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Investment
Reactions To Rising Inflation Have Begun – Investment Drama Ahead – Forbes
Inflation reality is biting, and consumers are noticing. Such an environment has been absent for years, so it’s time for investors to shift gears – and act.
Inflation uptrends are unlike all other economic and market growth cycles. The negative results produce reactionary business, financial, government and consumer behavior that fosters the uptrend.
Now that rising inflation is the topic of the day, anticipatory and reactionary actions already are visible:
Businesses get green light to raise prices –
“Inflation Helps Boost Profit Margins“
“Companies seize rare opportunity to increase prices and outrun their own rising costs.”
The Wall Street Journal (November 15, page A-1)
Consumers begin to buy ahead of possible price rises –
“Shoppers Increase Spending, Despite Inflation“
“Retail sales rose by 1.7% in October as consumers bucked the pandemic, higher prices.”
The Wall Street Journal (November 17, page A-1)
Financial management begins to make aggressive shifts –
“CalPERS To Borrow, Add Risk To Meet Targets” [Higher inflation means higher liabilities, requiring higher returns]
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.”
The Wall Street Journal (November 16, page B-1)
Government seeks to exhibit active, consumer-friendly role –
“President Calls for Inquiry into Price of Gas“
“President Biden called on the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether oil-and-gas companies are participating in illegal conduct aimed at keeping gasoline prices high, in the latest effort by the White House to respond to public concerns about costs for everything from fuel to groceries.”
The Wall Street Journal (November 18, page A-1)
Federal Reserve attempts to find its way as “temporary” and “transitory” reassurances fail –
“Fed officials express resolve to address inflation risks“
“Federal Reserve officials in discussions earlier this month said the central bank ‘would not hesitate’ to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to the economy.”
Associated Press (November 25)
Analysts become outspoken about the inflation reality –
“The Fed Is Running Out of Excuses on Inflation”
“Every time the Federal Reserve comes up with an excuse for raging inflation and why it won’t last, the data knock it back down.
“Inflation hasn’t turned out to be temporary and has accelerated, reaching the highest in a single month since January 1990. It is high even when measured against pre-pandemic prices, so this isn’t merely catch-up for the deflation of last spring. It is no longer merely about a narrow set of Covid-disrupted supply chains, or demand for used cars and other popular items. Even the get-out-of-jail-free card of FAIT, the Fed’s year-old policy of flexible average inflation targeting, is wearing thin.
“The only explanation remaining is that inflation will still be transitory–not as temporary as hoped, but that it will go away on its own. Investors still buy the story, but the risk is rising that the Fed has to act much more aggressively.”
James Mackintosh in The Wall Street Journal (November 15, page B-1)
The bottom line: Wall Street is preparing for a dramatic investment shakeup
Wall Street is scanning the horizon for signs of rising inflation hitting where it will hurt worst: Fixed income securities. Wall Streeters know that bond holders will suffer mightily when the bond “vigilantes” return to demand full return for risk.
Long-term bond yields used to move independently from the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate management. As the Fed begins the needed shift back to market-determined short-term rates, the long-term bond market will regain that independence. After all, a ten-year bond yielding a negative real yield now is assured of being a real loser in a rising inflationary period.
Investment
Taxes should not wag the tail of the investment dog, but that’s what Trudeau wants
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Kim Moody: Ottawa is encouraging people to crystallize their gains and pay tax. That’s a hell of a fiscal plan
The Canadian federal budget has been out for a week, which is plenty of time to absorb just how terrible it is.
The problems start with weak fiscal policy, excessive spending and growing public-debt charges estimated to be $54.1 billion for the upcoming year. That is more than $1 billion per week that Canadians are paying for things that have no societal benefit.
Why? Well, for the CEI, virtually every entrepreneurial industry (except technology) is not eligible. If you happen to be in an industry that qualifies, the $2-million exemption comes with a long, stringent list of criteria (which will be very difficult for most entrepreneurs to qualify for) and it is phased in over a 10-year period of $200,000 per year.
For transfers to EOTs, an entrepreneur must give up complete legal and factual control to be eligible for the $10-million exemption, even though the EOT will likely pay the entrepreneur out of future profits. The commercial risk associated with such a transfer is likely too great for most entrepreneurs to accept.
Capital gains tax hike
But the budget’s highlight proposal was the capital gains inclusion rate increase to 66.7 per cent from 50 per cent for dispositions effective after June 24, 2024. The proposal includes a 50 per cent inclusion rate on the first $250,000 of annual capital gains for individuals, but not for corporations and trusts. Oh, those evil corporations and trusts.
Some economists have come out in strong favour of the proposal, mainly because of equity arguments (a buck is a buck), but such arguments ignore the real world of investing where investors look at overall risk, liquidity and the time value of money.
If capital gains are taxed at a rate approaching wage taxation rates, why would entrepreneurs and investors want to risk their capital when such investments might be illiquid for a long period of time and be highly risky?
They will seek greener pastures for their investment dollars and they already are. I’ve been fielding a tremendous number of questions from investors over the past week and I’d invite those academics and economists who support the increased inclusion rate to come live in my shoes for a day to see how the theoretical world of equity and behaviour collide. It’s not good and it certainly does nothing to help Canada’s obvious productivity challenges.
The government messaging around this tax proposal has many people upset, including me. Specifically, it is the following paragraph in the budget documents that many supporters are parroting that is upsetting:
“Next year, 28.5 million Canadians are not expected to have any capital gains income, and 3 million are expected to earn capital gains below the $250,000 annual threshold. Only 0.13 per cent of Canadians with an average income of $1.4 million are expected to pay more personal income tax on their capital gains in any given year. As a result of this, for 99.87 per cent of Canadians, personal income taxes on capital gains will not increase.” (This is supposedly about 40,000 taxpayers.)
Bluntly, this is garbage. It outright ignores several facts.
Furthermore, public corporations that have capital gains will pay tax at a higher inclusion rate and this results in higher corporate tax, which means decreased amounts are available to be paid out as dividends to individual shareholders (including those held by individuals’ pensions).
The budget documents simply measured the number of corporations that reported capital gains in recent years and said it is 12.6 per cent of all corporations. That measurement is shallow and not the whole story, as described above.
Tax hit for cottages
There are also millions of Canadians who hold a second real estate property, either a cottage-type and/or rental property. Those properties will eventually be sold, with the probability that the gain will exceed the $250,000 threshold.
And people who become non-residents of Canada — and that is increasing rapidly — have deemed dispositions of their assets (with some exceptions). They will face the distinct possibility that such gains will be more than $250,000.
The politics around the capital gains inclusion rate increase are pretty obvious. The government is planning for Canadian taxpayers to crystallize their inherent gains prior to the implementation date, especially corporations that will not have a $250,000 annual lower inclusion rate. For the current year, the government is projecting a $4.9-billion tax take. But next year, it dramatically drops to an estimated $1.3 billion.
This is a ridiculous way to shield the government’s tremendous spending and try to make them look like they are holding the line on their out-of-control deficits. The government is encouraging people to crystallize their gains and pay tax. That’s a hell of a fiscal plan.
I hope the government has some second sober thoughts about the capital gains proposal, but I’m not holding my breath.
Investment
Everton search for investment to complete 777 deal – BBC.com
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2 hours ago
Everton are searching for third-party investment in order to push through a protracted takeover by 777 Partners.
The Miami-based firm agreed a deal to buy the Toffees from majority owner Farhad Moshiri in September, but are yet to gain approval from the Premier League.
On Monday, Bloomberg reported the club’s main financial adviser Deloitte has been seeking fresh funding from sports-focused investors and lenders to get 777’s deal over the line.
BBC Sport has been told this is “standard practice contingency planning” and the process may identify other potential lenders to 777.
Sources close to British-Iranian businessman Moshiri have told BBC Sport they remain “working on completing the deal with 777”.
It is understood there are no other parties waiting in the wings to takeover should the takeover fall through and the focus is fully on 777.
The Americans have so far loaned £180m to Everton for day-to-day operational costs, which will be turned into equity once the deal is completed, but repaying money owed to MSP Sports Capital, whose deal collapsed in August, remains a stumbling block.
777 says it can stump up the £158m that is owed to MSP Sports Capital and once that is settled, it is felt the deal should be completed soon after.
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Investment
Warren Buffett Predicts 'Bad Ending' for Bitcoin — Is It a Doomed Investment? – Yahoo Finance
Currently sitting in sixth on Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List, Berkshire Hathaway co-founder, chairman and CEO Warren Buffett is a first-rate example of an investor who stuck to his core financial beliefs early in life to become not only a success but a once-in-a-lifetime inspiration to those who followed in his footsteps.
One of the most trusted investors for decades, the 93-year-old Buffett isn’t shy to pontificate on his investment philosophy, which is centered around value investing, buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value and holding them for the long term.
Read Next: Warren Buffett: 6 Best Pieces of Money Advice for the Middle Class
Find Out: 5 Genius Things All Wealthy People Do With Their Money
He’s also quite vocal on investments he deems worthless. And one of those is Bitcoin.
Buffett’s Take on Bitcoin
Over the past decade, it’s been clear that the crypto craze isn’t something Buffett wants any part of. He described Bitcoin as “probably rat poison squared” back in 2018.
“In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending,” Buffett said in 2018. And his stance hasn’t wavered since. According to Benzinga, Buffett believes that cryptocurrencies aren’t a viable or valuable investment.
“Now if you told me you own all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it because what would I do with it? I’d have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn’t going to do anything,” Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting in 2022.
Although the Oracle of Omaha has his misgivings about the unpredictable investment, does that mean crypto is doomed as an investment? Not necessarily.
For You: 10 Valuable Stocks That Could Be the Next Apple or Amazon
Is Buffett Wrong About Bitcoin?
Bitcoin bulls argue that while it’s not government-issued, cryptocurrency is as fungible, divisible, secure and portable as fiat currency and gold. Because they occupy a digital space, cryptocurrencies are decentralized, scarce and durable. They can last as long as they can be stored.
Crypto boosters continue to predict massive growth in the coin’s value. Earlier this year, SkyBridge Capital founder and former White House director of communications Anthony Scaramucci told reporters that Bitcoin could exceed $170,000 by mid-2025, and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin will hit $1.48 million by 2030, according to Fortune.
“They really don’t understand the concept and the whole history of money,” Scaramucci said of crypto critics like Buffett on a recent episode of Jason Raznick’s “The Raz Report.” Because we place a value on “traditional” currency, it is essentially worthless compared with the transparent and trustworthy digital Bitcoin, Scaramucci said.
Currently trading around the $66,000 mark, Bitcoin is up nearly 50% in 2024. This means it’s massively outperforming most indexes this year, including the S&P 500, which is up about 6% in 2024.
Although Berkshire Hathaway has invested heavily in Bitcoin-related Brazilian fintech company Nu Holdings, which has its own cryptocurrency called Nucoin, it’s possible Buffett will never come around fully to crypto, despite its recent surge in value. It’s contrary to the reliable investment strategy that has served him very well for decades.
“The urge to participate in something where it looks like easy money is a human instinct which has been unleashed,” Buffett said. “People love the idea of getting rich quick, and I don’t blame them … It’s so human, and once unleashed you can’t put it back in the bottle.”
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Warren Buffett Predicts ‘Bad Ending’ for Bitcoin — Is It a Doomed Investment?
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