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Nvidia shatters stock market record by adding over $230 billion in value in one day. Here’s why it’s dominating the AI chip race

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Chip designer Nvidia has emerged as the clear winner in not just the early stages of the AI boom but, at least so far, in all of stock market history. The $1.9 trillion AI giant surged to a record-high stock price on Thursday, putting it on course to add over $230 billion to its market capitalization and shatter a one-day record only weeks old: Meta’s $197 billion gain in early February.

It’s dominating the market, selling over 70% of all AI chips, and startups are desperate to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Nvidia’s hardware systems. Wall Street can’t get enough, either—Nvidia stock rocketed up an astonishing 15% after the company smashed its lofty earnings goals last quarter, bringing its market cap to over $1.9 trillion on top of its stock value tripling in the past year alone.

So … why? How is it that a company founded all the way back in 1993 has displaced tech titans Alphabet and Amazon, leapfrogging them to become the third-most valuable company in the world? It all comes down to Nvidia’s leading semiconductor chips for use in artificial intelligence.

The company that ‘got it’

Nvidia built up its advantage by playing the long game and investing in AI years before ChatGPT hit the market, and its chip designs are so far ahead of the competition that analysts wonder if it’s even possible for anyone else to catch up. Designers such as Arm Holdings and Intel, for instance, haven’t yet integrated hardware with AI-targeted software in the way Nvidia has.

“This is one of the great observations that we made: We realized that deep learning and AI was not [just] a chip problem … Every aspect of computing has fundamentally changed,” said Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang at the New York Times DealBook Summit in November. “We observed and realized that about a decade and a half ago. I think a lot of people are still trying to sort that out.” Huang added that Nvidia just “got it” before anyone else did: “The reason why people say we’re practically the only company doing it is because we’re probably the only company that got it. And people are still trying to get it.”

Software has been a key part of that equation. While competitors have focused their efforts on chip design, Nvidia has aggressively pushed its CUDA programming interface that runs on top of its chips. That dual emphasis on software and hardware has made Nvidia chips the must-have tool for any developer looking to get into AI.

“Nvidia has done just a masterful job of making it easier to run on CUDA than to run on anything else,” said Edward Wilford, an analyst at tech consultancy Omdia. “CUDA is hands down the jewel in Nvidia’s crown. It’s the thing that’s gotten them this far. And I think it’s going to carry them for a while longer.”

AI needs computing power—a lot of computing power. AI chatbots such as ChatGPT are trained by inhaling vast quantities of data sourced from the internet—up to a trillion distinct pieces of information. That data is fed into a neural network that catalogs the associations between various words and phrases, which, after human training, can be used to produce responses to user queries in natural language. All those trillions of data points require huge amounts of hardware capacity, and hardware demand is only expected to increase as the AI field continues to grow. That’s put Nvidia, the sector’s biggest seller, in a great position to benefit.

Huang sounded a similar tune on his triumphant earnings call on Wednesday. Highlighting the shift from general-purpose computing to what he called “accelerated computing” at data centers, he argued that it’s “a whole new way of doing computing”—and even crowned it “a whole new industry.”

Early on the AI boom

Nvidia has been at the forefront of AI hardware from the start. When large-scale AI research from startups such as OpenAI started ramping up in the mid-2010s, Nvidia—through a mixture of luck and smart bets—was in the right place at the right time.

Nvidia had long been known for its innovative GPUs, a type of chip popular in gaming applications. Most standard computer chips, called CPUs, excel at performing complicated calculations in sequence, one at a time. But GPUs can perform many simple calculations at once, making them excellent at supporting the complex graphics processing that video games demand. As it turned out, Nvidia’s GPUs were a perfect fit for the type of computing systems AI developers needed to build and train LLMs.

“To some extent, you could say they’ve been extremely lucky. But I think that diminishes it—they have capitalized perfectly on every instance of luck, on every opportunity they were given,” said Wilford. “If you go back five or 10 years, you see this ramp-up in console gaming. They rode that, and then when they felt that wave cresting, they got into cryptocurrency mining, and they rode that. And then just as that wave crested, AI started to take off.”

In fact, Nvidia had been quietly developing AI-targeted hardware for years. As far back as 2012, Nvidia chips were the technical foundation of AlexNet, the groundbreaking early neural network developed in part by OpenAI cofounder and former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, who recently left the nonprofit after trying to oust CEO Sam Altman. That first mover advantage has given Nvidia a big leg up over its competitors.

“They were visionaries … For Jensen, that goes back to his days at Stanford,” said Wilford. “He’s been waiting for this opportunity the whole time. And he’s kept Nvidia in a position to jump on it whenever the chance came. What we’ve seen in the last few years is that strategy executed to perfection. I can’t imagine someone doing better with it than Nvidia has.”

Since its early AI investments over a decade ago, Nvidia has poured millions into a hugely profitable AI hardware business. The company sells its flagship Hopper GPU for a quarter of a million dollars per unit. It’s a 70-pound supercomputer, built from 35,000 individual pieces—and the waiting list for customers to get their hands on one is months long. Desperate AI developers are turning to organizations like the San Francisco Compute Group, which rents out computing power by the hour from its collection of Nvidia chips. (As of this article’s publication, they’re booked out for almost a month.)

Nvidia’s AI chip juggernaut is poised to grow even more if AI growth meets analysts’ expectations.

“Nvidia delivered against what was seemingly a very high bar,” wrote Goldman Sachs in its Nvidia earnings analysis. “We expect not only sustained growth in gen AI infrastructure spending by the large CSPs [communications service providers] and consumer internet companies, but also increased development and adoption of AI across enterprise customers representing various industry verticals and, increasingly, sovereign states.”

There are some potential threats to Nvidia’s market domination. For one, investors noted in the company’s most recent earnings that restrictions on exports to China dinged business, and a potential increase in competition from Chinese chip designers could put pressure on Nvidia’s global market share. Nvidia is also dependent on Taiwanese chip foundry TSMC to actually manufacture many of the chips it designs. The Biden administration has been pushing for more investment in domestic manufacturing through the CHIPS Act, but Huang himself said it will be at least a decade before American foundries could be fully operational.

“[Nvidia is] highly dependent on TSMC in Taiwan, and there are regional complications [associated with that], there are political complications,” said Wilford. “[And] the Chinese government is investing very heavily in developing their own AI capabilities as a result of some of those same tensions.”

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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