Hot on the heels of the Conservatives’ stunning byelection victory in the riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, new seat projection data from Nanos Research show ridings considered previously safe for the Liberals are increasingly up for grabs.
On the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line, Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos said the latest numbers point to “difficult times if you’re a Liberal.”
“What we’re seeing is the Liberal fortress Toronto basically under siege,” Nanos said. “So maybe Toronto—St. Paul’s is the canary in the coal mine.”
On Monday, Conservative Don Stewart defied the odds to win the closely watched Toronto-area byelection, setting off political shockwaves by claiming victory in a longtime Liberal stronghold riding.
The byelection result, Nanos said, could in retrospect be considered “a referendum on the government and on Justin Trudeau.”
The loss for the Liberals also reinvigorated rumours party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could step down before the next general election, currently slated for October 2025.
“We can’t project a byelection onto the general election,” Nanos warned, but added it’s noteworthy how much better the Conservatives did in Toronto—St. Paul’s compared to the last general election, and likewise how poorly the Liberals did compared to three years ago, which “speaks to where the momentum is.”
“But I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,” he also said. “They basically, by winning, created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to step down or to be pushed out. And that kind of resets everything.”
Nanos said a Trudeau resignation would change the “political calculus” for all parties, but especially the Conservatives, who have largely framed their message around Poilievre against Trudeau.
Regional projections
In addition to the surprise win in Toronto—St. Paul’s, Nanos said, the new data shows the Conservatives “being much more competitive in Toronto.”
Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
In comparing Nanos’s latest seat projections to the results of the 2021 general election, Ontario’s projections overall are “pretty blue,” despite “spots of red.”
The Conservatives are also challenging “very strongly in a number of Ottawa ridings outside the immediate downtown, which could prove to be races to watch whenever Canadians head to the polls.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Nanos said the Liberals could also be in store for a setback in Atlantic Canada, with both Cape Breton and Halifax in play.
Regardless, the Conservatives are likely to pick up “a number of” seats out east.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex kinds of environments,” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos.
The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections.
“They’re really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
“But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,” he also said.
“Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that’s happening right now.”
Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are “really, really helping the Conservatives.”
More broadly, voter intention across the country continues to show the Conservatives well ahead of the other parties, a trend Nanos said has been consistent for nearly a year.
Ballot tracking
Nanos Research’s latest tracking shows the Conservatives at 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 27 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent and the Greens at four per cent.
(Nanos Research)
“It’ll be interesting to see whether, through the summer, (the Conservatives) maintain that double-digit advantage,” Nanos said.
The pollster said while the Conservatives have stayed safely above 40 per cent for months, any change in the margin of their lead has been due to fluctuations with the Liberals and NDP.
“Think of Justin Trudeau as preferred prime minister. He’s 12 points back,” Nanos also said. “There’s no political coattails right now for the Liberals, either for their brand or for their party leader right now.”
NDP hits back with new ad
As more supposed Liberal strongholds potentially come up for grabs, the party’s confidence-and-supply-agreement partner, the NDP, has taken out its largest pre-election ad buy since 2015.
A new 30-second ad featuring Singh sets up what the party is calling the “change the rules tour,” and it takes aim at both the Conservatives and the Liberals.
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According to NDP national director Anne McGrath, the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection made it clear the next general election will “definitely” be a change election, and consequently the party will “absolutely” be devoting more resources to historically red ridings.
“Seats that might not have been up for grabs before are up for grabs,” McGrath said in an interview with CTV News.
“I think that it’s very obvious that what everybody thought was a stronghold, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, was not a safe seat,” she also said. “So that means that there are no safe seats.”
The Liberals’ loss has left many political watchers wondering whether the NDP will soon pull out of its confidence-and-supply pact, and Nanos said the time is coming for the party to make a decision on that front.
When asked, McGrath wouldn’t say whether the NDP is currently considering scrapping the deal, but did say the party is debt-free for the first time in nearly a decade, and building up a war chest to throw as many resources as possible at the next general election, whenever that may be.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Methodology
The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
NEW YORK (AP) — Aaron Judge hit his major league-leading 58th home run, going deep for the fifth straight game to help the New York Yankees wrap up their second AL East title in three years with a 10-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night.
Giancarlo Stanton had four RBIs that included his 27th homer, Alex Verdugo also homered and Gerrit Cole outpitched Corbin Burnes in a possible postseason preview. Judge and Stanton homered in the same game for the 14th time this year, tying Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris in 1961 for the most in Yankees history.
New York assured itself a first-round bye and home-field advantage in a best-of-five AL Division Series starting Oct. 5.
Baltimore, which clinched a postseason berth by winning Tuesday night’s opener of the three-game series, will be in a best-of-three Wild Card Series starting Tuesday.
Stanton homered in the second to put the Yankees ahead and hit a three-run double in a six-run sixth.
Judge hit a two-run homer in the seventh against Bryan Baker and has 144 RBIs, the most in the major leagues since Ryan Howard’s 146 in 2008. Judge matched his career best by homering in five consecutive games.
Making his last start before the playoffs, Cole (8-5) allowed two hits in 6 2/3 innings, struck out five and walked one, lowering his ERA to 3.41. He struck out Anthony Santander with a 98.1 mph fastball that ended the eighth after plate umpire David Rackley called a ball on the previous pitch, a knuckle-curve that appeared to be just above the strike zone. Cole glared as the umpire as the pitcher walked back to the dugout.
Cole was given a standing ovation when he walked to the dugout with two outs in the seventh and tipped his cap to the crowd of 42,022.
