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Nvidia Stock: Is There Any Value Left After Its 60% Jump? Morgan Stanley Weighs In – TipRanks.com – TipRanks

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To the surprise of exactly no one, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported blowout results on Wednesday evening, sending its stock flying more than 16% higher on Thursday. This propelled the stock’s year-to-date performance to a whopping 60% surge.

And surprising or no, the Q4 2023 numbers Nvidia reported quite simply boggle the mind:

  • Sales roared ahead 265% year over year, to $22.1 billion.
  • Data center sales – the unit that houses the AI chips production – in particular surged 409%.
  • Adjusted profits were up 486% year over year.
  • And GAAP profits did even better, rising 765% to $4.93 per diluted share.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, who was already feeling pretty optimistic about Nvidia stock before the earnings news, came away even more so, reiterating his “overweight” rating (i.e. buy) on Nvidia, and raising his price target from $750 to $795 a share. (To watch Moore’s track record, click here)

What did he like about the report, specifically?

AI demand remains “remarkable,” enthused the analyst, with Nvidia reporting $4.5 billion more data center revenue than even Nvidia itself had predicted was possible. Granted, heading into the report, Moore was already thinking that Nvidia’s predictions were too low, leading him to revise his own forecast “sharply” upward just a few weeks ago. But then Nvidia went and beat even his revised forecast.

And we’re not just talking about better sales numbers. As Moore points out, Nvidia also “upsided” its gross profit margin on those sales (so more revenue dollars, and also more profit pennies squeezed out of each such dollar). In total, Nvidia managed to earn gross profit margins of 76% in Q4 2023, and incredible 1270 basis point improvement over just one year ago.

What’s more, this doesn’t appear to be some kind of flash in the pan. Commenting on how things are looking in the AI semiconductor market, Nvidia advised that “demand will be well above supply by a material amount” in the coming year. And as any student of economics can tell you, when demand rises faster than supply, prices – and profit margins – just keep going higher.

The fact that Nvidia is saying its supply of H100 AI chips is already “allocated” (i.e. preorders are waiting to be filled) “supply through end of life” of that line of chips, while supplies of the upcoming B100 chip are already “sold out for several quarters” just reinforces the view that there’s a huge supply crunch in progress here, while demand continues unabated.

Unsurprisingly then, Nvidia’s guidance for the first quarter of 2024 already underway looks very strong indeed. Sales are forecast at $24 billion (and Moore thinks they’ll even be a little stronger than that). Gross profit margins, already well into the stratosphere, are only going to get more stratospheric, growing from 76% in Q4 2023 to 77% in Q1 2024. And the fact that most Wall Street analysts are only forecasting $21.4 billion in Q1 sales, and less than 75% gross profit margins, means it’s looking all but certain that Nvidia is going to beat earnings once again three months from now.

Skeptics can argue all they want, that good news like this cannot last forever. But for now at least, it does seem like Nvidia’s good news is going to last for at least another quarter.

Like the Morgan Stanley analyst, the rest of the Street is bullish on NVDA. 38 Buy ratings compared to only 2 Holds add up to a Strong Buy consensus rating. (See NVDA stock forecast)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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