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What to expect from Ontario politics and the Doug Ford government in 2024

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The new year brings new opportunities for Premier Doug Ford to try to move past the controversies that plagued his government in 2023.

The Greenbelt scandal dominated Ontario politics for much of last year. Although Ford’s government has reversed its move to give select developers the right to build housing in the protected area (potentially boosting their land values by $8.3 billion), the RCMP is investigating how it all happened.

If that investigation results in criminal charges against anyone connected to the government, the Greenbelt will again become front and centre on the provincial political scene.

In 2024, Ford will be facing a new political threat in the form of newly elected Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie. She in turn will be battling it out with newish NDP leader Marit Stiles to position themselves as best placed to defeat Ford in the 2026 election.

As Ford’s government heads toward the midpoint of its mandate, the PCs will be striving for progress on the promises they made in the 2022 election campaign under the “Get It Done” slogan, starting with a Get-It-Done-themed party policy conference in February.

To get a flavour for what to expect in Ontario politics in 2024, CBC News interviewed strategists linked to each of the three main parties:

  • Mitch Heimpel, a former senior staffer in Ford’s PC government, now policy director of the public affairs firm Enterprise Canada
  • Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior staffer for the federal New Democrats, now the Canada program manager of Freidrich Ebert Stiftung, a German social democratic foundation.
  • Anushka Kurian, a strategist for the federal and provincial Liberals and consultant with McMillan Vantage Policy Group.

Housing

All three strategists agree that housing will be an issue that’s top of mind for voters and politicians in 2024. The government is heading into the third year of its 10-year pledge for 1.5 million homes to be built in Ontario, but the pace of new home construction starts so far remains far slower than what it will take to hit that target.

“There are reasons for that [pace] that aren’t in the government’s control, there’s a labour shortage, interest rates make it more difficult to finance construction,” Heimpel said.

The number of new housing construction starts in Ontario in 2022 and 2023 remained well below the pace required to hit the government’s 10-year target of 1.5 million homes. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

“But they have to show progress on housing, especially now that the federal government is finally showing progress,” he said. “They’ve really got to get out of the mud on housing.”

The government walked back several of its key proposals to make more land available for housing, including opening up the Greenbelt, forcing cities to expand their boundaries, and allowing home construction on prime agricultural land.

“They’re going to need to find a new way to tackle that problem if they want to have some success on it in the coming year,” Leichnitz said.

She says Ford’s push to build housing in the Greenbelt fuelled a perception among voters that he’s making decisions to benefit wealthy friends and insiders. Ford’s ability to counter that perception will be crucial for his political future.

Health care

The province continues to face unprecedented staffing challenges in the health care sector, with thousands of nurses leaving the profession and more than two million Ontarians going without a family doctor.

The government has made various moves to try to alleviate the shortages — including opening more medical school spots, making it easier to get a nursing degree, and clearing some of the hurdles for foreign-trained health professionals to get work in Ontario.

A healthcare worker wearing blue scrubs stands in a hallway under a sign that says 'To Main Hospital'
The Ford government is trying to alleviate staffing shortages in the health sector by opening more medical school spots, making it easier to get a nursing degree, and clearing some hurdles for foreign-trained health professionals to get work in Ontario. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Still, none of those potential solutions provides an immediate fix to the health human resources challenges that have triggered emergency room closures and lengthened wait times for some patients.

One of the government’s key plans for the health system in 2024 is to expand the number and scope of surgeries conducted outside of hospitals, including hip and knee replacements, a move that could see more OHIP-covered procedures done in privately owned clinics.

Leichnitz expects the New Democrats to make a strong push on health-care issues in the new year.

“You will see Marit Stiles out there working very hard to define the NDP as the party of health care, and tackling things like unspent money in the health system, how wait times have skyrocketed and of course, private delivery of health care,” she said.

Bonnie Crombie’s challenges

Crombie’s presence as Liberal leader “is going to completely change the dynamics of Ontario politics in 2024,” said Kurian.

“The Conservatives are very well aware that she could pose a real existential threat to Doug Ford in 2026,” she said, pointing out the PCs were quick to invest in attack ads trying to define Crombie as elitist and out of touch, including television ads that aired during NFL games.

Bonnie Crombie gestures as she stands at a podium that says '2023 Liberal Leadership.'
Bonnie Crombie became the new leader of the Ontario Liberal party in December 2023. (Patrick Morrell/CBC)

“You don’t spend that much money on opposition messaging unless you do see somebody as a threat,” Kurian said.

Crombie’s own challenges will include trying to find ways to boost her profile among voters when her Liberal party is nowhere near as flush with cash as the PCs.

