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Oil price plunges to lowest level since 1986 as world drowns in oversupply – CBC.ca

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The economic slowdown caused by COVID-19 is pushing oil prices down to their lowest level in more than 30 years.

The most current futures contract for West Texas Intermediate fell by $8 US a barrel on Monday, going as low as $10.10 US in a plunge of more than 40 per cent.

If that level holds until the end of the day, it will be the lowest closing price for WTI since March 1986.

The oil price is especially volatile on Monday because it’s the last trading day for oil contracted to be delivered in May. Traders are scrambling to settle their positions before actual delivery of the oil gets finalized on Tuesday, at which point oil for June delivery will be the benchmark price.

The contract for oil to be delivered next month is plunging because anyone caught owning it as of the end of business on Monday will have to find a place to store the oil soon, a task that’s getting harder and harder of late.

The price is going down because there’s very little demand for oil, and the world is running out of places to store the excess. Storage tanks at the U.S. hub of Cushing, Okla., are now holding 55 million barrels of crude, which is their highest level since 2018.

Storage on land is filling up everywhere, so some producers have taken to storing their excess oil at sea, renting tankers to float aimlessly to store the crude until a higher price or buyer can be found. Rates for the biggest oil tankers have soared as producers scramble to secure space to keep the crude they don’t know what else to do with.

“Floating storage remains the only outlet for a mismatched production and consumption backdrop,” Evercore shipping analyst Jonathan Chappell said in a note to clients last week.

The going rate for the biggest oil tankers in the world hit $165,000 a day this weekend, Chappell calculates, but despite that up-front cost, “it is difficult to envision a scenario where floating storage is not economic and required over the coming months.”

As supply vastly outpaces demand, oil companies have started storing excess oil in floating tankers with no destination, waiting for prices to rebound. (Marcelo del Pozo/Bloomberg)

That’s because there’s not enough demand for the stuff that’s already out there. The oil cartel known as OPEC tried to address that earlier this month by promising to pump 10 million fewer barrels of oil every day, but even that huge cut isn’t enough to offset the corresponding drop in demand.

Lockdowns, travel bans and the general economic slowdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for oil by about 25 million barrels a day, so OPEC turning off the spigots by 10 million barely makes a dent.

“If your bathtub is about to overflow and you turn down the tap a little, it will still overflow,” oil analyst Bjarne Schieldrop with SEB Research said Monday.

“The oil price is now ordering producers to halt production and it is happening at high speed and in an unorderly fashion. This is creating damage to production and some of it will never come back online again.”

Canada’s oil price plunges

Canadian oil producers are among those in danger of turning off the taps if these prices persist. The type of oil from Canada’s oilsands is known as Western Canadian Select and it typically trades at a discount of between $10 and $15 to WTI, because it is harder to transport and refine.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney tweeted on Monday that the price of WCS actually dipped into negative territory overnight — meaning Canadian oil companies are functionally having to pay to get rid of their product.

Raymond James analyst Jeremy McCrea told CBC News in an interview that he expects the price of WCS will seesaw above and below the $0 level for a little while yet.

“We did see WCS go negative this morning,” he said in an interview. “As we look forward into the next month it does seem to get a little bit better but with storage so full and getting more full by the day it doesn’t look too optimistic over the next couple months.”

Hedge fund executive Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital said negative prices make sense in the current climate. 

“There is no limit to the downside to prices when inventories and pipelines are full,” he tweeted. “Negative prices are possible.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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