adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Health

Ontario could run out of ICU beds, ventilators in 37 days even if COVID-19 rates cut in half: study – Yahoo News Canada

Published

 on


A new study by some of Ontario’s leading medical researchers paints an alarming picture of the strain on the health-care system as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, suggesting the province will run out of intensive-care beds and ventilators in just 37 days, even if it manages to cut current infection rates in half. 

The study, by a team from the University of Toronto, University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital, among other institutions, warns of “significant strain” on crucial health-care resources in the weeks ahead, calling for measures to “rapidly identify and create opportunities for additional capacity to care for critically ill patients.”

As of Thursday, Ontario has 258 confirmed cases. Of those, five are considered resolved, with the virus linked to two deaths.

Over the past eight days, since March 12, the daily increase in new COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario has averaged 26 per cent. Since Monday, the rate of increase has slowed, but has still averaged 15.6 per cent daily over the past four days.

“Our simulation using a ‘conservative scenario’ of a daily 7.5 per cent increase of cases predicts that Ontario’s ICU bed and ventilator resources will be depleted in approximately 37 days,” says the report published Wednesday evening.

“Ward beds will be full and unable to accommodate new patients in approximately seven weeks.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Goal to help leaders&nbsp;make informed decisions” data-reactid=”18″>Goal to help leaders make informed decisions

It’s a startling conclusion, but one that Beate Sander, lead study author and scientist at the University Health Network, says isn’t meant to spark panic.

Instead, she says, the goal is to put the pressures on the healthcare system into context so that medical and political leaders can make informed decisions.

The study authors acknowledge their modelling is based on a number of key assumptions:

  • They begin with a starting point of 250 cases, which Ontario hit Thursday. 
  • They assume that 19 per cent of cases will require hospitalization.
  • They assume that 26 per cent of hospitalized patients will require an ICU bed.   
  • They assume an average ICU stay will be eight days long.

With those assumptions in mind, they predict the following outcomes:

  • If Ontario can free up 25 per cent of ICU beds for COVID-19 patients, resources will be depleted in 37 days.
  • If 75 per cent of ICU beds can be allocated to COVID-19 patients, resources can last 52 days.
  • If, on top of 75 percent of ICU beds, Ontario can make available some 2,000 more beds and 600 additional ventilators, resources can last 60 days.

The models don’t account for the impact of the recent border restrictions or school closures — measures Sander hopes will slow the rate of infection and ease the pressure on Ontario’s already strained health-care system.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Social-distancing likely needed for 2 months or more” data-reactid=”33″>Social-distancing likely needed for 2 months or more

“I think if we are really diligent with all the public-health measures, I think we can do better… What we call the ‘conservative scenario’ might be the likely scenario — but I’m hoping for something even less severe.”

We need to be prepared for exactly the kind of predictions that this group is suggesting. – Dr. Anand Kumar , Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre

So far, the daily growth rate has fallen below the 7.5 per cent mark only once since March 10. That was on Tuesday, when only 12 new positive cases were confirmed, an increase of 6.8 per cent from the previous day.

Flattening the curve of infection and increasing the province’s access to beds and ventilators could extend the life of the system to two months, says Sander. But expect to remain in your home for at least another four weeks, she adds.

“All my epidemiologist colleagues will tell you we probably need to have it in place for much longer …  For sure, more than four weeks and probably more than two months,” Sander said.

Radio-Canada

View photos

Radio-Canada

Health Minister Christine Elliott insisted Ontario is “building capacity,” when asked about the study at a news conference Thursday.

“We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen but we do know that the pressures on our health-care system are going to increase,” Elliott said.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Province working to increase capacity” data-reactid=”66″>Province working to increase capacity

Elliott said the province is working to increase the number of available beds, and recently increased its in-house supply of ventilators by 300. The province is also in talks with auto-parts manufacturers about possibly retooling their equipment to help produce ventilators.

“Were also looking at other alternative measures where we can perhaps place some people who are at an alternate level of care that are currently in our hospitals to a setting that is going to be safe for them and appropriate for them,” Elliott added.

