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Ontario's 6th wave of COVID-19: How bad will it get? – CBC.ca

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Premier Doug Ford describes Ontario’s current COVID-19 situation as “a little spike,” but there are plenty of signs that the pandemic’s sixth wave is on a trajectory to become far bigger than that.  

By every available measure — hospitalizations, officially confirmed cases and the presence of the virus in sewage — Ontario’s latest wave of COVID-19 infections is showing exponential growth. 

Estimates from the viral count in wastewater suggest about 100,000 people are now getting infected daily in Ontario, according to the COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. That is a faster infection rate than at any previous time in the pandemic. 

All of this leaves no doubt that Ontario is in a sixth wave, even though the province’s Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Kieran Moore has yet to declare it officially. Moore hasn’t held a news conference or done any media interviews in four weeks, despite repeated requests from a range of media outlets, including CBC News.  

Still, plenty of unknowns remain about Ontario’s sixth wave: What kind of impact is it having? How much bigger will it get? What should the province do about it?

The Ford government’s approach to that last question right now is to stay the course after lifting most COVID-19 public measures last month.

At a news conference on Wednesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford denied he is downplaying the significance of the sixth wave of COVID-19 to hit the province, while Health Minister Christine Elliott said there is ‘no cause to panic.’ (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

“There’s no cause for panic,” Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott said Wednesday when asked about the COVID-19 situation at an unrelated news conference. “This is something that we are sure we’re going to be able to get through.”

At the same news conference, Ford was asked if he’s downplaying the significance of the current wave for political reasons, with Ontario’s election campaign due to begin in four weeks.

“I’m not downplaying it,” Ford responded. “But let’s put this into perspective. We have still one of the lowest cases per capita of hospitalizations in the country.”

Ford and Elliott are repeatedly aiming to reassure Ontarians that hospital bed capacity, high vaccination rates and the availability of antiviral medication mean the province’s health system can cope with the current wave.

‘This pandemic is not over’

It’s a message that doesn’t sit well with those who believe “hospitals aren’t overrun” is a low bar for success, including Dr. Amit Arya, a palliative care physician who works in hospitals and long-term care homes in the Toronto area

“Simply just ignoring COVID-19 and pretending that it doesn’t exist and dropping all public health protections is the wrong message at this point in time,” Arya said in an interview. 

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore has not held a news conference or conducted media interviews since March 8. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

“Many people, including even some of my own friends and family, are believing this message and sort of interpreting this to say that the pandemic is over,” Arya added. 

Anthony Dale, the president of the Ontario Hospital Association, says Elliott’s call not to panic is appropriate, but adds a caveat. 

“Panic doesn’t solve anything. But in saying, ‘Don’t panic,’ that also doesn’t mean ‘Look away. there’s absolutely nothing to see here, everything’s fine,'” Dale said in an interview. “Our number one message is that this pandemic is not over.”

The province reported 1,074 patients in hospital with COVID-19 on Wednesday, a jump of 36 per cent in a week. Looking beyond that current figure, what concerns many health experts is the number of patients to come, especially given the record high number of cases.

“We’re headed in the wrong direction,” said infectious diseases specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch in an interview Wednesday.  

“There’s widespread COVID in the community and that makes it easier [for the virus] to find vulnerable individuals and at-risk populations, which means we will see more hospitalizations,” Bogoch said.

A crowd heads into Scotiabank Arena in Toronto for a Justin Bieber concert on March 25, a few days after the Ontario government ended mandatory masking rules in most indoor spaces in the province. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Throughout the pandemic, experts have tried to make it clear that hospitalization statistics are what’s called a “lagging indicator” of the COVID-19 case rate: the severity of the trend doesn’t become apparent until a couple of weeks after infections happen.

Some portion of the 100,000 people getting infected every day now will end up in hospital later this month, and some of those will die. Meanwhile, many hospitals are beginning to face staffing challenges as health-care workers call in sick because they or a family member has contracted COVID-19. 

Doctors are questioning Ford’s insistence that the province can easily handle a surge in patients by adding more bed capacity. 

‘Head-in-the-sand approach’

“Health-care workers are getting COVID-19 at a rate in Ontario never seen this pandemic. We can’t staff any extra beds in the hospitals,” Dr. Lisa Salamon, an emergency physician in Scarborough, tweeted this week. She added that many of the cases involve health workers infected by their children, bringing the novel coronavirus home from school. 

Dr. David Fisman, a physician and epidemiologist with the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, says the province is taking a “head-in-the-sand approach” to the current wave and “de facto encouraging people to spread disease” by doing so. 

“It’s particularly concerning because these waves are hitting young kids in a manner out of all proportion to what’s happened earlier in the pandemic,” Fisman said in an email to CBC News.  

Ontario has extended its plan to distribute COVID-19 rapid test kits for free until the end of July. The province allows only a limited segment of the population to get a full-fledged test for COVID-19 that is confirmed in a laboratory. (Paul Smith/CBC)

The government’s decision to end mandatory mask rules in mid-March in most indoor locations, including schools, was accompanied by a shift in message. Moore, Ford and Elliot began describing masking as a personal choice for those at higher risk.

This consigns to the dustbin the idea that people should wear masks in public indoor settings to prevent spreading COVID-19 to others. 

‘We should all be wearing masks’

Ford and Elliott have repeatedly said no to re-imposing the mask mandate, saying that Dr. Moore is not recommending it. By contrast, Quebec extended its mandatory masking rules this week until the end of April. 

“We should all be going back to wearing masks,” said Dr. Mustafa Hirji, the medical officer of health for Niagara Region. “It’s definitely going to be much harder to bring the people back to masking once they have stopped.”  

Given all this, how bad will the sixth wave get?

