makes it much more palatable for the Leafs to pair up a Marlie – such as an Alex Steeves – to protect him and provide some veteran insurance.
The question for the fourth line – presuming they do sign an Aston-Reese type (which I am guessing is likely and is something I would endorse) – is whether Wayne Simmonds and/or Kyle Clifford are also in the mix. My guess is that they don’t have the nerve to send Simmonds down. I assume he’ll be in the lineup to start the season, even though he played his way out of the playoff lineup and is only getting worse at this point in time.
Short of clearing cap space to change the roster around (I’ll reiterate that Alex Kerfoot – coming off a career-high season, not a play driver, a year away from UFA – is an easy player to sell high on right now), the main thing the Leafs can really do in search of upside is to explore the unqualified market. That is where the team added David Kampf last summer with good results.
There are a few candidates of interest. Kampf’s former teammate, Dylan Strome, is receiving a bunch of attention on the free-agent market, but it’s another of his former teammates, Dominik Kubalik, that is of particular interest to me. He has 116 points in 202 NHL games, including a 30-goal season in his rookie year. He’s 6’2, has a great shot, and can play with skilled players.
Over three seasons in Chicago, Kampf and Kubalik actually played over 430 minutes together at 5v5. They were essentially even in corsi, slightly above water at fenwick, outscored opponents by three, and controlled a near 55% expected goals despite a 32% offensive-zone faceoff percentage. And that’s on a horrible Chicago team.
Kubalik is a much different player than Mikheyev, but he’s arguably a better goal scorer and he’s the same size. Kubalik is essentially a good finisher but doesn’t drive play much. I can picture a seamless fit alongside Kampf and Engvall on a cheap contract. He is also a credible second power-play unit half-wall option to replace Jason Spezza with his bomb of a shot.
That type of addition – to go along with an Aston-Reese type (a physical grinder and penalty killer) and bringing back Engvall – gives them four credible NHLers (including Kampf, of course) in the bottom six and two spots for Marlies/Wayne Simmonds/Kyle Clifford to compete for. Is it sexy? No, but there is potential for upside with a good floor to protect the outlook of the team.
There are other unqualified players worthy of consideration.
The Leafs could contemplate returning Ondrej Kase at a reduced rate, although I’d personally rather see them acquire players they can trust to stay healthy.
Jonathan Dahlen flashed promise on a really bad San Jose team last season in his rookie year and went unqualified by a brand-new GM. There is potential here.
Nicolas Aube-Kubel was a regular on the Stanley Cup champions during the regular season and appeared in 14 playoff games. He fits the Aston-Reese/Motte ilk.
Brett Howden is just 24 years old, can play center, and tallied 20 points in 47 games (he is also 6’2). He could be an inexpensive 4C with some reasonable upside to help anchor the Leafs’ fourth line.
And then there is the question of a second goaltender. Ideally, Erik Kallgren is the team’s third goalie (if the past few seasons have taught us anything, it’s that the Leafs’ third-stringer is going to play some games).
Ilya Samsonov was not qualified by Washington, and while he has struggled recently, he’s just 25 with nearly 100 games to his name. Eric Comrie doesn’t have the experience of Samsonov, but he just turned 27 and was good last season with a .920 save percentage in 19 games on a fairly-mediocre Winnipeg team. That type of younger gamble with some upside is the type of hedge that is affordable, intriguing, and raises the floor for the goaltending department.
On defense, the goal should be to retain Sandin and let the roster battle play out from there. The Leafs already have seven NHL defensemen. We floated the idea of moving out money on the defense in a previous offseason writeup; while that remains viable, with the draft over with and many trade candidates already moved, what would be the play?
Sell off the cap space now and become worse on defense? Perform some gymnastics where the team trades away a Jake Muzzin, clears cap, then prays to land a UFA of note? At this point, it seems wiser to simply run back the defense group. It’s a really good overall unit.
If you’re asking me, I still think there’s value in signing a UFA forward of note — an Andrew Copp or Nino Niederreiter, who I think better fit alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. But they would have to clear cap space to make that kind of move, and time is running out on free agency.
Goaltending needed to be the priority, and the Leafs have made their move there. Unless they follow it up by clearing cap space, the remainder of the offseason will mainly be focused on filling out the roster and bargain-bin hunting.
VANCOUVER – As the Major League Soccer season ticks down, Vanni Sartini wants his Vancouver Whitecaps to make a declaration — the team is ready to compete.
