Most of us thought the pandemic would have a deep but temporary effect on the economy, that our medical ingenuity would allow us to control and eventually defeat the virus and then get back to normal.
That didn’t happen. We now face the likelihood that the pandemic will linger at a low level for years, affecting how we work, shop and interact with each other, producing sub-par economic growth, and altering the structure of the real estate market.
Some of the changes can be seen in the latest data, which show that parts of the economy are recovering quite nicely while others remain stuck. Overall, the number of jobs in October was down just 1.2 percent from the pre-pandemic level, continuing the rapid improvement of the last six months. In particular, the job level was 2 percent higher than pre-pandemic in the important business services sector, a major driver of the economy. Jobs were also up 5 percent in construction, 1 percent in finance and even 1 percent in the typically moribund retail sector.
But on the negative side, jobs were still down 1.5 percent in manufacturing, 4 percent at restaurants, 2.5 percent in healthcare, and 3.7 percent in government. The lack of growth in healthcare and government is particularly troubling because together they provide a quarter of all jobs and there has basically been no improvement in either sector in the past year; we have to assume that employment in these large parts of the economy has been permanently altered.
We don’t yet know exactly how these changes will affect real estate market, which right now are digesting the recent surge in home prices, but my bet is that the lost jobs in healthcare and government will broaden the renter population for years, especially at the lower end. No statistics yet show this to be a trend, although the renter vacancy rate and the homeownership rate are lower than last year, but the time to formulate an investment strategy is before trends are evident.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.
