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The New shipping rules expected to impact Canadian oilsands industry

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A new wave of cold water is about to hit Canada’s much-buffeted oilsands industry but whether it will be a perfect storm or a tempest in a teapot is yet to be seen.

Tighter pollution rules by the International Maritime Organization are set to take effect Jan. 1. The new guidelines, dubbed IMO 2020, will limit the sulphur content of “bunker” fuel on ships to just 0.5 per cent, down from the current 3.5 per cent.

The deadline has been in place for years, but the change is still expected to wallop prices for heavy oil containing high levels of sulphur, such as raw bitumen from the Alberta oilsands. Bitumen makes up about half of Canada’s 4.6 million barrels per day of crude oil production.

The discount on Western Canadian Select bitumen blend crude prices versus North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate could almost double in January, said Alan Gelder, vice-president, refining, for consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

“In October, we’ve got the WTI-WCS differential at about US$16 per barrel. And we’ve got that widening out to the high-$20s in January,” he said in a recent interview from London.

He added the differential should moderate to about US$23 or $24 by the middle of 2020.

The price difference between WTI and WCS is a closely watched figure because it dictates oilsands profitability and royalties paid to the provincial government.

When the differential widened to as much as US$52 a barrel at the end of 2018, a development blamed on pipeline capacity failing to keep up with oilsands growth, the Alberta government introduced production curtailments in a successful bid to narrow the spread. The production limits have since been reduced but not cancelled.

Analyst Phil Skolnick of Eight Capital says there was little evidence of a major jump in WCS differentials pricing for January crude oil trades that started in early December.

The impact of the new pollution rules is being softened by disruptions in the flow of competing heavy oil from Venezuela and Mexico into the U.S., as well as new petrochemical projects in Asia that need heavy oil as feedstock, he said.

“Canada is benefiting because of Venezuela, Mexico. With that, combined with the pull from these new petrochemical plants that are consuming medium and heavy oil, it’s helping to offset the risks of IMO 2020,” said Skolnick.

Companies that own refineries or oilsands upgraders are expected to benefit as the new standards will increase demand for refined low-sulphur fuels.

At its recent investor day, chief financial officer Dan Lyons of Calgary-based Imperial Oil Ltd. said it will offer four options for marine fuel customers at its Vancouver terminal — 3.5 per cent sulphur, 0.5 per cent, 0.1 per cent and blends made to order.

An expansion at its Lloydminster Upgrader on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border will help Calgary-based Husky Energy Inc. benefit from IMO 2020 as its diesel output will jump to 10,000 bpd from 6,000 bpd, said spokeswoman Kim Guttormson.

The company also produces diesel at its Lima Refinery in Ohio, which has been reconfigured to use more heavy oil.


Saint John-based Irving Oil Ltd. produces VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil) and marine gas oil at its Whitegate refinery in Ireland and is offering IMO-compliant fuels in New Brunswick through its expanded bunker operations, said spokeswoman Candice MacLean in an email. It also offers marine fuel oil in St. John’s, N.L., and Halifax, she added.

Most of the five million barrels per day of bunker fuel currently burned on ships is derived from the crude residue that remains after more valuable fuels such as gasoline and diesel have been removed in a refinery.

Following combustion, the sulphur in the fuel becomes sulphur oxide, a pollutant that causes respiratory problems and lung disease as well as acid rain. IMO 2020 is expected to prevent 8.5 million tonnes per year of sulphur oxide from entering the atmosphere.

The IMO first began restricting emissions in 2005 and its limits on sulphur in bunker fuel have been progressively tightened. Four “emission control areas” in Europe and North America already have a 0.1 per cent limit.

About 3.5 million bpd of bunker fuels consumed in 2019 are considered high-sulphur fuel oil. That is expected to fall to about 1.3 million bpd in January, according to Wood Mackenzie, as most ships will switch to alternatives including VLSFO and marine gas oil.

About 15 per cent of ships will have added “scrubbers” by then to capture sulphur from their smokestacks and allow them to continue to burn high-sulphur crude.

Full compliance is not expected on Jan. 1. Some ships will be allowed to continue to burn high-sulphur fuel by citing safety concerns about switching to new fuel blends or because their scrubbers haven’t arrived yet.

Refiners are expected to be able to deliver about 1.4 million bpd of VLSFO in 2020, while demand for marine gas oil, a refined product similar to diesel, is expected to jump to about one million bpd in 2020 and gradually grow to about 2.4 million bpd.

 

The new fuel standard could eventually boost demand for liquefied natural gas, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting 22 million tonnes per year of LNG demand from shipping by 2030.