“The time of hiding ourselves, I think it’s over,” the coach said after the ‘Caps earned a 2-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
“We need to really say that we are here to try to be at the ball until the end and trying to shoot for the highest position. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make it, but we have the quality to do it.”
With seven games left on their regular-season schedule, the ‘Caps (13-8-6) sit in fifth spot in the congested Western Conference, just two points out of fourth.
Saturday’s loss officially eliminated the last-place Earthquakes (5-21-2) from post-season action.
Vancouver has been on a hot streak since returning from the Leagues Cup break and is unbeaten (3-0-1) in its last four outings across all competitions. The team has not allowed a goal in those matches.
“It’s the fact that we play really well,” Sartini said of the clean sheets. “We have the ball a lot, we finish our attack most of the time in their box. So it’s really hard for the other team to attack us. And then when they attack us, in the rare times that they arrive in the final third, we’re very solid.”
Recent additions have bolstered the team’s ranks, including the club’s newest designated player, Stuart Armstrong. The 32-year-old Scottish midfielder scored his first MLS goal Saturday.
Three minutes after coming on as a substitute for Alessandro Schopf, Armstrong gave Vancouver a two-goal cushion in the 87th minute.
Midfielder Pedro Vite dished a short pass to ‘Caps captain Ryan Gauld, who tapped it toward Armstrong. The former Southampton FC player then blasted a shot into the top of the net for his first strike in a Whitecaps’ jersey.
He was mobbed by teammates in the corner of the field.
“I think everyone was happy. Also for the first goal, but also that it was an important three points,” said Armstrong, who signed with the ‘Caps on Sept. 3.
“It kind of felt a little bit like last week, when we had a lot of chances and we didn’t get the three points. So today, I think everyone was just relieved to have that two-goal cushion.”
Vancouver was the dominant team from the outset Saturday and did not relent, outshooting the visitors 19-5 and controlling 54.1 per cent of possession.
Fafa Picault also found the back of the net for Vancouver, while Gauld contributed a pair of assists.
Whitecaps goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka stopped both shots he faced to collect his seventh clean sheet of the year, while Daniel made nine saves for the Quakes.
Gauld and Picault teamed up in the 22nd minute when Gauld curled a cross in and the Haitian striker headed it down toward the net, only to see Daniel catch a piece of the shot with his forearm and redirect it out of harm’s way.
The duo connected again in the 35th minute on a Vancouver corner. Gauld swung a ball in and Picault jumped up from the pack to send a glancing header in past Daniel for his ninth MLS goal of the season.
San Jose briefly appeared to level the score in the 68th minute when an unmarked Ousseni Bouda collected the ball, froze Takaoka and tapped a shot into the Vancouver net. An official quickly raised the offside flag and waved off the tally.
Daniel kept San Jose’s deficit to a single goal with a pair of solid stops in the 82nd minute.
First, the Brazilian ‘keeper dove sideways on his line to tip away a bomb from Alessandro Schopf. He was tested again on the ensuing corner and jumped up to send a header from Picault over the crossbar.
“I think we created a lot of chances again,” Gauld said.
“We probably should have put the game out of their reach sooner. But we’d be more worried if we weren’t creating the chances. Three clean sheets in a row in the league, I think it’s a big thing for us. And it gives us a good platform to go forward.”
NOTES
Vancouver played without leading scorer Brian White for a third consecutive game as the American striker works his way back from a concussion. … Gauld’s second assist marked his 15th goal contribution (six goals, nine assists) in his last 15 Whitecaps games across all competitions. … An announced crowd of 21,309 took in the game at B.C. Place.
UP NEXT
The Whitecaps kick off a two-game road swing Wednesday against the Houston Dynamo. The Earthquakes host the Seattle Sounders the same night.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
MANCHESTER, England (AP) — Not good enough. That was Arne Slot’s verdict after his first defeat as Liverpool manager on Saturday.
A shock 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League ended Slot’s perfect record since succeeding Jurgen Klopp at Anfield at the end of last season.
“We had a lot of ball possession but only managed to create three (or) four quite good chances, so that is by far not enough if you have so much ball possession,” said the Dutchman, who suggested his team should not be losing to the likes of Forest.
“If you lose a home game it’s always a setback, especially if you face a team … we never know, maybe they will go all the way to fight for Champions League tickets, but normally this team is not ending up in the top 10, so if you lose a game against them that’s a big disappointment.”
Slot won his first three games in charge, including a memorable 3-0 victory against Manchester United before the international break.
