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Oil Price War Could Wreak Havoc On Eurasian Economies – OilPrice.com

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Oil Price War Could Wreak Havoc On Eurasian Economies | OilPrice.com

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Baku Azerbaijan

A feud between Saudi Arabia and Russia that sent oil prices plunging on March 9 has rewritten economic forecasts across Eurasia.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia – the former Soviet Union’s largest oil producers – are preparing for budget shortfalls, pressure on their currencies and possibly recession. Adding to uncertainty is the panic over the quickening spread of the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19, which has cut consumer demand around the world.

Only last year Azerbaijan increased pensions and other social services to ease the pain of inflation and address rising discontent. At the time, President Ilham Aliyev said the spending would be covered by reforms to the tax system. Some of those funds would come from higher customs revenues, consumer spending (via a value-added tax), and an expected uptick in tourist arrivals. Yet these returns are now expected to fall because of COVID-19, said Gubad Ibadoglu, a senior analyst at the Economic Research Center in Baku and an assistant professor of economics at Rutgers University.

According to IMF data, Azerbaijan needs an oil price of around $53 per barrel to balance its budget. Benchmark Brent crude was trading around $36 on March 9, a market holiday in much of the former Soviet Union.

Because the government fears unrest, “it is impossible to cut social payments, which are almost 65 percent of the state budget,” Ibadoglu said in an interview. “The only way [to save] is to cut the investment budget and the defense budget. It’s not easy to cut the defense budget […] and the investment budget was already smaller [in 2020] than last year.”

After the last oil crash, in 2014, Azerbaijan devalued the manat twice. This time Ibadoglu expects Baku to manage a softer slide by spending hard currency reserves but foresees a run on banks when they open March 10 after a holiday weekend. “Nobody trusts the banking sector after the two devaluations,” he said. He also calculates that the Central Bank only has reserves to manage the manat for a few months.

Related: Can Saudi Arabia Survive The Oil Price War It Started?

In Kazakhstan, where the budget is based on an oil price around $57.80, President Jomart Kassym-Tokayev on March 9 promised to fulfill all government social obligations, but said Nur-Sultan would be forced to cut somewhere.

The oil price crash couldn’t come at a worse time. In recent days, citing force majeure due to the coronavirus, China has signaled it may slow purchases of gas from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Turkmenistan is China’s largest gas supplier and China buys almost 80 percent of Turkmen gas.

Many in the region will be glad to hear sthat at least Russia is better equipped to manage the crash this time than in 2014, though any recession would likely hurt migrant laborers.

Combined, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan supply Russia with 4-5 million temporary workers; Armenia adds hundreds of thousands more. These workers’ wages contribute the equivalent of over 30 percent of GDP in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, making them two of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. After the 2014 crash, remittances to Central Asia fell over 50 percent, sowing pain in places like Naryn and Badakhshan. The transfers had largely recovered in recent years.

Today Moscow is much better prepared than it was six years ago, when the oil collapse combined with Western sanctions over Russia’s military adventures in Ukraine gutted the ruble, sending the currency to record lows. Since then Moscow has adopted a fiscal rule, basing its budget on an oil price of $42.60 per barrel; earnings above that amount are stashed in a sovereign wealth fund. When oil falls below that point, reports The Bell, the funds are spent to shore up budget deficits. (The Finance Ministry says that the amount currently in the fund, which is over 10.1 trillion rubles, will be enough to last Russia 6-10 years with oil prices at $25-30.)

This has somewhat decoupled the ruble from the oil price, though the ruble fell about 9 percent on forex markets March 9. The ruble’s fall will push down other currencies in the region.

For consumers, some of this pain may be mitigated by lower energy prices. For oil producers that price their exports in dollars, weaker currencies will make domestic spending cheaper. But any consolation will be ephemeral: Weaker currencies should stoke inflation.

Ibadoglu said Baku did not learn from previous devaluations, that it has done too little to wean itself off oil revenues. Today looks a lot like the day before the last crisis, he said: “The budget depends almost the same on the oil price and on oil revenues.”

By Eurasianet.org

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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