The trade

Maple Leafs get: Ryan O’Reilly (50 percent of salary retained by Blues, 25 percent by Wild), Noel Acciari and Josh Pillar

Blues get: Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette, Toronto’s first-round selection in the 2023 draft, Ottawa’s third-round selection in the 2023 draft and Toronto’s second-round selection in the 2024 draft

Wild get: Maple Leafs’ fourth-round selection in the 2025 draft

Eric Duhatschek: So, what looks like a complicated three-way trade among the Leafs, Blues and Wild — which officially included nine separate pieces — really comes down to this: Toronto spent big to pick up the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Ryan O’Reilly, in a bid to end one of the most puzzling, frustrating, lengthy examples of playoff futility. An inability to win a round since 2004. An inability to win a championship since 1967.

Is O’Reilly the missing piece? Based on the evidence of this season alone, maybe not. He’s had an up-and-down time of it, with just 19 points in 40 games overall, looking as if the years are taking their toll on a heart-and-soul player who bleeds team and oozes leadership.

But he’s been better of late, after recovering from a broken foot and returning to the Blues’ lineup following a 14-game absence, and has managed three points in three games. Ultimately, the Leafs are banking on the fact that when the postseason begins, pedigree matters.

With O’Reilly on board, the Leafs make up a small bit of ground on the vast lead that the Tampa Bay Lightning have in playoff experience — and who’s kidding who? With two months to go in the season, it would take a miracle for Toronto’s first-round opponent to be anyone other than the battle-tested Lightning. One could argue that Toronto has questions in goal and on defense, in addition to the fact that they are a touch soft up front.

O’Reilly balances the scales a little and Noel Acciari, serviceable and experienced, is a useful depth add, though there is no point in overrating what he brings either. In 54 career playoff games, Acciari has seven points. He’ll battle for the Leafs in the trenches, but his contributions will mostly be in providing invisible minutes and the ability to push back when the likes of Pat Maroon and Corey Perry try to flex their muscles against a Leafs team with a softish bottom six.

The acquisition cost — not just to land O’Reilly, but to get the Minnesota Wild to soften the financial blow — ends up being four draft picks: a first, a second, a third and a fourth, spread out over four years. The third pick originally belonged to Ottawa, which Toronto acquired when they agreed to take Matt Murray and his contract off the Senators’ hands. One could still argue that Toronto’s biggest question mark remains in goal, and that when they do play the Lightning, the gap between Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov will be cavernous.

There’s only value in surrendering that much draft capital if you win. Not so much if you lose. Could the Leafs have spent that elsewhere? Maybe. It all hinges on what O’Reilly ultimately brings to the mix — and if his presence ends that long, lengthy playoff drought.

The Blues get a player, Adam Gaudette, who has been almost a point-a-game player in the AHL but really doesn’t project as an NHLer anymore, plus 2019 fourth-rounder Mikhail Abramov. Minnesota essentially buys a fourth-round pick for retaining a quarter of O’Reilly’s salary.

Maple Leafs grade: B
Blues grade: B-plus
Wild grade: B

Dom Luszczyszyn: Four years ago, O’Reilly won the Selke Trophy, the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup. That O’Reilly is probably not walking through the door for the Maple Leafs, not after his weakest season in years. The idea of the man is a bit bigger than what the man actually is, but the Leafs are still acquiring a strong, smart player with playoff pedigree. He’s just in need of a lesser role.

If you’re expecting a top-line center, like what O’Reilly had been for the past half-decade or so, chances are you’ll be disappointed. At age 32, O’Reilly’s game has dropped below that level this season as he’s struggled to produce anywhere near his usual rate. But the Leafs don’t need O’Reilly to be a top-line center; they already have two of the game’s best. They need someone who can lead the supporting cast, and that’s a role O’Reilly should be able to thrive in.

O’Reilly’s value has dropped every year since 2018-19, but he’s still projected to be worth 1.2 wins. That may even be modest, given some of the bad luck he’s faced this year compared to years prior and the context of his minutes. O’Reilly’s minutes are tougher than 97 percent of the league this season, but they surely won’t be in Toronto, where he’ll play either on one of the top two lines or in a lessened shutdown role in the bottom six. Either way, he should put up better numbers with the Leafs.

There is some concern with O’Reilly at both ends of the ice this season that make his acquisition a bit of a risk. He’s allowing chances and goals at the highest rate of his career and while he’s creating a lot of chances the other way, they aren’t going in. Relative to teammates, his impact on goals has been negative for two straight seasons. Maybe that’s bad luck, but it’s one reason to be cautious about calling the move a certified slam dunk.

The Leafs need it to be, because they paid a huge cost in draft picks to make it happen. Toronto shipped out first-, second-, third- and fourth-round picks to make the money work — a hefty price — and added Acciari as well. St. Louis did very well to get that much for a declining asset and should be commended for getting top dollar back despite a down season for O’Reilly.

That huge cost won’t matter if it works, and O’Reilly very well might be the piece that puts Toronto over the top. But it’s still a risk to essentially go all-in on a 32-year-old coming off an injury and playing well below his usual standards. O’Reilly’s reputation is sterling enough to make him a worthwhile target, and his playoff resume is obviously attractive to a team like the Leafs, who are desperate to finally take the next step. It’s time to see if he lives up to the hype and gets them there.

Maple Leafs grade: B
Blues grade: A
Wild grade: B

(Photo of Ryan O’Reilly: Bob Frid / USA Today)

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