The high cost of switching to LNG means it will likely only be installed on new ships, said Gelder.

Not everyone is satisfied with the higher standards under IMO 2020.

Environmental groups including Stand.earth have called on the cruise and shipping industries to ban the use of scrubbers as they allow the continued burning of high-sulphur fuels.

They also call LNG a “false solution” that won’t help the industry reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

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From transmission to symptoms, what to know about avian flu after B.C. case

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A B.C. teen has a suspected case of H5N1 avian flu — the first known human to acquire the virusin Canada.

The provincial government said on the weekend that B.C.’s chief veterinarian and public health teamsare still investigating the source of exposure, but that it’s “very likely” an animal or bird.

Human-to-human transmission is very rare, but as cases among animals rise, many experts are worried the virus could develop that ability.

The teen was being treated at BC Children’s Hospital on Saturday. The provincial health officer said there were no updates on the patient Monday.

“I’m very concerned, obviously, for the young person who was infected,” said Dr. Matthew Miller, director of the Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont.

Miller, who is also the co-director of the Canadian Pandemic Preparedness Hub, said there have been several people infected with H5N1 in the U.S.,and almost all were livestock workers.

In an email to The Canadian Press on Monday afternoon, the Public Health Agency of Canada said “based on current evidence in Canada, the risk to the general public remains low at this time.”

WHAT IS H5N1?

H5N1 is a subtype of influenza A virus that has mainly affected birds, so it’s also called “bird flu” or “avian flu.” The H5N1 flu that has been circulating widely among birds and cattle this year is one of the avian flu strains known as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) because it causes severe illness in birds, including poultry.

According to the World Health Organization, H5N1 has been circulating widely among wild birds and poultry for more than two decades. The WHO became increasingly concerned and called for more disease surveillance in Feb. 2023 after worldwide reports of the virus spilling over into mammals.

HOW COMMON IS INFECTION IN HUMANS?

H5N1 infections in humans are rare and “primarily acquired through direct contact with infected poultry or contaminated environments,” the WHO’s website says.

Prior to the teen in B.C., Canada had one human case of H5N1 in 2014 and it was “travel-related,” according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.

As of Nov. 8, there have been 46 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the U.S. this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. There is an ongoing outbreak among dairy cattle, “sporadic” outbreaks in poultry farms and “widespread” cases in wild birds, the CDC website says.

There has been no sign of human-to-human transmission in any of the U.S. cases.

But infectious disease and public health experts are worried that the more H5N1 spreads between different types of animals, the bigger the chance it can mutateand spread more easily between humans.

WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF H5N1?

Although H5N1 causes symptoms similar to seasonal flu, such as cough, fever, shortness of breath, headache, muscle pain, sore throat, runny nose and fatigue, the strain also has key features that can cause other symptoms.

Unlike seasonal flu, most of the people infected in the U.S. have had conjunctivitis, or “pink-eye,” said Miller.

One reason for that is likely that many have been dairy cattle workers.

“At these milking operations, it’s easy to get contamination on your hands and rub your eyes. We touch our face like all the time without even knowing it,” he said.

“Also, those operations can produce droplets or aerosols, both during milking and during cleaning that can get into the eye relatively easily.”

But the other reason for the conjunctivitis seen in H5N1 cases is that the strain binds to receptors in the eye, Miller said.

While seasonal flu binds to receptors in the upper respiratory tract, H5N1 also binds to receptors in the lower respiratory tract, he said.

“That’s a concern … because if the virus makes its way down there, those lower respiratory infections tend to be a lot more severe. They tend to lead to more severe outcomes, like pneumonias for example, that can cause respiratory distress,” Miller said.

WILL THE FLU VACCINE PROTECT AGAINST H5N1?

We don’t know “with any degree of certainty,” whether the seasonal flu vaccine could help prevent infection with H5N1, said Miller.

Although there’s no data yet, it’s quite possible that it could help prevent more severe disease once a person is infected, he said.

That’s because the seasonal flu vaccine contains a component of H1N1 virus, which “is relatively closely related to H5N1.”

“So the immunity that might help protect people against H5N1 is almost certainly conferred by either prior infection with or prior vaccination against H1N1 viruses that circulate in people,” Miller said.

HOW ELSE CAN I PROTECT MYSELF?

The Public Health Agency of Canada said as a general precaution, people shouldn’t handle live or dead wild birds or other wild animals, and keep pets away from sick or dead animals.

Those who work with animals or in animal-contaminated places should take personal protective measures, the agency said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 11, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.