CBCCBC

View photos

Dr. Anand Kumar, a critical-care doctor at Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre, conducted similar modelling during Canada’s H1N1 outbreak of 2009 with a group of medical professionals with the Critical Care – Infectious Diseases Network, Canada.

That virus had a similar rate of infectious spread and risk of death to COVID-19, he told CBC News. 

But there was one key difference. With H1N1, an anti-viral was available almost immediately and a vaccine was ready in about five months.

Without them, he says, the modelling looked very much like Sander’s. 

“I think the results are well within the realm of possibility,” Kumar said of the COVID-19 study.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="‘A really risky situation’” data-reactid=”94″>‘A really risky situation’

Kumar pointed out in a recent newspaper op-ed that Canada’s hospitals typically operate at 90-to-95 per cent capacity and were stretched with this year’s flu season alone. 

“This is a really risky situation and we need to be prepared for exactly the kind of predictions that this group is suggesting,” he said, calling for a more coordinated approach to social distancing practices across the country. 

The researchers behind the COVID-19 study add their model doesn’t take into consideration what happens if Ontario can boost its resources. If the province’s ventilator stockpile grows, the modelling could become much more promising.

CBCCBC

View photos

One other factor they don’t account for has to do with human resources. The study assumes all beds are fully staffed. Nurses, doctors and medical staff becoming ill could throw the projections out the window.

“A ventilator alone isn’t that helpful. So there needs to be ventilator and there needs to be an ICU bed and there needs to be a qualified staff … Just the technology alone, it’s not going to do it,” Sander pointed out. 

Asked about the study Wednesday afternoon, Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe suggested treating the results with caution.

“At the end of the day they are modelling, and that may or may not reflect what happens,” she said.

The study authors advise caution too, saying their model is preliminary and evolving, with new data every hour that could change the odds. And with much of Ontario doing its part to self-isolate, the goal is that those odds change for the better.

Asked if Ontario can bring the daily growth rate of new cases below 7.5 per cent, the province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams responded, “I’d like to think we can.”

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Health

Health Canada approves updated Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Health Canada has authorized Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine that protects against currently circulating variants of the virus.

The mRNA vaccine, called Spikevax, has been reformulated to target the KP.2 subvariant of Omicron.

It will replace the previous version of the vaccine that was released a year ago, which targeted the XBB.1.5 subvariant of Omicron.

Health Canada recently asked provinces and territories to get rid of their older COVID-19 vaccines to ensure the most current vaccine will be used during this fall’s respiratory virus season.

Health Canada is also reviewing two other updated COVID-19 vaccines but has not yet authorized them.

They are Pfizer’s Comirnaty, which is also an mRNA vaccine, as well as Novavax’s protein-based vaccine.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Health

These people say they got listeria after drinking recalled plant-based milks

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Sanniah Jabeen holds a sonogram of the unborn baby she lost after contracting listeria last December. Beneath, it says “love at first sight.”

Jabeen says she believes she and her baby were poisoned by a listeria outbreak linked to some plant-based milks and wants answers. An investigation continues into the recall declared July 8 of several Silk and Great Value plant-based beverages.

“I don’t even have the words. I’m still processing that,” Jabeen says of her loss. She was 18 weeks pregnant when she went into preterm labour.

The first infection linked to the recall was traced back to August 2023. One year later on Aug. 12, 2024, the Public Health Agency of Canada said three people had died and 20 were infected.

The number of cases is likely much higher, says Lawrence Goodridge, Canada Research Chair in foodborne pathogen dynamics at the University of Guelph: “For every person known, generally speaking, there’s typically 20 to 25 or maybe 30 people that are unknown.”

The case count has remained unchanged over the last month, but the Public Health Agency of Canada says it won’t declare the outbreak over until early October because of listeria’s 70-day incubation period and the reporting delays that accompany it.

Danone Canada’s head of communications said in an email Wednesday that the company is still investigating the “root cause” of the outbreak, which has been linked to a production line at a Pickering, Ont., packaging facility.

