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Ontario parties spend summer preparing for possibility of an early election

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TORONTO – Ontario’s major political parties have been spending the summer nominating candidates, running “campaign schools,” and canvassing after remarks from the premier this spring fuelled speculation he will call an early election.

The province’s next fixed election date isn’t until June 2026, but Doug Ford set off alarm bells in political circles this past May when he repeatedly refused to commit to that timeline during a news conference, saying only that he wants to make sure he fulfils his agenda and keeps the promises his majority Progressive Conservative government has made.

Liberal co-campaign directors Genevieve Tomney and Chad Walsh – officially named to their positions soon – looked at each other and said, “now it’s time to go,” Tomney said in an interview.

“We’ve kind of been treating this as a campaign summer,” she said.

“What I would say about campaigns is that I sometimes kind of compare it to an iceberg, where so much of the work that’s being done is happening below the surface, but we’re gearing up for a pretty big end of summer into the fall.”

Some of that below-the-surface work entails putting calls out to potential campaign staff and volunteers. Gone are the majority Liberal government days when the party had a campaign army at the ready – most of them have moved into different roles and into the private sector.

“Pulling all of those people back together again is kind of like a huge volunteer-slash-HR effort as well,” Tomney said.

Some of the public-facing election preparations include nominating candidates. The Liberals are starting by nominating their incumbents, but that will only fill nine out of 124 ridings, so the task ahead is daunting.

It’s unclear how much time they will have – elections tend to happen in the fall or spring, and Tomney said the Liberals are focusing on three main scenarios: fall 2024, spring 2025 and the as-scheduled spring 2026.

Ford told Ottawa radio station CFRA that Ontario would “100 per cent” not have an election this summer or fall.

But parties like the NDP are not banking on that.

“We’re going to prepare as such,” Leader Marit Stiles said in an interview. “If it’s not this fall and it’s, say, next spring we will be just even more ready.”

Laryssa Waler, a former director of communications for Ford and founder of Walman Strategies, said a spring 2025 election seems more likely than the fall.

“You saw how the last election got called, there was essentially a referendum on the budget that they presented and they won more seats,” she said in an interview. “So I wouldn’t be surprised if they did something similar, because it worked so well last time.”

The NDP was starting some early election campaign planning this year, but Ford’s comments “kicked it up a notch,” Stiles said. Summers are always a good time for members of provincial parliament to connect with their constituents, and this year the politicians and volunteers are out knocking on doors, Stiles said.

“Our MPPs are on the road and some of them have been out across the province and will continue to be to help engage with our activists, connect with potential voters, help us to identify candidates, which of course is a big push right now.

“In a lot of ridings, where we don’t have incumbents and we don’t even have a candidate yet (organizers) are canvassing this summer. They’re trying to cover as much of the riding as they can. Many of them are trying to get through the entire riding … before the fall.”

The NDP are also running campaign schools this summer to help teach people in local riding associations how to run campaigns, so the party is ready on the ground locally, not just centrally, Stiles said.

Both opposition parties are also working on some ads to help introduce their leaders to voters, since it will be the first provincial general election each of them fight.

The Green Party of Ontario, which now has two seats in the legislature, has also been busy over the past couple of months.

“We’ve spent the summer assembling localized mobilizing teams and boosting our ground game capacity in target ridings across the province, with our leader and deputy leaders participating in regular riding canvasses,” executive director Jaymini Bhikha wrote in a statement.

“We are also preparing to open nominations in the very near future.”

The Progressive Conservatives currently hold 78 seats, so they have a significant advantage when it comes to getting 124 candidates in place for an election. The party is also ahead in polling and is raising more money than the others, Waler said, which are big factors in considering election readiness. As well, they are constantly polling and conducting research, she said.

Tory caucus members have been out door knocking too this summer, but Ford encourages them to do so year-round, no matter the time in the election cycle, Waler said.

“If you do that, the benefit is you’re more election ready, but the practicality is, you know what your constituents think year round,” she said.