While her election as leader gave the Liberals a nudge upward in polls, the bump so far appears to be nowhere near enough to overtake Ford’s party.

She’ll also have work to do to ensure that left-leaning Liberal supporters don’t move their support to the NDP over concerns that Crombie will shift the party to the right.

Marit Stiles’ challenges

“Marit Stiles has a treasure trove of evidence that Bonnie Crombie isn’t a real progressive, and if she spends two years beating [Crombie] over the head with that, she’s got a pretty good chance of limiting the Liberal leader’s potential,” said Heimpel.

One advantage that Stiles will maintain over Crombie for the foreseeable future: a seat in the Legislature and the opportunity for free publicity that comes with it, through challenging the government in question period.

Marit Stiles is pictured surrounded by reporters and tv cameras in a corridor at the Ontario Legislature.
Marit Stiles was named new leader of the Ontario NDP in February 2023. She is pictured speaking to reporters during a news conference at Queen’s Park in September. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Stiles faced some rumblings of discontent within her party in 2023 over expelling Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama for what the leader called “unilateral actions that have undermined our collective work.”

There’s an argument to be made that Stiles and her party would have suffered greater political damage among the wider electorate had Jama remained a New Democrat following her controversial comments on the Hamas attack against Israel and the Israeli military response in Gaza.

There is of course a fourth leader of an Ontario political party who merits a mention.

Mike Schreiner will double the size of his Green Party caucus in 2024, when the newly elected Aislinn Clancy joins him in the Legislature as the MPP for Kitchener Centre. However, the Greens’ influence on the Ontario political scene remains limited: the party took just six per cent of the popular vote in the last election.

Other issues to watch for in 2024

One of the first financial decisions the government will need to make in the new year is whether to boost funding for universities and colleges and allow a tuition increase, as recommended by a provincially-appointed panel in the fall.

The panel said the province’s long-running freeze on per-student funding, plus the Ford government’s 2019 move to cut and then freeze tuition fees have put the financial sustainability of Ontario’s post-secondary sector at serious risk.

Without a doubt, affordability will remain a top concern for Ontarians in 2024. Much will depend on how the intricate dance between economic growth, inflation, interest rates and employees’ push for higher wages plays out over the course of the year.

The redevelopment of Ontario Place will be in the spotlight in the coming year. While Toronto mayor Olivia Chow has thrown in the towel in her battle against plans for a luxury spa on the site, the citizens group Ontario Place For All has an early January court date in its bid for an injunction to stop work on the project.

You’ll also hear more in 2024 about the government’s plans to boost the supply of electricity to meet an expected surge in demand. The province intends to expand the Darlington and Bruce nuclear plants and faces an imminent decision about whether to refurbish the Pickering nuclear generating station.

Meanwhile, Ontario is pushing ahead with developing small modular reactors, adding new gas-fired power plants, and procuring new renewable energy projects. The latter is a U-turn from the Ford’s government’s first year in power, when it scrapped hundreds of wind and solar energy projects, at a cost of $230 million.

That’s just a fraction of the nearly $30 billion in taxpayer money the government has spent subsidizing hydro bills over the past five years.

 

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Trump is consistently inconsistent on abortion and reproductive rights

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CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump has had a tough time finding a consistent message to questions about abortion and reproductive rights.

The former president has constantly shifted his stances or offered vague, contradictory and at times nonsensical answers to questions on an issue that has become a major vulnerability for Republicans in this year’s election. Trump has been trying to win over voters, especially women, skeptical about his views, especially after he nominated three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn the nationwide right to abortion two years ago.

The latest example came this week when the Republican presidential nominee said some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

“It’s going to be redone,” he said during a Fox News town hall that aired Wednesday. “They’re going to, you’re going to, you end up with a vote of the people. They’re too tough, too tough. And those are going to be redone because already there’s a movement in those states.”

Trump did not specify if he meant he would take some kind of action if he wins in November, and he did not say which states or laws he was talking about. He did not elaborate on what he meant by “redone.”

He also seemed to be contradicting his own stand when referencing the strict abortion bans passed in Republican-controlled states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Trump recently said he would vote against a constitutional amendment on the Florida ballot that is aimed at overturning the state’s six-week abortion ban. That decision came after he had criticized the law as too harsh.

Trump has shifted between boasting about nominating the justices who helped strike down federal protections for abortion and trying to appear more neutral. It’s been an attempt to thread the divide between his base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights.

About 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Voters in seven states, including some conservative ones, have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to restrict them in statewide votes over the past two years.