Pregnant people, adults over 60, and those with weakened immune systems are most at risk of becoming sick with severe listeriosis. If the infection spreads to an unborn baby, Health Canada says it can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, premature birth or life-threatening illness in a newborn.

The Canadian Press spoke to 10 people, from the parents of a toddler to an 89-year-old senior, who say they became sick with listeria after drinking from cartons of plant-based milk stamped with the recalled product code. Here’s a look at some of their experiences.

Sanniah Jabeen, 32, Toronto

Jabeen says she regularly drank Silk oat and almond milk in smoothies while pregnant, and began vomiting seven times a day and shivering at night in December 2023. She had “the worst headache of (her) life” when she went to the emergency room on Dec. 15.

“I just wasn’t functioning like a normal human being,” Jabeen says.

Told she was dehydrated, Jabeen was given fluids and a blood test and sent home. Four days later, she returned to hospital.

“They told me that since you’re 18 weeks, there’s nothing you can do to save your baby,” says Jabeen, who moved to Toronto from Pakistan five years ago.

Jabeen later learned she had listeriosis and an autopsy revealed her baby was infected, too.

“It broke my heart to read that report because I was just imagining my baby drinking poisoned amniotic fluid inside of me. The womb is a place where your baby is supposed to be the safest,” Jabeen said.

Jabeen’s case is likely not included in PHAC’s count. Jabeen says she was called by Health Canada and asked what dairy and fresh produce she ate – foods more commonly associated with listeria – but not asked about plant-based beverages.

She’s pregnant again, and is due in several months. At first, she was scared to eat, not knowing what caused the infection during her last pregnancy.

“Ever since I learned about the almond, oat milk situation, I’ve been feeling a bit better knowing that it wasn’t something that I did. It was something else that caused it. It wasn’t my fault,” Jabeen said.

She’s since joined a proposed class action lawsuit launched by LPC Avocates against the manufacturers and sellers of Silk and Great Value plant-based beverages. The lawsuit has not yet been certified by a judge.

Natalie Grant and her seven year-old daughter, Bowmanville, Ont.

Natalie Grant says she was in a hospital waiting room when she saw a television news report about the recall. She wondered if the dark chocolate almond milk her daughter drank daily was contaminated.

She had brought the girl to hospital because she was vomiting every half hour, constantly on the toilet with diarrhea, and had severe pain in her abdomen.

“I’m definitely thinking that this is a pretty solid chance that she’s got listeria at this point because I knew she had all the symptoms,” Grant says of seeing the news report.

Once her daughter could hold fluids, they went home and Grant cross-checked the recalled product code – 7825 – with the one on her carton. They matched.

“I called the emerg and I said I’m pretty confident she’s been exposed,” Grant said. She was told to return to the hospital if her daughter’s symptoms worsened. An hour and a half later, her fever spiked, the vomiting returned, her face flushed and her energy plummeted.

Grant says they were sent to a hospital in Ajax, Ont. and stayed two weeks while her daughter received antibiotics four times a day until she was discharged July 23.

“Knowing that my little one was just so affected and how it affected us as a family alone, there’s a bitterness left behind,” Grant said. She’s also joined the proposed class action.

Thelma Feldman, 89, Toronto

Thelma Feldman says she regularly taught yoga to friends in her condo building before getting sickened by listeria on July 2. Now, she has a walker and her body aches. She has headaches and digestive problems.

“I’m kind of depressed,” she says.

“It’s caused me a lot of physical and emotional pain.”

Much of the early days of her illness are a blur. She knows she boarded an ambulance with profuse diarrhea on July 2 and spent five days at North York General Hospital. Afterwards, she remembers Health Canada officials entering her apartment and removing Silk almond milk from her fridge, and volunteers from a community organization giving her sponge baths.

“At my age, 89, I’m not a kid anymore and healing takes longer,” Feldman says.

“I don’t even feel like being with people. I just sit at home.”

Jasmine Jiles and three-year-old Max, Kahnawake Mohawk Territory, Que.

Jasmine Jiles says her three-year-old son Max came down with flu-like symptoms and cradled his ears in what she interpreted as a sign of pain, like the one pounding in her own head, around early July.

