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Oil rises bolstered by speculation of China's economy reopening – BNN Bloomberg

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Oil gained on speculation that China is preparing to gradually exit the country’s COVID-Zero policy.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.1 per cent to settle above US$88 a barrel after losing ground in the previous two sessions. Oil followed global stock markets higher after an unverified social media post triggered speculation Beijing is looking to phase out COVID restrictions — despite the country’s Foreign Ministry saying it was unaware of such a plan. A weakening dollar also supported prices, with commodities priced in the currency more attractive to buyers.

“Potential changes to China’s COVID policy — real or speculated — will create volatility in crude trading,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. But she cautioned that if “investors did think that China was changing their COVID policy, the move higher would be much more significant.”

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While oil is down by almost a third since early June, futures ended October higher in the first monthly gain since May — buoyed by the OPEC+ output cut agreement. The group’s Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said Monday the cuts were necessary because economic uncertainty would lead to excess supplies. But the supply outlook is clouded by impending European Union sanctions on Russian crude flows set to take effect from Dec. 5.  

Prices:

  • WTI for December delivery rose US$1.84 to settle at US$88.37 in New York.
  • Brent for January settlement gained US$1.84 to settle at US$94.65.

“We’re in a tale of two markets,” Joe McMonigle, the International Energy Forum’s secretary-general, told Bloomberg TV at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi. “The physical markets are very tight. The paper markets are pricing in bad economic news and a bad recession.”

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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