“I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that necessarily this wave is going to be less bad than the previous wave,” Hirji said. “It’s not a guaranteed outcome, and I don’t think we should be banking on that.”  

Dr. Kashif Pirzada, an emergency room physician in Toronto, said he is hopeful that the protection from vaccines and the arrival of better weather will work in Ontario’s favour. 

“Fingers crossed it’ll be okay,” Pirzada said in an interview.

“But overall, dropping precautions right when a wave is starting was a really bad move and it’s going to cost us all, unfortunately.”

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Langford, Heim lead Rangers to wild 13-8 win over Blue Jays

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ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Rookie Wyatt Langford homered, doubled twice and became the first Texas player this season to reach base five times, struggling Jonah Heim delivered a two-run single to break a sixth-inning tie and the Rangers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 13-8 on Tuesday night.

Leody Taveras also had a homer among his three hits for the Rangers.

Langford, who also walked twice, has 12 homers and 25 doubles this season. He is hitting .345 in September.

“I think it’s really important to finish on a strong note,” Langford said. “I’m just going to keep trying to do that.”

Heim was 1-for-34 in September before he lined a single to right field off Tommy Nance (0-2) to score Adolis García and Nathaniel Lowe, giving Texas a 9-7 lead. Heim went to the plate hitting .212 with 53 RBIs after being voted an All-Star starter last season with a career-best 95 RBIs. He added a double in the eighth ahead of Taveras’ homer during a three-run inning.

Texas had 13 hits and left 13 men on. It was the Rangers’ highest-scoring game since a 15-8 win at Oakland on May 7.

Matt Festa (5-1) pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win, giving him a 5-0 record in 13 appearances with the Rangers after being granted free agency by the New York Mets on July 7.

Nathan Eovaldi, a star of Texas’ 2023 run to the franchise’s first World Series championship, had his worst start of the year in what could have been his final home start with the Rangers. Eovaldi, who will be a free agent next season, allowed 11 hits (the most of his two seasons with Texas) and seven runs (tied for the most).

“I felt like early in the game they just had a few hits that found the holes, a few first-pitch base hits,” said Eovaldi, who is vested for a $20 million player option with Texas for 2025. “I think at the end of the day I just need to do a better job of executing my pitches.”

Eovaldi took a 7-3 lead into the fifth inning after the Rangers scored five unearned runs in the fourth. The Jays then scored four runs to knock out Eovaldi after 4 2/3 innings.

Six of the seven runs scored against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt in 3 2/3 innings were unearned. Bassitt had a throwing error during Texas’ two-run third inning.

“We didn’t help ourselves defensively, taking care of the ball to secure some outs,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said.

The Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a double and two singles, his most hits in a game since having four on Sept. 3. Guerrero is hitting .384 since the All-Star break.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette (calf) was activated and played for the first time since July 19, going 2 for 5 with an RBI. … OF Daulton Varsho (shoulder) was placed on the 10-day injured list and will have rotator cuff surgery … INF Will Wagner (knee inflammation) was placed on the 60-day list.

UP NEXT

Rangers: LHP Chad Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) will pitch Wednesday night’s game on extended five days’ rest after allowing career highs in hits (nine), runs (eight) and home runs (three) in 3 2/3 innings losing at Arizona on Sept. 14.

Blue Jays: RHP Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.50) has had two no-hitters get away in the ninth inning this season, including in his previous start against the New York Mets on Sept. 11. Francis is the first major-leaguer to have that happen since Rangers Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan in 1989.

AP MLB:

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Billie Jean King set to earn another honor with the Congressional Gold Medal

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Billie Jean King will become the first individual female athlete to be awarded the Congressional Gold Medal.

Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey announced Tuesday that their bipartisan legislation had passed the House of Representatives and would be sent to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The bill to honor King, the tennis Hall of Famer and activist, had already passed unanimously in the Senate.

Sherrill, a Democrat, said in a statement that King’s “lifetime of advocacy and hard work changed the landscape for women and girls on the court, in the classroom, and the workplace.”

The bill was introduced last September on the 50th anniversary of King’s victory over Bobby Riggs in the “Battle of the Sexes,” still the most-watched tennis match of all-time. The medal, awarded by Congress for distinguished achievements and contributions to society, has previously been given to athletes including baseball players Jackie Robinson and Roberto Clemente, and golfers Jack Nicklaus, Byron Nelson and Arnold Palmer.

King had already been awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2009. Fitzpatrick, a Republican, says she has “broken barriers, led uncharted paths, and inspired countless people to stand proudly with courage and conviction in the fight for what is right.”

___

AP tennis:

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Account tweaks for young Instagram users ‘minimum’ expected by B.C., David Eby says

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SURREY, B.C. – Premier David Eby says new account control measures for young Instagram users introduced Tuesday by social media giant Meta are the “minimum” expected of tech companies to keep kids safe online.

The parent company of Instagram says users in Canada and elsewhere under 18 will have their accounts set to private by default starting Tuesday, restricting who can send messages, among other parental controls and settings.

Speaking at an unrelated event Tuesday, Eby says the province began talks with social media companies after threatening legislation that would put big tech companies on the hook for “significant potential damages” if they were found negligent in failing to keep kids safe from online predators.

Eby says the case of Carson Cleland, a 12-year-old from Prince George, B.C., who took his own life last year after being targeted by a predator on Snapchat, was “horrific and totally preventable.”

He says social media apps are “nothing special,” and should be held to the same child safety standards as anyone who operates a place that invites young people, whether it’s an amusement park, a playground or an online platform.

In a progress report released Tuesday about the province’s engagement with big tech companies including Google, Meta, TikTok, Spapchat and X, formerly known as Twitter, the provincial government says the companies are implementing changes, including a “trusted flagger” option to quickly remove intimate images.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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