When Jiles heard about the recall soon after, she called Danone Canada, the plant-based milk manufacturer, to find out if their Silk coconut milk was in the contaminated batch. It was, she says.

“My son is very small, he’s very young, so I asked what we do in terms of overall monitoring and she said someone from the company would get in touch within 24 to 48 hours,” Jiles says from a First Nations reserve near Montreal.

“I never got a call back. I never got an email”

At home, her son’s fever broke after three days, but gas pains stuck with him, she says. It took a couple weeks for him to get back to normal.

“In hindsight, I should have taken him (to the hospital) but we just tried to see if we could nurse him at home because wait times are pretty extreme,” Jiles says, “and I don’t have child care at the moment.”

Joseph Desmond, 50, Sydney, N.S.

Joseph Desmond says he suffered a seizure and fell off his sofa on July 9. He went to the emergency room, where they ran an electroencephalogram (EEG) test, and then returned home. Within hours, he had a second seizure and went back to hospital.

His third seizure happened the next morning while walking to the nurse’s station.

In severe cases of listeriosis, bacteria can spread to the central nervous system and cause seizures, according to Health Canada.

“The last two months have really been a nightmare,” says Desmond, who has joined the proposed lawsuit.

When he returned home from the hospital, his daughter took a carton of Silk dark chocolate almond milk out of the fridge and asked if he had heard about the recall. By that point, Desmond says he was on his second two-litre carton after finishing the first in June.

“It was pretty scary. Terrifying. I honestly thought I was going to die.”

Cheryl McCombe, 63, Haliburton, Ont.

The morning after suffering a second episode of vomiting, feverish sweats and diarrhea in the middle of the night in early July, Cheryl McCombe scrolled through the news on her phone and came across the recall.

A few years earlier, McCombe says she started drinking plant-based milks because it seemed like a healthier choice to splash in her morning coffee. On June 30, she bought two cartons of Silk cashew almond milk.

“It was on the (recall) list. I thought, ‘Oh my God, I got listeria,’” McCombe says. She called her doctor’s office and visited an urgent care clinic hoping to get tested and confirm her suspicion, but she says, “I was basically shut down at the door.”

Public Health Ontario does not recommend listeria testing for infected individuals with mild symptoms unless they are at risk of developing severe illness, such as people who are immunocompromised, elderly, pregnant or newborn.

“No wonder they couldn’t connect the dots,” she adds, referencing that it took close to a year for public health officials to find the source of the outbreak.

“I am a woman in my 60s and sometimes these signs are of, you know, when you’re vomiting and things like that, it can be a sign in women of a bigger issue,” McCombe says. She was seeking confirmation that wasn’t the case.

Disappointed, with her stomach still feeling off, she says she decided to boost her gut health with probiotics. After a couple weeks she started to feel like herself.

But since then, McCombe says, “I’m back on Kawartha Dairy cream in my coffee.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

Source link

Continue Reading

Health

B.C. mayors seek ‘immediate action’ from federal government on mental health crisis

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Mayors and other leaders from several British Columbia communities say the provincial and federal governments need to take “immediate action” to tackle mental health and public safety issues that have reached crisis levels.

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim says it’s become “abundantly clear” that mental health and addiction issues and public safety have caused crises that are “gripping” Vancouver, and he and other politicians, First Nations leaders and law enforcement officials are pleading for federal and provincial help.

In a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier David Eby, mayors say there are “three critical fronts” that require action including “mandatory care” for people with severe mental health and addiction issues.

The letter says senior governments also need to bring in “meaningful bail reform” for repeat offenders, and the federal government must improve policing at Metro Vancouver ports to stop illicit drugs from coming in and stolen vehicles from being exported.

Sim says the “current system” has failed British Columbians, and the number of people dealing with severe mental health and addiction issues due to lack of proper care has “reached a critical point.”

Vancouver Police Chief Adam Palmer says repeat violent offenders are too often released on bail due to a “revolving door of justice,” and a new approach is needed to deal with mentally ill people who “pose a serious and immediate danger to themselves and others.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending