A man rides past containers at an industrial port in Tokyo on May 22, 2019.
Kim Kyung Hoon/Reuters
The global economy appears to be recovering from the coronavirus slump faster than thought only a few months ago thanks to improving outlooks for China and the United States, the OECD said on Wednesday.
The world economy is on course to contract 4.5 per cent this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said, which – though unprecedented in recent history – was up from the 6 per cent contraction that it forecast in June.
Provided the virus is kept from spreading out of control, the global economy will bounce back into growth next year by expanding 5 per cent, trimmed from a June forecast of 5.2 per cent, the Paris-based policy forum said.
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However, a stronger resurgence of the virus or more strict measures to contain it could chop 2-3 percentage points from the 2021 outlook, the OECD warned.
The OECD said its forecasts were built on the assumption that local outbreaks would continue and would be targeted with local action rather than nationwide lockdowns. It also assumed a vaccine would not be widely available until late next year.
The OECD said governments and central banks’ actions to support households and companies’ incomes had helped avert worse downturns and should therefore be kept up as outbreaks keep appearing sporadically.
Its brighter overall outlook for this year masked big differences between major economies with the United States, China and Europe seen performing better than feared while India, Mexico and South Africa may do worse as they struggle to contain the virus.
Having been the first country to experience the outbreak and having moved swiftly to control its spread, China was forecast to be the only country in the G20 group of economic powers to see growth this year with an increase of 1.8 per cent, up from a June projection of a contraction of 2.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy, the world’s biggest, was also forecast to fare better this year than previously feared with a contraction of 3.8 per cent, still dire but far better than the -7.3 per cent forecast previously.
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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