“I think that (the party) took a lot of lessons from the time they spent not in government, of things that they’re going to always make sure they do, and that is data and fundraising. They’re not going to ever be caught ill-prepared again.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 21, 2024.

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Mariners righty Bryan Woo perfect through 6 innings against Padres

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SEATTLE (AP) — Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has not allowed a baserunner through six innings against the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night.

Woo has relied mostly on his fastball at the top of the strike zone to shut down the Padres. The closest San Diego has come to a hit was Manny Machado’s 113 mph line drive leading off the fifth inning that was grabbed by Randy Arozarena in left field with a diving catch.

Third baseman Josh Rojas also made an excellent defensive play charging a slow grounder from Xander Bogaerts and throwing him out to end the second inning.

Woo, in his second season in the majors, has struck out four. He’s thrown 64 pitches and has yet to get to a three-ball count.

Seattle leads 3-0.

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AP MLB:

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Southern Baptist trustees back agency president but warn against needless controversy

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Less than two months after the Southern Baptists’ policy arm issued an embarrassing retraction of an announcement of its leader’s firing, it gave him a strong vote of confidence this week — but with a caution against stirring unnecessary controversy.

Trustees for the Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission affirmed both their president, Brent Leatherwood, and the direction of the organization, which has long been on the vanguard of the religious right in voicing the conservative views of the nation’s largest Protestant denomination.

“We strongly affirm the ERLC under the leadership of Brent Leatherwood,” said incoming chair Scott Foshie. “The world and Southern Baptists need to hear that.”

His words echoed a formal statement issued by the trustees Wednesday after a lengthy closed-door session Tuesday. The statement acknowledged that, while the commission speaks out on numerous contentious issues where controversy is inevitable, that’s all the more reason not to stir up more controversy on nonessential issues.

Trustees acknowledged that support for the organization is wavering among individual churches, who fund almost all its budget. They supported the commission’s plan, already in the works, to create a new office to work more closely with pastors to help them better understand and guide the agency’s work.

“In a time of deep division in our culture, from polarization in our political environment, to falling trust in institutions, to the fracturing of families, the ERLC is needed now as much as ever both to serve in the public square,” the statement said.

But it urged the commission to be careful.

It said the staff needs to follow a companion set of guidelines, also issued Wednesday, which says the commission needs to base its public stances on the Bible as well as on the official faith statement and other resolutions approved by Southern Baptists at annual meetings in recent decades. The guidelines state that if advocacy on a particular issue is likely to “upset certain segments of the SBC,” the staff needs to evaluate the issue carefully — but may still speak out if it’s deemed essential.

The commission has staked out staunchly conservative stances on religious and political issues, with strong opposition to abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Still, it has drawn the criticism of a vocal segment of the convention that wants to move the denomination even further to the right and sees it as drifting leftward.

Leatherwood has resisted calls to support the criminalization of women seeking abortion. He’s been criticized for supporting U.S. aid for Ukraine’s military defense and for supporting a Tennessee bill that would prevent access to firearms for people deemed a threat to others or themselves — an issue that is personal to Leatherwood after his children’s school was targeted in a deadly 2023 shooting.

Then in July, criticism erupted after Leatherwood issued a statement commending President Joe Biden for the “selfless act” of withdrawing from the presidential race after a dismal debate performance. Numerous voices in the Southern Baptist Convention, where overwhelmingly pro-Republican views prevail, denounced the statement, saying Biden acted not out of selflessness but out of political necessity.

Within a day, the commission’s chairman, Kevin Smith, moved to oust Leatherwood, and the agency issued a statement saying he had been removed. But after it emerged that Smith acted without a vote of the board’s executive committee, as required by bylaws, Smith resigned and the agency retracted its announcement.

Two members of the executive committee declined to comment on the episode in interviews, deferring to the agency’s strong statements in support of Leatherwood.

Even before that episode, Leatherwood recognized the problem of wavering support for the commission. At the Southern Baptists’ annual meeting in Indianapolis in June, church representatives voted down a proposal to abolish the commission entirely — but with a notable minority of voters supporting its abolition.

