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Ontario's new COVID-19 modelling to show ICUs full by early February: sources – CBC.ca

Published

4 years ago

January 11, 2021

Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling will project the province’s intensive care units to be filled beyond capacity by early February, and will also show how a new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus risks accelerating the spread of infections, sources tell CBC News.

Premier Doug Ford has warned he is ready to impose further restrictions based on the modelling, but no announcement is planned before Tuesday, according to government sources.

Although the projections by Ontario’s scientific advisers were presented to cabinet on Friday, the information is not slated to be made public until Tuesday.

Multiple sources who have seen the modelling tell CBC News it includes:

Forecasts putting the province on track to report an average of 6,000 new cases of COVID-19 daily before the end of January.
Survey data indicating that a large proportion of Ontarians are not following basic public health guidelines to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Mobility data showing a spike in movement by Ontarians in the days just before Christmas when the government imposed what it described as a provincewide lockdown, beginning Boxing Day.

Ontario’s new COVID-19 modelling to be released on Tuesday will project the province’s intensive care units to be filled beyond capacity in early February, sources tell CBC News. (CBC)

“The modelling paints a very bleak picture both in terms of daily cases and the impact on hospitals,” a senior government official told CBC News on Sunday.

“We are in a desperate situation and when you see the modelling, you’ll fall off your chair,” Ford said Friday during a news conference filled with dire warnings of what Ontario faces from COVID-19.

“We are in a crisis, that’s how I can describe it. It is scary,” Ford said. “This is the most serious situation we’ve ever been in, ever, ever, since the beginning of this pandemic.”

Despite Ford’s statements, the new modelling does not show dramatically different trends from what Ontario’s COVID-19 science table previously warned would happen with the pandemic in January, according to two sources who saw the material.

Cabinet is due to meet Monday to decide what measures to impose, a government source tells CBC News.

“Everything is on the table,” Ford has said repeatedly in recent days.

Sources say options include the consideration of a curfew designed to prevent from people gathering with others outside their own households, as well as further shutdowns of non-essential businesses and workplaces.

However, government officials say cabinet has not had more than a broad discussion about the possible measures and hasn’t decided which restrictions to impose.

“We don’t have a lot of tools left in the tool box,” the senior government official acknowledged.

On Dec. 21, the Ford government announced what it described as a provincewide lockdown to take effect on Boxing Day. The measures included restricting most shops other than grocery stores and pharmacies to curbside pickup only, and limiting restaurants and bars to takeout and delivery.

Mobility data that has been presented to cabinet shows a spike in movement by Ontarians in the days just before Christmas, according to sources. The government imposed what it described as a provincewide lockdown, beginning Boxing Day. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

The mobility data will raise questions about the government’s decision not to impose tighter restrictions sooner, given how the growth in new cases began surging in late December.

In the two weeks leading up to Christmas, the province’s average daily number of new cases grew at a pace of less than two per cent per day.

But over the past two weeks, the pace has accelerated much more rapidly, increasing by about 3.4 per cent per day.

If the growth in new cases continues at that rate, Ontario is on track to average more than 6,000 cases per day before the end of January.

Modelling released in mid-December projected Ontario to have roughly 400 patients with COVID-19 in intensive care by this point in January if cases grew at a rate of three per cent daily. The ICUs hit that mark on Saturday, said a report from Critical Care Services Ontario, a provincial health agency.

Based on evidence of how a new variant of the coronavirus is currently spreading in Britain, there are projections that Ontario could, by late February, see an even more rapid rise in the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases. (Alberto Pezzali/The Associated Press)

According to sources who saw the new modelling, it projects nearly 800 coronavirus patients in ICU by early February if the daily growth in cases is at three per cent, and nearly 1,000 in intensive care if cases grow by five per cent daily.

Either scenario would pose a risk of Ontario’s hospitals having more ICU patients than they can currently handle.

Setting aside the effects of COVID-19, health officials say Ontario typically has a baseline of about 1,200 patients in intensive care at a time just because of everyday health emergencies, from heart attacks and strokes to car accidents or organ failure.

The province has the capacity for around 2,000 ICU patients in total, limited not just by the number of beds but also the availability of doctors, nurses and other health staff trained in intensive care.

Ford tweeted Sunday that Ontario’s health-care system “is on the brink of being overwhelmed.”

Friends, we are going to see some real turbulent waters over the next few months. Our healthcare system is on the brink of being overwhelmed and we must take every precaution to keep our most vulnerable safe. <br><br>Other people’s lives are in your hands. <a href=”https://t.co/HmFLDPY9P6″>pic.twitter.com/HmFLDPY9P6</a>

—@fordnation

The information presented to cabinet about the potential effect of a coronavirus variant first reported in the U.K. is based on research by Queen’s University mathematician Troy Day.

The new variant spreads more easily and faster than the original version of the virus, according to a report from researchers at Imperial College London released on Dec. 31, but it is not believed to be more deadly.

Day’s research shows, based on evidence of how the virus is currently spreading in Britain, that Ontario could, by late February, see the overall number of new daily cases doubling in a stretch of just 10 to 15 days, twice as fast as the recent growth rate.

“That would be a really horrific situation,” Day said in an interview with CBC News.

The survey data shows that a “concerning” proportion of people are not following public health guidelines in their personal behaviour, said the government official, adding that the data likely underestimates the actual level of non-compliance.

