Welcome to a new year, where there will be plenty of politics to chew over from around the world. To kick things off, here are 12 things to watch in 2022 — for now at least — when it comes to political risk.
BORDER ALERT: Tensions are high on the Ukrainian border as Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains an elevated troop presence and demands that NATO reduce its footprint in the region. As the muddy ground freezes, the prospect of a Russian invasion may rise. Three separate sets of talks start from Sunday to try and de-escalate the situation.
Key Reading
MIDTERM MOMENT: U.S. President Joe Biden faces a referendum on his performance with elections in November for the House and more than half of the seats in the Senate. His popularity has been on a downswing as he battles to get his overarching economic plans through Congress. Does this open the door for Republicans and even potentially Donald Trump in 2024?
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RISING CHINA: President Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term at a leadership meeting this year, further cementing his hold on the world’s second biggest economy. Xi has been cracking down in both China and Hong Kong, while pushing his mantra of “common prosperity,” reining in the country’s big companies and billionaires. What does this all mean for still-strained U.S. ties, and for Taiwan, an island democracy that Beijing considers its territory?
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FAIR SHOT: The pandemic is still with us, though omicron thankfully appears a milder (if much more contagious) version of Covid-19. Governments remain challenged by populations tired of restrictions but still vulnerable to the virus. Even as Israel starts to roll out a fourth inoculation, many poorer countries are still struggling to get people double vaccinated. Until the world as a whole has greater protection, variants will keep coming.
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BALLOT BOX: It’s not just the U.S. that has elections this year. Watch for votes in countries including France (where President Emmanuel Macron faces multiple challengers from the center and far-right), Brazil (where President Jair Bolsonaro is battling falling popularity), Hungary (where Viktor Orban is hoping to cement his “illiberal democracy”) and Australia (Scott Morrison is hoping that walling Australia off during the pandemic will play well at home).
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COMING DUE: Even as the pandemic continues, countries face tough decisions on when, and how, to wind down Covid-19 aid for businesses and workers. As debt piles up, governments will face pressure to start turning off the spigot and potentially raise taxes. At the same time, some of them are touting lofty green goals that will require both spending and structural economic change. Can they manage it all?
A climate change protest outside the White House in October.
Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
SELF-SUFFICIENCY: 2021 saw countries push for greater self-reliance when it came to things like semiconductors. Broad supply bottlenecks may persist, accelerating plans to build domestic industry and shield national champions from overseas buyers, leading to rising protectionism. It’s not just chips that are at stake: There are renewed questions about energy dependence, for example.
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PARTIAL THAW: Things have improved between Saudi Arabia and other Middle East powers, including Israel, Qatar and the U.A.E., opening the door to more trade and investment. Will it last? Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pushing change both at home and abroad, but that papers over many years of mistrust and conflict. Then there’s the wildcard of Iran, which is bogged down in talks to renew its 2015 nuclear accord with a harder-line administration in power.
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PRESSURE COOKER: There are specific things to watch with Turkey that could spill into the broader arena. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still dabbling in unorthodox monetary policies even as he takes steps to try and shore up the lira, the world’s worst-performing emerging market currency in 2021. With elections on the horizon, Erdogan needs to bolster support at home. That could make him more erratic offshore, including in the Mediterranean, with NATO and with Russia.
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NEW ERA: Olaf Scholz has taken over as chancellor in Germany after 16 years of Angela Merkel’s rule. That will raise questions not just about domestic policies and the economy but broader European stability without Merkel at the tiller. Does this open the door to Macron? To European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen? Can they manage talks around pandemic aid for Europe, tensions in Europe’s east, find a way to deal with China and keep leaders like Erdogan in check?
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TRICKY WATERS: Countries are waking up to the fact that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. There are upsides to crypto but also murky downsides, especially when it comes to money laundering, trafficking and terrorism funding. As everyone from El Salvador to major football clubs gets in on the action, governments will find themselves grappling with the question of how, or whether, to regulate.
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Technicians install ethernet and power cables for new mining rigs at the Minto cryptocurrency mining center in Nadvoitsy, Russia, on Dec. 17.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
TIME BOMB: With the focus in 2021 on countries like China and Russia, things were oddly quiet in North Korea. Kim Jong Un restrained himself to short-range missile tests and some propaganda bursts against America. He’s busy dealing with food shortages at home, but how long will he stay out of the limelight he seemingly adores? Is this the year Pyongyang muscles its way back onto the global stage for attention?
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A protest against Covid-19 restrictions in Brussels on Dec. 19.
Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg
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Global Headlines
Covid surge | A record 10 million people were diagnosed with Covid-19 in the seven days through yesterday, almost double the previous high. At the same time, as omicron swamps many parts of the globe, weekly deaths continued to drop, falling to the lowest level in more than a year.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he tested positive and plans to quarantine at home for five days.
China reported 101 new cases, of which 90 were in Xi’an, where some residents complained on social media about a lack of access to food and censorship on the matter.
Closing doors | A third Hong Kong news outlet announced it would shut as the city installed a legislature vetted for loyalty to the Communist Party, a stark illustration of Beijing’s success in silencing the local opposition. Citizen News briefed reporters on its decision to close at midnight at the same time as dozens of pro-establishment lawmakers were sworn-in one by one in front of the red and gold Chinese national flag.
Coming Due
Chinese developers face mounting bond maturities in 2022
Sources: Bloomberg
Note: Yuan bond amounts converted into dollars based on Dec. 31 rate
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China’s property developers have rising bills to pay in January and shrinking options to raise funds. The industry will need to find at least $197 billion to cover maturing bonds, coupons, trust products and deferred wages to millions of migrant workers, according to Bloomberg calculations and analyst estimates. Beijing has urged builders to meet payrolls to avoid the risk of social unrest.
Deepening crisis | Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned yesterday, saying the failure of power sharing between the military and civilians has put the North African country in jeopardy of sliding into chaos. His decision leaves the transitional government almost entirely in the hands of the armed forces amid deadly protests against October’s coup.
Best of Bloomberg Opinion
Another push | U.S. Democrats begin the year needing to re-imagine their $2 trillion tax, climate and spending package if they are to revive Biden’s economic agenda. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin remains a major roadblock, and the bill will need to be slimmed down to have any chance of passing before midterm election campaigns begin.
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News to Note
Bolsonaro was admitted to a hospital in Sao Paulo after spending his holidays at a beach.
Biden reaffirmed U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty yesterday in a call with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
South Korea’s Moon Jae-in vowed to make another push for peace with North Korea in his final months as president, despite signs Kim has little interest in reciprocating.
Twitter has permanently banned the personal account of Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene for repeated violations of its prohibition against spreading misinformation about Covid-19.
Talks to restart the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers resume today with diplomats contemplating outcomes that fall short of fully reviving the accord.
Richard Leakey, a Kenyan conservationist and paleontologist whose discoveries of fossils including “Turkana Boy” helped transform views on human evolution and its roots in Africa, has died. He was 77.
Thanks to the 33 readers who answered our quiz on Dec. 17 and congratulations to Rebecca Rich, who was the first to name South Africa as the nation whose leader tested positive for Covid-19 that week.
And finally … The pre-Christmas extradition of a Russian tech tycoon has delivered the highest-level Kremlin insider into U.S. custody in recent memory. Vladislav Klyushin, a medal of honor recipient who had access to sensitive intelligence documents, could potentially provide American law enforcement officials with their closest view yet of Russia’s efforts to manipulate the 2016 U.S. election.
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Klyushin’s Russian Defense Ministry ID.
Source: Bloomberg
— With assistance by Alan Crawford, and Michael Winfrey
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
