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Oil Prices Climb But Remain On Course For A Fourth Consecutive Monthly Loss – OilPrice.com

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Oil Prices On Course For A Fourth Consecutive Monthly Loss | OilPrice.com




Michael Kern

Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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Oil prices were up early on Tuesday morning, but both WTI and Brent remain on course for a fourth consecutive monthly loss, although there are some bullish catalysts looming in March.

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Oil prices

Rig

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Chart of the Week

Drought

– After Europe suffered its worst drought in 500 years last summer, early indications point towards the same scenario (if not worse) happening once again in 2023.   

– France’s nuclear woes might continue as water available to cool nuclear reactors is in short supply, whilst the country’s hydropower generation drops to its lowest level since 1976.

– Rhine water levels, Germany’s key waterway, are set to fall below the one-meter mark in the first days of March already as precipitation is a quarter of its usual levels and snow coverage in the Alps remains low.

– Germany’s Rhine problem might be particularly bullish for inland diesel prices as the river is used to haul diesel cargoes further into inland Europe and if tankers can only be laden half-full then costs will soar.  

Market Movers

– UK major BP (NYSE:BP) and US heavyweight Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have signed memoranda of understanding with Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical to supply its 400,000 b/d refinery in Shandong.  

– US shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) was reportedly interested in acquiring smaller rival Range Resources (NYSE:RRC), but the shale company refuted the Bloomberg report. 

– The world’s largest chemicals producer BASF (ETR:BAS) will cut 2,600 jobs across Europe, halt share buybacks, and close one of its ammonia plants in Germany as rising costs jeopardize its earnings. 

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Oil prices were up slightly on Tuesday morning but remained on course for a fourth consecutive monthly loss. There are some potentially bullish catalysts looming this week, with the market preparing for new Chinese economic data (especially industrial activity readings) and U.S. crude inventories. WTI might see some additional support should U.S. oil stocks reverse the trend after eight consecutive weeks of builds, although preliminary data still seems to suggest a minor inventory increase.

US Natural Gas Bounces Back from Trough. Forecasts for colder weather and a stronger pull from U.S. liquefaction facilities (at 12.8 Bcf per day) have pushed up Henry Hub natural gas futures to a one-month high of $2.7 per mmBtu, easing fears that low prices would trigger output cuts. 

EU Approves 10th Sanctions Package. Following three unsuccessful attempts the European Union approved late Friday a 10th package of Russia sanctions including export restrictions on dual-use goods, SWIFT bans on several private banks, and the blacklisting of individuals Brussels says are Russian propagandists. 

Russia Halts Oil Exports to Poland. Poland’s national oil company PKN Orlen (WSE:PKN) announced Russia halted its pipeline oil supplies to the Eastern European country over the weekend, adding that Russia only accounted for 10% of supply and it would tap into other sources for its refinery needs. 

French Court to Rule on Uganda Pipeline Case. The Paris civil court is set to rule on a lawsuit filed by NGO Friends of the Earth, accusing French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) of widespread land expropriation and drilling in environmentally fragile areas in Uganda, potentially derailing the $3.5 billion East African Crude Oil pipeline. 

Ecuador Production Halved by Landslides. Ecuador’s oil production has halved to 240,000 b/d as a deadly landslide in the Amazonian province of Napo damaged the country’s two main pipelines, the 360,000 b/d Sote and 450,000 b/d OCP, and forced producers to halt production.  

Brazil to Levy Fuel Taxes Again. In a big win for the country’s finance ministry and ethanol producers, Brazil will resume the collection of federal taxes on transportation fuels in a reversal of a Bolsonaro-era waiver in a bid to generate $5.6 billion of additional revenues to the federal budget. 

US Hikes Aluminium Tariffs on Russia. In a boost to US smelters such as Alcoa (NYSE:AA), the Biden administration introduced sanctions on Russia’s aluminum exports into the United States and slapped a 200% ad valorem tariff starting from March 10, decrying the increase in US imports in both 2021 and 2022.

China Probes Lithium Producers. The Chinese government launched an investigation into environmental infringements of lithium producers in the province of Jiangxi, with potential disruptions in lepidolite mining threatening between 8% and 13% of global supply. 

Things Get Worse for Mexican Oil. Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, has had a tough week. As it attempts to fix its downstream system after three refinery fires last week, the company has now posted a $9.4 billion loss for the fourth quarter of 2022. Its debt has now spiked to $107.7 billion.

Probe Finds Oil Majors Ignored Seismic Risks in the Netherlands. A Dutch parliamentary inquiry found energy majors Shell (LON:SHEL) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) repeatedly ignored the risks of gas production at the Netherlands’ Groningen field, leading to tremors that have damaged thousands of buildings. 

Colombia Rebels Ramp Up Pipeline Attacks. Colombian rebels have once again bombed the country’s main crude export conduit, the 220,000 b/d Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline as ceasefire talks between the government and the ELN group have so far yielded no results. 

France Tries to Build Pro-Nuclear Alliance. France will convene a meeting of 12 EU countries on the sidelines of the upcoming energy ministers meeting in Stockholm as Paris seeks to build a pro-nuclear bloc to counter the likes of Germany and Spain that opposes labeling nuclear as “green”.

The Chinese Love of Coal Continues Unabated. China approved the construction of 106 GW of new coal-fired power plants last year, the highest number since 2015 and four times higher than in 2021, with the speed of project approvals speeding up to only a couple of months.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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