CBC reported in October that the government planned to conduct such surveys of public health behaviours.

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Langford, Heim lead Rangers to wild 13-8 win over Blue Jays

Published

5 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Rookie Wyatt Langford homered, doubled twice and became the first Texas player this season to reach base five times, struggling Jonah Heim delivered a two-run single to break a sixth-inning tie and the Rangers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 13-8 on Tuesday night.

Leody Taveras also had a homer among his three hits for the Rangers.

Langford, who also walked twice, has 12 homers and 25 doubles this season. He is hitting .345 in September.

“I think it’s really important to finish on a strong note,” Langford said. “I’m just going to keep trying to do that.”

Heim was 1-for-34 in September before he lined a single to right field off Tommy Nance (0-2) to score Adolis García and Nathaniel Lowe, giving Texas a 9-7 lead. Heim went to the plate hitting .212 with 53 RBIs after being voted an All-Star starter last season with a career-best 95 RBIs. He added a double in the eighth ahead of Taveras’ homer during a three-run inning.

Texas had 13 hits and left 13 men on. It was the Rangers’ highest-scoring game since a 15-8 win at Oakland on May 7.

Matt Festa (5-1) pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win, giving him a 5-0 record in 13 appearances with the Rangers after being granted free agency by the New York Mets on July 7.

Nathan Eovaldi, a star of Texas’ 2023 run to the franchise’s first World Series championship, had his worst start of the year in what could have been his final home start with the Rangers. Eovaldi, who will be a free agent next season, allowed 11 hits (the most of his two seasons with Texas) and seven runs (tied for the most).

“I felt like early in the game they just had a few hits that found the holes, a few first-pitch base hits,” said Eovaldi, who is vested for a $20 million player option with Texas for 2025. “I think at the end of the day I just need to do a better job of executing my pitches.”

Eovaldi took a 7-3 lead into the fifth inning after the Rangers scored five unearned runs in the fourth. The Jays then scored four runs to knock out Eovaldi after 4 2/3 innings.

Six of the seven runs scored against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt in 3 2/3 innings were unearned. Bassitt had a throwing error during Texas’ two-run third inning.

“We didn’t help ourselves defensively, taking care of the ball to secure some outs,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said.

The Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a double and two singles, his most hits in a game since having four on Sept. 3. Guerrero is hitting .384 since the All-Star break.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette (calf) was activated and played for the first time since July 19, going 2 for 5 with an RBI. … OF Daulton Varsho (shoulder) was placed on the 10-day injured list and will have rotator cuff surgery … INF Will Wagner (knee inflammation) was placed on the 60-day list.

UP NEXT

Rangers: LHP Chad Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) will pitch Wednesday night’s game on extended five days’ rest after allowing career highs in hits (nine), runs (eight) and home runs (three) in 3 2/3 innings losing at Arizona on Sept. 14.

Blue Jays: RHP Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.50) has had two no-hitters get away in the ninth inning this season, including in his previous start against the New York Mets on Sept. 11. Francis is the first major-leaguer to have that happen since Rangers Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan in 1989.

—

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Billie Jean King set to earn another honor with the Congressional Gold Medal

Published

6 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

WASHINGTON (AP) — Billie Jean King will become the first individual female athlete to be awarded the Congressional Gold Medal.

Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey announced Tuesday that their bipartisan legislation had passed the House of Representatives and would be sent to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The bill to honor King, the tennis Hall of Famer and activist, had already passed unanimously in the Senate.

Sherrill, a Democrat, said in a statement that King’s “lifetime of advocacy and hard work changed the landscape for women and girls on the court, in the classroom, and the workplace.”

The bill was introduced last September on the 50th anniversary of King’s victory over Bobby Riggs in the “Battle of the Sexes,” still the most-watched tennis match of all-time. The medal, awarded by Congress for distinguished achievements and contributions to society, has previously been given to athletes including baseball players Jackie Robinson and Roberto Clemente, and golfers Jack Nicklaus, Byron Nelson and Arnold Palmer.

King had already been awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2009. Fitzpatrick, a Republican, says she has “broken barriers, led uncharted paths, and inspired countless people to stand proudly with courage and conviction in the fight for what is right.”

___

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Account tweaks for young Instagram users ‘minimum’ expected by B.C., David Eby says

Published

6 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

SURREY, B.C. – Premier David Eby says new account control measures for young Instagram users introduced Tuesday by social media giant Meta are the “minimum” expected of tech companies to keep kids safe online.

The parent company of Instagram says users in Canada and elsewhere under 18 will have their accounts set to private by default starting Tuesday, restricting who can send messages, among other parental controls and settings.

Speaking at an unrelated event Tuesday, Eby says the province began talks with social media companies after threatening legislation that would put big tech companies on the hook for “significant potential damages” if they were found negligent in failing to keep kids safe from online predators.

Eby says the case of Carson Cleland, a 12-year-old from Prince George, B.C., who took his own life last year after being targeted by a predator on Snapchat, was “horrific and totally preventable.”

He says social media apps are “nothing special,” and should be held to the same child safety standards as anyone who operates a place that invites young people, whether it’s an amusement park, a playground or an online platform.

In a progress report released Tuesday about the province’s engagement with big tech companies including Google, Meta, TikTok, Spapchat and X, formerly known as Twitter, the provincial government says the companies are implementing changes, including a “trusted flagger” option to quickly remove intimate images.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024

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