Those results “weren’t just disappointing, they were unacceptable,” Leatherwood said in an official address to the commission Tuesday.

“I say that not to the outrage artists and the grievance grifters who will never be on our side, who spin up political attack committees to come and throw bombs at us,” he said. “No, I’m talking to the local pastor and the everyday church member who just need to better understand our mission and the work that we do, and know that our work represents real Baptist leadership.”

He said the agency has already been taking such steps, surveying pastors and issuing lengthy guidebooks on issues they said were priorities, including election polarization and gender issues. It also issued a state-by-state guide to various abortion-related measures on November ballots.

“Our culture is not well right now,” Leatherwood said. Partisanship has been overwhelming “so many Christians,” he said. “Mistruths and conspiracy theories, they are everywhere right now.”

He urged Baptists to respond with gentleness and reason to such partisanship.

“The anxiety that people are feeling is real, but we help them understand it’s not supposed to be this way,” he said.

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Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

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Alberta Premier Smith says she wants Calgary Green Line to proceed as first pitched

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EDMONTON – Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she’s committed to Calgary’s multibillion-dollar Green Line light-rail transit project, but as it was originally envisioned.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Smith declined to say how much her government is now willing to fund.

But she said she is concerned the line is getting shorter while its budget has ballooned from the original price tag of $4.5 billion.

Smith called the Green Line “the incredible shrinking project,” and that it needs a complete “rethink” to be more cost-effective.

“It would cost $20 billion to build that entire line at the per kilometre rate we’re seeing now. That is the kind of project that could bankrupt a city,” said Smith in Lloydminster, Sask.

“I think we just have to do it a different way.”

The premier was making her first public comments on the Green Line since Transportation Minister Devin Dreeshen announced last week the province will pull its $1.53 billion in funding from the $6.2-billion transit project if the city doesn’t change course.

The city’s current city council approved an updated, shortened line in July with an added $700 million in costs.

Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek has said that in light of the province’s decision, the city now can’t afford to build the line and the province needs to assume the financial risk.

Gondek has said she met with the premier earlier this week to say what the province wants won’t work. City council is set to meet next week to hear advice on how to abandon the project and offload the costs and delivery onto the province.

Smith, like Dreeshen, said the province is opposed to tunnelling underground for downtown stops as per the latest city plans. Her government also wants to see the rail line go farther into south Calgary.

Dreeshen in a recent interview, said if the city rejects the new alignment proposals, now expected from an engineering firm chosen by the province by the end of the year, the rail line will be on the shelf indefinitely.

If the city votes to try to wash its hands of the financial responsibility next week, Dreeshen suggested there’s another long battle ahead.

“Then it goes to the lawyers, and we’ll have to assess whatever they come up with at that time,” said Dreeshen in a Sept. 6 interview.

He declined to say whether the province would backstop liabilities for delayed or cancelled contracts.

To date, more than $1.4 billion has been spent on land acquisition, utility upgrades and a new fleet of rail vehicles — costs that could be tied to the existing plan.

The dispute has become highly politicized given that former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi became leader of the provincial NDP in June. The NDP is the Official Opposition and chief rival to Smith’s United Conservatives.

Nenshi left city hall in 2021. Dreeshen has now labelled the Green Line project the “Nenshi nightmare.” He calls Nenshi responsible for what he terms the mismanagement of the project from the start, saying it was never properly engineered.

Nenshi, in turn, has blamed Dreeshen for turning the Green Line into a political football and putting jobs at risk in the dispute.

Bill Black, head of the Calgary Construction Association, told The Canadian Press last week he doesn’t take sides on the design, but also doesn’t want to see a politicized spat sideline construction.

“It’s hard not to feel like the kids when the parents are going through a divorce, where the kids are always the collateral damage when the parents are fighting,” he said.

The federal government, which has also committed $1.53 billion, said it was taken by surprise with the Alberta government’s decision.

Federal Infrastructure Minister Sean Fraser has said Ottawa wants to work with Alberta on next steps, saying the withdrawal of provincial funding will impact thousands of jobs.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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