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Ontario expects economic growth to drop off as province faces possible recession

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The Ontario government is expecting economic growth and job creation to slow considerably in 2023 and 2024 as the province navigates global headwinds like sticky inflation and high interest rates.

Short-term uncertainty was the key theme of Ontario’s 2022 fall economic statement, which was tabled in the legislature Monday by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy. The fiscal blueprint does project improving deficits — nearly coming to balance by 2025 — and includes a number of new tax measures targeted at small businesses and seniors, and changes to the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP).

It also features significant downward revisions to real GDP growth when compared to the 2022 budget passed in August.

The government is now forecasting real GDP growth at 0.5 per cent in 2023, 1.6 per cent in 2024 and 2.1 per cent in 2025. That’s down from previous projections of 3.1 per cent, 2 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively, in the budget.

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A similar trend is expected for job growth. While the province netted about 324,000 jobs this fiscal year, that’s anticipated to fall to just 38,000 next year — down from 153,00 in August’s budget. The finance ministry is forecasting roughly 100,000 net jobs to be created in 2024 and about 117,000 in 2025.

At a technical briefing for media, senior officials said the revisions to GDP growth and jobs are an indicator of the “elevated degree of economic uncertainty” fuelled by rising interest rates as central banks try to tame inflation. They added that, taken collectively, private-sector forecasts suggest a recession is likely next year.

The fall economic outlook does include more bullish forecasts for the provincial deficit. The government is projecting a $12.9-billion deficit for 2022-2023, about $7.9 billion lower than previously stated in the budget. The reduction is due mainly to higher-than-expected tax revenue and GDP growth this year.

The deficit is then expected to fall to $8.1 billion in 2023-2024 and $700 million the following year.

Bethlenfalvy said Monday that eliminating the deficit is a “critical part” of the government’s long-term vision for the province.

“After unprecedented spending in response to the pandemic, now is the time for governments to show restraint, to act cautiously and responsibly,” he said in the legislature.

“Irresponsible spending today will only make inflation more painful and drag out an economic downturn.”

Public accounts released by the province in August showed a $2.1-billion surplus for the 2021-2022 fiscal year, but finance officials said Monday that those accounts do not account for “forward-looking” factors.

New tax, affordability measures

As part of the fall economic statement, the government is proposing to boost the monthly earnings exemption for Ontarians on disability support to $1,000, up from $200. That means ODSP recipients who have jobs will get to keep more of their support payments.

The Ministry of Finance estimates the measure would help about 25,000 people, and could potentially encourage another 25,000 ODSP recipients to join the workforce.

Ontarians on ODSP previously told CBC Toronto that the current exemption rate can be a disincentive to seek out work.

The fiscal outlook also allocates about $760 million to ensure that the core allowances for ODSP recipients are tied to inflation starting in July 2023 — a promise the government previously made but had not funded.

The government also committed to doubling the Guaranteed Annual Income System payment for low-income seniors for one year, beginning in January. That would increase the maximum payment for single seniors to $166 per month, and $332 per month for couples.

On the eve of the fall economic statement, Premier Doug Ford announced a 5.7-cent gas tax cut that took effect in July would be extended a year until the end of 2023.

Meanwhile, the province is also introducing tax relief for some businesses. The legislation tabled today would extend the phase-out range for the small business corporate tax rate from $10 million to $50 million of taxable capital. Currently, the range tops out at $15 million.

The province also proposed to launch a voluntary clean energy credit registry for businesses.

“The proposed registry would provide businesses with more choice in how they pursue their environmental and sustainability goals,” the government said in the economic update document.

Companies that have commitments to use 100 per cent clean or renewable energy could use the credits to show their electricity has been sourced from clean resources such as hydroelectric, solar, wind, bioenergy and nuclear power, the government said. Revenue “could be” returned to ratepayers, help lower electricity costs or support more clean energy generation, the document said.

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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