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Wisconsin Supreme Court grapples with whether state’s 175-year-old abortion ban is valid

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MADISON, Wis. (AP) — A conservative prosecutor’s attorney struggled Monday to persuade the Wisconsin Supreme Court to reactivate the state’s 175-year-old abortion ban, drawing a tongue-lashing from two of the court’s liberal justices during oral arguments.

Sheboygan County’s Republican district attorney, Joel Urmanski, has asked the high court to overturn a Dane County judge’s ruling last year that invalidated the ban. A ruling isn’t expected for weeks but abortion advocates almost certainly will win the case given that liberal justices control the court. One of them, Janet Protasiewicz, remarked on the campaign trail that she supports abortion rights.

Monday’s two-hour session amounted to little more than political theater. Liberal Justice Rebecca Dallet told Urmanski’s attorney, Matthew Thome, that the ban was passed in 1849 by white men who held all the power and that he was ignoring everything that has happened since. Jill Karofsky, another liberal justice, pointed out that the ban provides no exceptions for rape or incest and that reactivation could result in doctors withholding medical care. She told Thome that he was essentially asking the court to sign a “death warrant” for women and children in Wisconsin.

“This is the world gone mad,” Karofsky said.

The ban stood until 1973, when the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion nationwide nullified it. Legislators never repealed the ban, however, and conservatives have argued the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe two years ago reactivated it.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit challenging the law in 2022. He argued that a 1985 Wisconsin law that prohibits abortion after a fetus reaches the point where it can survive outside the womb supersedes the ban. Some babies can survive with medical help after 21 weeks of gestation.

Urmanski contends that the ban was never repealed and that it can co-exist with the 1985 law because that law didn’t legalize abortion at any point. Other modern-day abortion restrictions also don’t legalize the practice, he argues.

Dane County Circuit Judge Diane Schlipper ruled last year that the ban outlaws feticide — which she defined as the killing of a fetus without the mother’s consent — but not consensual abortions. The ruling emboldened Planned Parenthood to resume offering abortions in Wisconsin after halting procedures after Roe was overturned.

Urmanski asked the state Supreme Court in February to overturn Schlipper’s ruling without waiting for a lower appellate decision.

Thome told the justices on Monday that he wasn’t arguing about the implications of reactivating the ban. He maintained that the legal theory that new laws implicitly repeal old ones is shaky. He also contended that the ban and the newer abortion restrictions can overlap just like laws establishing different penalties for the same crime. A ruling that the 1985 law effectively repealed the ban would be “anti-democratic,” Thome added.

“It’s a statute this Legislature has not repealed and you’re saying, no, you actually repealed it,” he said.

Dallet shot back that disregarding laws passed over the last 40 years to go back to 1849 would be undemocratic.

Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin filed a separate lawsuit in February asking the state Supreme Court to rule directly on whether a constitutional right to abortion exists in the state. The justices have agreed to take the case but haven’t scheduled oral arguments yet.

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This story has been updated to correct the Sheboygan County district attorney’s first name to Joel.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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When to catch the last supermoon of the year

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CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Better catch this week’s supermoon. It will be a while until the next one.

This will be the year’s fourth and final supermoon, looking bigger and brighter than usual as it comes within about 225,000 miles (361,867 kilometers) of Earth on Thursday. It won’t reach its full lunar phase until Friday.

The supermoon rises after the peak of the Taurid meteor shower and before the Leonids are most active.

Last month’s supermoon was 2,800 miles (4,500 kilometers) closer, making it the year’s closest. The series started in August.

In 2025, expect three supermoons beginning in October.

What makes a moon so super?

More a popular term than a scientific one, a supermoon occurs when a full lunar phase syncs up with an especially close swing around Earth. This usually happens only three or four times a year and consecutively, given the moon’s constantly shifting, oval-shaped orbit.

A supermoon obviously isn’t bigger, but it can appear that way, although scientists say the difference can be barely perceptible.

How do supermoons compare?

This year features a quartet of supermoons.

The one in August was 224,917 miles (361,970 kilometers) away. September’s was 222,131 miles (357,486 kilometers) away. A partial lunar eclipse also unfolded that night, visible in much of the Americas, Africa and Europe as Earth’s shadow fell on the moon, resembling a small bite.

October’s supermoon was the year’s closest at 222,055 miles (357,364 kilometers) from Earth. This month’s supermoon will make its closest approach on Thursday with the full lunar phase the next day.

What’s in it for me?

Scientists point out that only the keenest observers can discern the subtle differences. It’s easier to detect the change in brightness — a supermoon can be 30% brighter than average.

With the U.S. and other countries ramping up lunar exploration with landers and eventually astronauts, the moon beckons brighter than ever.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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