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Ontario Leads Canada’s Real Estate Cooldown As Sales Fall To Crisis Levels: RBC

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Canadian real estate markets are softening as higher rates begin to weigh on virtually all markets. RBC warns October data reveals falling existing home sales and rising inventory. The combination has resulted in the price decline for a typical home doubling pace last month. Despite some mortgage rate relief appearing, the bank expects the market weakness to spread further in the near term.

Canadian Real Estate Markets Are Slowing, Rate of Price Declines Double 

Canadian real estate markets are showing weakness across the country. Existing home sales fell 5% in October, falling 12% over the previous four months. At the same time, inventory is beginning to rise, helping push home prices lower.

The price of a typical home has reversed the gains made over the past few months. Home prices fell 0.8% in October, doubling the rate of decline a month before. Another month like this could dip unadjusted annual growth into negative territory.

“We expect this downtrend to continue in the coming months,” explains Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC.

He attributes the broad decline to higher interest rates and a lack of affordability. The trend stands out in provinces like BC and Ontario, where prices are the highest.

Ontario Leads The Market Lower With Crisis-Level Sales

Ontario real estate led the country’s exuberant markets higher, and now it’s doing the opposite. Rising interest rates helped provide significant leverage to boost prices. Predictably, rising rates are reversing that activity, especially in pricey Ontario, where leverage is essential to supporting rapid price gains.

“Home resales in the province fell for the fifth straight month in October, reaching the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis (excluding the pandemic shutdown period),” says Hogue.

He notes that Ontario’s exuberant market isn’t the only one weakening. Regions that managed to buck the national slowdown are finally starting to show signs, like Alberta. The province saw existing home sales fall 8.3% in October.

For now, holdover provinces have seen annual price growth remain positive. However, that’s expected to change soon.

Canadian Real Estate Markets Expected To Continue Softening

Canadian real estate prices launched higher at signs of falling rates earlier this year. Many expected that to repeat after softening inflation data, but Canada’s largest bank doesn’t see it. The macro-environment today is very different from the one a few months ago.

“High interest rates, major affordability challenges, and mounting economic uncertainty have kept homebuyer demand muted, especially in high-priced markets in Ontario and BC,” Hogue explains.

Adding, “We see this trend continuing into next year. With higher interest costs bringing more sellers to market, buyers could gain even more pricing power in the months ahead. This would set the stage for further price erosion in Ontario and BC.”

The bank warns this weakness may potentially spread to other regions. A turnaround isn’t expected until interest rates pull back, and they don’t see the first Bank of Canada policy cut happening until mid-2024. This expectation appears consistent with market expectations that the policy rate remains sticky despite falling bond yields.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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