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Oil's Black Friday: Algos, options turn a tumble into a crash – BNN

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Black Friday turned red very quickly for global oil markets. 

The day after Thanksgiving has been choppy before — fewer traders can mean more volatility — but nothing like this year. The prospect of the freshly named Omicron variant of COVID derailing the world’s fight against the pandemic saw an early morning sell-off become a full-blown crash. 

At the end, investors were rushing to cover short positions, analysts were ripping up forecasts and next week’s OPEC+ meeting was up in the air. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, closed 13 per cent lower, the biggest decline since April 2020. Brent crude slumped 12 per cent.

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Oil had climbed fairly steadily through the year, staging a comeback as economic life gradually recovered from the pandemic, putting drivers back in cars and passengers into planes. Many analysts have global demand close to pre-pandemic levels above 100 million barrels a day. With OPEC+ keeping a tight grip on supply, several senior traders said US$100 oil could be close. 

But news of a fresh COVID-19 variant, which scientists fear could be more transmissible and less susceptible to vaccines than existing strains, sent familiar shivers through the market. Benchmark crude futures posted the biggest single-day plunge since the early days of the pandemic, showing just how fragile this recovery is. 

“It’s been a crazy day in the markets that feels very reminiscent of last March,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe. 

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The initial plunge was driven by revived fears of widespread lockdowns and travel bans, but a host of technical factors, including anemic post-holiday volumes, exacerbated the sell-off. The panic spread to every corner of the market from European diesel trades and time-spreads, the relative value of oil today to oil tomorrow, through to opaque options markets. 

“Factors such as the break of technical support levels and an environment with lower liquidity post the Thanksgiving holiday have intensified the price drop,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.

It had already been an unusual week in the market. On Tuesday, the U.S. and other top oil consumers said they would release supplies from emergency reserves in a bid to curb surging energy costs. In response, the OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, had said it might scrap plans to increase production. London’s benchmark Brent prices rallied back above US$80 a barrel.

But that was before Omicron.

Asia and European trading saw a steady sell-off early on Friday, prices were down 5 per cent by mid-morning in London. But the real excitement came in U.S. hours. 

The market spiraled ever lower as oil broke through key technical levels — U.S. futures pierced their 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That gave algorithmic computer-driven trades the upper hand on a day when many participants were away from the market. 

“The sell-off has no doubt been driven exacerbated by algo-driven trading as key technical levels broke down,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets.

Then the options market kicked in. When prices fall heavily, banks often sell futures contracts in order to hedge themselves against losses from put options — contracts that grant the right to sell at a particular price. Banks often sell puts to producers who want to protect against a bear market. This feedback loop, known as negative gamma to options traders, was seen as a factor on Friday.

“Dealers just took down hedges and they are shorter put options than normal, so must sell futures to hedge,” said Ilia Bouchouev, a partner at Pentathlon Investments and former head of oil derivatives at Koch Supply and Trading.

At the worst point of the crash, New York’s WTI futures slumped 14 per cent from its pre-Thanksgiving close and London’s Brent collapsed more than 12 per cent. By the close they’d both recovered slightly, but for London futures it was still the seventh worst one-day drop in history.

What happens next depends on whether the direst predictions for Omicron’s impact are realized. 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note that Friday’s move priced in a 4 million-barrel hit to demand over the next three months, nowhere close to the first lockdown, but more than enough to throw the market back into disarray. In any case, the Wall Street bank said that was excessive.

For many the crash is a buying opportunity because they expect prices to recover quickly when the U.S. market returns fully after the holiday and volumes return to normal. The longer-term outlook remains robust.

“This is a huge overreaction in terms of the market,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “This is the market pricing in the worst possible scenarios.”

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Meta shares sink after it reveals spending plans – BBC.com

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Shares in US tech giant Meta have sunk in US after-hours trading despite better-than-expected earnings.

The Facebook and Instagram owner said expenses would be higher this year as it spends heavily on artificial intelligence (AI).

Its shares fell more than 15% after it said it expected to spend billions of dollars more than it had previously predicted in 2024.

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Meta has been updating its ad-buying products with AI tools to boost earnings growth.

It has also been introducing more AI features on its social media platforms such as chat assistants.

The firm said it now expected to spend between $35bn and $40bn, (£28bn-32bn) in 2024, up from an earlier prediction of $30-$37bn.

Its shares fell despite it beating expectations on its earnings.

First quarter revenue rose 27% to $36.46bn, while analysts had expected earnings of $36.16bn.

Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said its spending plans were “aggressive”.

She said Meta’s “substantial investment” in AI has helped it get people to spend time on its platforms, so advertisers are willing to spend more money “in a time when digital advertising uncertainty remains rife”.

More than 50 countries are due to have elections this year, she said, “which hugely increases uncertainty” and can spook advertisers.

She added that Meta’s “fortunes are probably also being bolstered by TikTok’s uncertain future in the US”.

Meta’s rival has said it will fight an “unconstitutional” law that could result in TikTok being sold or banned in the US.