Trump also has been repeating the narrative that he returned the question of abortion rights to states, even though voters do not have a direct say on that or any other issue in about half the states. This is particularly true for those living in the South, where Republican-controlled legislatures, many of which have been gerrymandered to give the GOP disproportionate power, have enacted some of the strictest abortion bans since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Currently, 13 states have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy, while four more ban it after six weeks — before many women know they’re pregnant.

Meanwhile, anti-abortion groups and their Republican allies in state governments are using an array of strategies to counter proposed ballot initiatives in at least eight states this year.

Here’s a breakdown of Trump’s fluctuating stances on reproductive rights.

Flip-flopping on Florida

On Tuesday, Trump claimed some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

But in August, Trump said he would vote against a state ballot measure that is attempting to repeal the six-week abortion ban passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That came a day after he seemed to indicate he would vote in favor of the measure. Trump previously called Florida’s six-week ban a “terrible mistake” and too extreme. In an April Time magazine interview, Trump repeated that he “thought six weeks is too severe.”

Trump on vetoing a national ban

Trump’s latest flip-flopping has involved his views on a national abortion ban.

During the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that he would veto a national abortion ban: “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it.”

This came just weeks after Trump repeatedly declined to say during the presidential debate with Democrat Kamala Harris whether he would veto a national abortion ban if he were elected.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said in an interview with NBC News before the presidential debate that Trump would veto a ban. In response to debate moderators prompting him about Vance’s statement, Trump said: “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness. And I don’t mind if he has a certain view, but I don’t think he was speaking for me.”

‘Pro-choice’ to 15-week ban

Trump’s shifting abortion policy stances began when the former reality TV star and developer started flirting with running for office.

He once called himself “very pro-choice.” But before becoming president, Trump said he “would indeed support a ban,” according to his book “The America We Deserve,” which was published in 2000.

In his first year as president, he said he was “pro-life with exceptions” but also said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women seeking abortions — a position he quickly reversed.

At the 2018 annual March for Life, Trump voiced support for a federal ban on abortion on or after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

More recently, Trump suggested in March that he might support a national ban on abortions around 15 weeks before announcing that he instead would leave the matter to the states.

Views on abortion pills, prosecuting women

In the Time interview, Trump said it should be left up to the states to decide whether to prosecute women for abortions or to monitor women’s pregnancies.

“The states are going to make that decision,” Trump said. “The states are going to have to be comfortable or uncomfortable, not me.”

Democrats have seized on the comments he made in 2016, saying “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions.

Trump also declined to comment on access to the abortion pill mifepristone, claiming that he has “pretty strong views” on the matter. He said he would make a statement on the issue, but it never came.

Trump responded similarly when asked about his views on the Comstock Act, a 19th century law that has been revived by anti-abortion groups seeking to block the mailing of mifepristone.

IVF and contraception

In May, Trump said during an interview with a Pittsburgh television station that he was open to supporting regulations on contraception and that his campaign would release a policy on the issue “very shortly.” He later said his comments were misinterpreted.

In the KDKA interview, Trump was asked, “Do you support any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception?”

“We’re looking at that and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly,” Trump responded.

Trump has not since released a policy statement on contraception.

Trump also has offered contradictory statements on in vitro fertilization.

During the Fox News town hall, which was taped Tuesday, Trump declared that he is “the father of IVF,” despite acknowledging during his answer that he needed an explanation of IVF in February after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos can be considered children under state law.

Trump said he instructed Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., to “explain IVF very quickly” to him in the aftermath of the ruling.

As concerns over access to fertility treatments rose, Trump pledged to promote IVF by requiring health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for it. Such a move would be at odds with the actions of much of his own party.

Even as the Republican Party has tried to create a national narrative that it is receptive to IVF, these messaging efforts have been undercut by GOP state lawmakers, Republican-dominated courts and anti-abortion leaders within the party’s ranks, as well as opposition to legislative attempts to protect IVF access.

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The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe, NDP’s Carla Beck react to debate |

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Saskatchewan‘s two main political party leaders faced off in the only televised debate in the lead up to the provincial election on Oct. 28. Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck say voters got a chance to see their platforms. (Oct. 17, 2024)

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Saskatchewan political leaders back on campaign trail after election debate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s main political leaders are back on the campaign trail today after hammering each other in a televised debate.

Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to make an announcement in Moose Jaw.

Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck is to make stops in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert.

During Wednesday night’s debate, Beck emphasized her plan to make life more affordable and said people deserve better than an out-of-touch Saskatchewan Party government.

Moe said his party wants to lower taxes and put money back into people’s pockets.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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