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Newest homebuyers could pay the price for Canada's financial stability – CBC.ca

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As in previous years, reading the Bank of Canada’s annual Financial System Review can be enough to send your pulse racing, and not in a good way.

On the bright side, this time around, those most likely to suffer from the bank’s warnings will be young enough to withstand the health effects of heart palpitations.

The main reason why the Financial System Review can be worrying — just as it was last year, when it warned of the dangers of rising mortgage debt when few thought high inflation would be a problem — is that the Bank of Canada’s main aim is to tell us all what could go wrong, to offer solutions and to help us prepare.

Unexpected but worrying

Again this time, as Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and his chief deputy, Carolyn Rogers, laid out their most ominous scenarios at Thursday’s news conference, they added a proviso.

“This is not what we expect to happen,” Macklem assured reporters after laying out a chilling series of potential events that could seriously damage the fortunes of those who poured their savings into a home during the pandemic as prices soared 50 per cent and interest rates plunged.

For those people, many of them young buyers hoping to get a first foot on what they expected would be a “property ladder,” the dire warnings may sound louder than the reassurances.

Macklem and Rogers insisted that since the vast majority of Canadians had paid off their mortgages or had manageable debt, the wider financial system was in little danger. But due to the absolute necessity of fighting inflation with rising interest rates, people who got in at the peak may be in trouble, especially if they lose their jobs. With jobs numbers on Friday predicted to remain strong, that seems far away, but things can change in a period of rising rates.


“If the economy slowed sharply and unemployment rose considerably, the combination of more highly indebted Canadians and high house prices could amplify the downturn,” Macklem said.

The central bankers reminded us that, in theory, the most recent buyers had a financial pad since “stress test” rules required buyers to have the financial capacity to pay a lot more than mortgage lenders were asking. But that did not mean young buyers had set aside the cash in an emergency account. Nothing prevented them from spending it on the inevitable necessities that come with a new home.

“If those highly indebted households lose their jobs, they would likely need to reduce their spending sharply to continue servicing their mortgage,” Macklem added, though where highly indebted and newly unemployed people would get the cash to do that is far from obvious.

Moderation or default?

Neither questioners nor central bankers uttered the word “default,” but if conditions really were to get as bad as the bleak scenario above, the number of mortgage defaults would likely rise.

Similarly, while the central bankers repeatedly talked about a necessary “moderation” in the housing market, there was no mention of the kind of serious decline in prices that some analysts are predicting.

Just as in last week’s news conference with deputy governor Paul Beaudry, reporters asked Macklem to respond to calls by Conservative leadership front-runner Pierre Poilievre for the bank governor to resign, saying he let inflation get out of hand.

Although Macklem tried his best to deflect the questions, it is hard to see critics being mollified if a surge in interest rates helps spur defaults among young and vulnerable recent homebuyers.

Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre has slammed the central bank, saying governor Tiff Macklem let inflation get out of hand. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Part of the logic for offering such a bleak forecast might be as a warning to the many Canadians who are still borrowing to buy houses at levels they may regret.

Figures released last week by TransUnion, a company that monitors household debt, shows despite the threat of rising rates, Canadian borrowing in the first three months of this year — including mortgages and lines of credit — was up more than nine per cent from the same period in 2021.

It seems everyone has a take on inflation and its consequences.

The World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have warned of the dangers of stagflation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified to the U.S. Senate that high inflation would persist. Even rapper Cardi B and billionaire Elon Musk have weighed in with predictions of a recession, Canadian Business reports.

WATCH | Bank of Canada governor on threat to fire him over high inflation:

Bank of Canada governor on Pierre Poilievre’s threat to fire him

1 day ago

Duration 1:24

Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, said he will leave politics to the politicians when asked about Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre’s campaign promise to fire him.

According to Macklem, the situation remains “delicate,” a term he used more than once.

After what he called the biggest economic shock he hoped we would ever face, including “two years of a pandemic and unprecedented economic and social upheaval,” the governor implied he would reluctantly accept recession as the price of getting inflation under control.

The clear implication is that for financial stability, inflation is now a more important problem than a weakening housing market and that some of those who ignored last year’s warning that surging mortgage borrowing was an accident waiting to happen may be sacrificed for the greater good.

“The housing market, it’s an important part of the economy,” Macklem said. “We are watching it closely, but our focus ultimately is on the whole economy and in getting inflation back to target.”

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

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Tampa Bay Lightning select Victor Hedman as captain, succeeding Steven Stamkos

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TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.

Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.

“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”

The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.

Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.

___

AP NHL:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Toronto FC Jason Hernandez looks to clean up salary cap and open up the future

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TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.

That has been easier said than done this season.

Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.

But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.

“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”

The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.

Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.

“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”

While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.

TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”

“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.

While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.

“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”

Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.

Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.

MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.

Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.

Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.

There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.

Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.

Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.

Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.

Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.

The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.

While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.

Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.

“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.

“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.

But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.

“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”

After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024



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Canada’s Hughes may be what International team has been missing at Presidents Cup

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Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.

Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.

His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.

“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.

“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”

Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.

Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.

However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).

“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.

“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”

It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.

“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”

This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.

“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour

“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”

Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.

He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.

“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”

An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.

Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.

“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”

DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.

KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.

CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.

LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.

EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.



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