Burnes (15-9) allowed two hits in five innings, one walk and nine strikeouts — including eight on cutters. Burnes came out after 69 pitches and is likely to start the Orioles’ postseason opener on Tuesday. He had a 1.20 ERA in five September starts.
Stanton lofted a slider at the bottom of the strike zone into the left-field seats after missing badly at a slider on the prior pitch.
Austin Wells, in a 4-for-42 slide, forced in a run when he walked with the bases loaded against Cionel Pérez. Stanton drove the next pitch on one hop to the wall in right-center for a 5-1 lead. Stanton has 72 RBIs after hitting 6 for 18 with two doubles, two homers and eight RBIs in his last five games.
Anthony Rizzo added a two-run single against Baker.
Emmanuel Rivera hit a ninth-inning sacrifice fly for the Orioles.
UP NEXT
Orioles: LHP Cade Povich (2-9, 5.59) starts a series opener at Minnesota on Friday, when LHP Pablo López (15-9, 4.11) will be on the mound for the Twins.
Yankees: LHP Carlos Rodón (16-9, 3.98), 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA since the All-Star break. starts Friday’s series opener against Pirates RHP Jared Jones (6-8, 4.14).
OTTAWA – Noah Ostlund scored the overtime winner for the Buffalo Sabres in a 3-2 pre-season win over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.
Buffalo’s lineup had a combined total of just over 100 NHL games of experience as most of its regular roster is in Munich, Germany for the upcoming Global Series Challenge.
Felix Sandstrom made 14 saves for the Sabres (4-0-0). Josh Dunne and Isak Rosen had the Buffalo goals.
Adam Gaudette and Noah Gregor scored for Ottawa. Linus Ullmark made his first start in a Senators (3-1-0) uniform and didn’t disappoint, stopping 28 of 29 shots through 30 minutes of play.
Dustin Tokarski made 10 saves over a period and a half.
Ottawa opened the scoring at 7:55 after Carter Yakemchuk made a great defensive play to create a turnover. Gregor was then sent down the wing and he beat Sandstrom on the glove side.
Buffalo tied the game at the 10-minute mark. Vsevolod Komarov made a cross-crease pass to Dunne who stepped into the faceoff circle and beat Ullmark.
Buffalo had a 24-5 edge in shots after the first period.
Gaudette gave Ottawa the lead midway through the third with a power-play goal that was set up by Yakemchuk. Rosen tied it with 40.7 seconds remaining.
The Senators were expected to make a number of cuts after the game to reduce the size of their roster.
NOTES: The Sabres were given a special exemption from the league before the game. Teams usually have to dress a minimum of eight NHL veterans, but Buffalo didn’t have any in its lineup.
UP NEXT: The Senators will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday in Sudbury, while the Sabres will head to Columbus on Saturday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
TORONTO – The Toronto Maple Leafs got a scare in a 2-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night when star forward William Nylander left the game midway through the first period after taking a knock to the head.
He was held out for the rest of the game for what the team called “precautionary reasons.” Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube said Nylander avoided serious injury and would be OK.
“Willy will be fine,” said Berube. “Nothing to worry about.”
Nylander was the latest Maple Leafs star to suffer an injury scare, as Auston Matthews departed practice this week with what Berube deemed an upper-body ailment. Matthews did not play on Thursday.
John Tavares and Nick Robertson scored for Toronto in the Maple Leafs’ first win of the pre-season. Christian Dvorak tallied for Montreal.
The Maple Leafs outshot the Canadiens 33-17.
Nylander was tripped up in the neutral zone and hit in the head by a passing Montreal player as he fell. The 27-year-old went straight to the dressing room after the play.
Tavares opened the scoring midway at 10:12 of the first period by tipping home a deft touch-pass from Mitch Marner. It was the fourth point for Tavares in two games.
“There were better sides to our game,” Tavares said. “The way we played, all three zones, we were a little more connected. The pace of our game was better. Moving the puck better.
“I liked the way that we were getting in on the forecheck.”
Dvorak pulled Montreal even at 5:39 of the second period after taking advantage of a slick feed from Alexandre Barre-Boulet at the Toronto blue line.
Dvorak held off Maple Leafs defender Morgan Rielly and tucked the puck between goalie Anthony Stolarz’s legs.
Robertson had two breakaways later in the period but both were turned aside by Montreal netminder Jakub Dobes.
Robertson eventually capitalized with the winner at 18:04. He stripped the puck from Canadiens defender Adam Engstrom, drawing a penalty in the process, and beat Dobes between the legs.
“Heck of a play,” said Maple Leafs forward Steven Lorenz. “That’s just hard work, not giving up on a play. And it shows a maturity for a young guy like him. Coming on the backcheck and stripping the guy, going in and on the first three strides getting some separation and getting a great shot on the guy’s five hole.
“I get tired just watching him. He’s a good little player.”
Matt Murray took over for Stolarz in the third period for his first game action since suffering a hip injury on April 4, 2023. He stopped all seven shots he faced.
“He’s had a good summer, healthy summer,” Berube said of Murray. “He was able to train and do the things he needs to do. You know, this guy has won a couple (Stanley) Cups. He knows how to win. He’s a good goalie.
“So, I think it’s just kind of progressed from the summertime through to camp here now. He looked solid. He’s a big guy, takes up a lot of net.”
Stolarz had nine saves and Dobes made 32 stops.
COMING UP
The Maple Leafs and Canadiens will face each other again on Saturday in Montreal.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
(Nanos Research)