But that run came to an end after Callum Hudson-Odoi struck in the 72nd with a curling effort from the edge of the box and beyond goalkeeper Alisson.
Liverpool’s defeat leaves Manchester City as the only team with a 100% record in the league after a 2-1 win against Brentford kept the defending champion at the top of the table.
United won at Southampton 3-0 to end its two-game losing streak.
Unstoppable Haaland
Erling Haaland moved to 99 goals for City after scoring twice against Brentford.
The Norwegian’s double came after Yoane Wissa fired Brentford ahead with just 22 seconds on the clock.
Haaland scored his 98th and 99th goals in his 103rd City appearance in all competitions. And he was the width of the post away from his third consecutive hat trick after trebles against Ipswich and West Ham.
“He’s been really, really good. Yeah, I would say he’s the best (he’s been), but it’s only four fixtures (this season),” City manager Pep Guardiola said.
Haaland, who has been nominated for the Ballon d’Or, has nine goals in four league games. He has topped the league scoring charts in each of his two seasons at City since joining from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 for $63 million.
Haaland’s first goal after 19 minutes evened the game following Wissa’s opener, which stunned the Etihad Stadium crowd. Haaland turned and swept a shot past goalkeeper Mark Flekken after a slight deflection off Ethan Pinnock.
He was then too strong for Pinnock when shaking off the defender and running through for his second in the 32nd.
He was inches away in the 81st; the shot came back off the post after beating the keeper.
Rashford snaps run
Marcus Rashford snapped a 12-game barren run in front of goal as United beat Southampton.
Rashford doubled United’s lead at Saint Mary’s after Matthijs de Ligt’s scored his first for the club. Substitute Alejandro Garnacho scored a third in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
The win came after back-to-back defeats for United.
Rashford hadn’t scored since March in United’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals. He curled in a shot from the edge of the area to put Erik ten Hag’s team 2-0 up at Southampton in the 41st minute.
Ten Hag said it could be a turning point for the forward.
“For every striker, they want to be on the scoring list. Once the first is in, more is coming. Like a ketchup bottle, once it’s going, it’s coming more,” he said.
De Ligt, who joined United from Bayern Munich in the offseason, headed in from Bruno Fernandes’ cross in the 35th.
It could have been a different story if Cameron Archer converted a penalty for Southampton in the 33rd. Instead, his effort was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Newly promoted Southampton was reduced to 10 men when Jack Stephens was sent off in the 79th for a high challenge on Garnacho.
Villa comeback
After three straight defeats to start the league, Everton looked set for its first win when leading Aston Villa 2-0.
Goals from Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Sean Dyche’s team in control until Ollie Watkins struck twice to even the game.
Jhon Duran completed Villa’s comeback and sealed a 3-2 win in the 76th to leave Everton rooted to the bottom of the table and the only top flight team without a point.
Late drama
Jean-Philippe Mateta converted a stoppage time penalty to salvage a 2-2 draw for Crystal Palace against Leicester.
Leicester led 2-0 at Selhurst Park after goals from Jamie Vardy and Stephy Mavididi.
But Mateta sparked Palace’s response with a goal in the 47th, a minute after Mavididi doubled Leicester’s advantage.
Conor Coady fouled Ismaili Sarr in the box right near fulltime and Mateta was cool enough to convert.
West Ham left it even later to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
Danny Ings struck in the fifth minute of added time after Raul Jimenez’s goal looked like earning Fulham the win.
Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler, the manager of the month for August, was frustrated as his team was held to 0-0 at home by Ipswich.
CLEVELAND (AP) — Restricted free agent forward Isaac Okoro has agreed to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press on Saturday.
Okoro’s new deal is worth $38 million, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been signed or announced by the team.
ESPN.com first reported the agreement, citing Okoro’s representation.
The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft, Okoro is Cleveland’s best perimeter defender, often drawing the assignment of guarding the opponent’s top scorer. Okoro also has worked to improve his offensive game.
The 23-year-old averaged 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds in 69 games — 42 starts — last season for the Cavs, who beat Orlando in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to eventual champion Boston.
Okoro shot a career-best 39% on 3-pointers, forcing teams to come out and guard him.
His agreement caps an extraordinarily busy summer for the Cavs that began with coach J.B. Bickerstaff being fired and replaced by Kenny Atkinson. All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell signed a three-year, $150 million extension in July, ending months of speculation that he wanted out of Cleveland.
Also, power forward Evan Mobley signed a five-year, $224 deal and center Jarrett Allen signed a three-year, $91 million extension.
