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Why the U.S. Fed rate hold is good news for the loonie — and the Bank of Canada

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The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady as the Bank of Canada reignites its rate-hike cycle could be good news for the Canadian dollar and the inflation fight north of the border, according to a BMO economist.

Benjamin Reitzes, BMO’s managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist, tells Global News that even temporarily divergent rate paths from the central banks would be a boon for the loonie, which in turn could limit how restrictive the Bank of Canada needs its policy rate to be.

The U.S. Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday — its first pause after 10 consecutive hikes — comes a week after the Bank of Canada came off the sidelines to increase rates by another quarter percentage point.

Some economists and big banks, including BMO, are calling for another rate hike from the Bank of Canada in an upcoming decision in July. Market odds are leaning that way as well, Reitzes notes.

The Fed also signalled two small rate hikes could be in the cards for the rest of the year following its pause in June.

Central banks on both sides of the border are “almost entirely” dependent on the kinds of economic data they see in their inflation and labour market reports over the next few months, Reitzes says.

TD Bank senior economist James Orlando said in a note to clients on Wednesday that if the U.S. economy slows according to TD’s forecasts in the latter half of the year, it could be enough to keep the Fed on pause indefinitely — despite the suggestion of additional hikes.

If the Bank of Canada delivers on expectations and hikes rates in back-to-back decisions while the U.S. Fed moves off to the sidelines, Reitzes says the differential between those two rates will be good news for the loonie — and by extension, Canada’s inflation fight.

When the Bank of Canada’s policy rate moves higher relative to the Fed’s, that gives the Canadian dollar a boost relative to its U.S. counterpart, Reitzes explains. Global investors tend to flock to currencies backed by higher central bank rates, driving up the demand and value of that currency.

The Canadian dollar hit a four-month high ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision from the U.S. Fed, according to Reuters, which said strength in oil prices was giving another boost to the loonie. The Canadian dollar held steady at around 75 cents to the U.S. dollar Wednesday afternoon following news of the pause.

That’s great news for Canadians who are vacationing south of the border this summer, as a stronger loonie increases their spending power, Reitzes says.

But it also affects the costs of imports from the U.S., which can take some of the pressure off inflation, he adds.

“Things like food prices and other imported goods would come down a little bit, help battle inflation that much more,” Reitzes says.

That can add some extra fuel to the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring inflation back down to its two per cent target, Reitzes says, and may mean it can limit how high interest rates need to go or how long they have to stay there.

“At the end of the day, if you get the Canadian dollar strengthening sufficiently, maybe it means the bank needs to do that much less to bring inflation down.”

 

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

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