President Biden has signed into law a bill which gives the social media platform’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, nine months to sell off the app or it will be blocked in the US.

Ms Lund-Yates said that “looking further ahead, the biggest risk [for Meta] remains regulatory”.

Last year, Meta was fined €1.2bn (£1bn) by Ireland’s data authorities for mishandling people’s data when transferring it between Europe and the US.

And in February of this year, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg faced blistering criticism from US lawmakers and was pushed to apologise to families of victims of child sexual exploitation.

Ms Lund-Yates added that the firm has “more than enough resources to throw at legal challenges, but that doesn’t rule out the risks of ups and downs in market sentiment”.

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Oil Firms Doubtful Trans Mountain Pipeline Will Start Full Service by May 1st

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Pipeline

Oil companies planning to ship crude on the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada are concerned that the project may not begin full service on May 1 but they would be nevertheless obligated to pay tolls from that date.

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In a letter to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Suncor Energy and other shippers including BP and Marathon Petroleum have expressed doubts that Trans Mountain will start full service on May 1, as previously communicated, Reuters reports.

Trans Mountain Corporation, the government-owned entity that completed the pipeline construction, told Reuters in an email that line fill on the expanded pipeline would be completed in early May.

After a series of delays, cost overruns, and legal challenges, the expanded Trans Mountain oil pipeline will open for business on May 1, the company said early this month.

“The Commencement Date for commercial operation of the expanded system will be May 1, 2024. Trans Mountain anticipates providing service for all contracted volumes in the month of May,” Trans Mountain Corporation said in early April.

The expanded pipeline will triple the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast.  

The Federal Government of Canada bought the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) from Kinder Morgan back in 2018, together with related pipeline and terminal assets. That cost the federal government $3.3 billion (C$4.5 billion) at the time. Since then, the costs for the expansion of the pipeline have quadrupled to nearly $23 billion (C$30.9 billion).

The expansion project has faced continuous delays over the years. In one of the latest roadblocks in December, the Canadian regulator denied a variance request from the project developer to move a small section of the pipeline due to challenging drilling conditions.

The company asked the regulator to reconsider its decision, and received on January 12 a conditional approval, avoiding what could have been another two-year delay to start-up.

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Tesla profits cut in half as demand falls

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Tesla profits slump by more than a half

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Tesla has announced its profits fell sharply in the first three months of the year to $1.13bn (£910m), compared with $2.51bn in 2023.

It caps a difficult period for the electric vehicle (EV) maker, which – faced with falling sales – has announced thousands of job cuts.

Boss Elon Musk remains bullish about its prospects, telling investors the launch of new models would be brought forward.

Its share price has risen but analysts say it continues to face significant challenges, including from lower-cost rivals.

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The company has suffered from falling demand and competition from cheaper Chinese imports which has led its stock price to collapse by 43% over 2024.

Figures for the first quarter of 2024 revealed revenues of $21.3bn, down on analysts’ predictions of just over $22bn.

But the decision by Tesla to bring forward the launch of new models from the second half of 2025 boosted its shares by nearly 12.5% in after-hours trading.

It did not reveal pricing details for the new vehicles.

However Mr Musk made clear he also grander ambitions, touting Tesla’s AI credentials and plans for self-driving vehicles – even going as far as to say considering it to be just a car company was the “wrong framework.”

“If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy I think they should not be an investor,” he said.

Such sentiments have been questioned by analysts though, with Deutsche Bank saying driverless cars face “technological, regulatory and operational challenges.”

Some investors have called for the company to instead focus on releasing a lower price, mass-market EV.

However, Tesla has already been on a charm offensive, trying to win over new customers by dropping its prices in a series of markets in the face of falling sales.

It also said its situation was not unique.

“Global EV sales continue to be under pressure as many carmakers prioritize hybrids over EVs,” it said.

Despite plans to bring forward new models originally planned for next year the firm is cutting its workforce.

Tesla said it would lose 3,332 jobs in California and 2,688 positions in Texas, starting mid-June.

The cuts in Texas represent 12% of Tesla’s total workforce of almost 23,000 in the area where its gigafactory and headquarters are located.

However, Mr Musk sought to downplay the move.

“Tesla has now created over 30,000 manufacturing jobs in California!” he said in a post on his social media platform X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday.

Another 285 jobs will be lost in New York.

Tesla’s total workforce stood at more than 140,000 late last year, up from around 100,000 at the end of 2021, according to the company’s filings with US regulators.

Musk’s salary

The car firm is also facing other issues, with a struggle over Mr Musk’s compensation still raging on.

On Wednesday, Tesla asked shareholders to vote for a proposal to accept Mr Musk’s compensation package – once valued at $56bn – which had been rejected by a Delaware judge.

The judge found Tesla’s directors had breached their fiduciary duty to the firm by awarding Mr Musk the pay-out.

Due to the fall in Tesla’s stock value, the compensation package is now estimated to be around $10bn less – but still greater than the GDP of many countries.

In addition, Tesla wants its shareholders to agree to the firm being moved from Delaware to Texas – which Mr Musk called for after the judge rejected his payday.

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