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OPEC+ Shock Revives Oil Bulls Even as Demand Warnings Flash

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(Bloomberg) — OPEC+’s surprise oil-production cut sent shock waves through financial markets and pushed crude prices up by the most in a year. Now that the dust has started to settle, one question looms large: Will that price rally stick, or fade away?

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Banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to RBC Capital Markets LLC raised their oil-price forecasts immediately after the OPEC+ cut. Yet, many traders still believe a souring economic outlook will block the group’s actions from pushing prices higher. Demand indicators are also starting to flash warning signs.

It could end up being the ultimate test of what matters more to the market: tighter supplies, or the lackluster demand picture. That will likely bring more uncertainty over the direction of prices — a complicated development for the Federal Reserve and the world’s central bankers in their ongoing battle against inflation.

“It’s a very hard market to trade right now,” said Livia Gallarati, a senior analyst at Energy Aspects. “If you’re a trader, you are pulled between what’s happening at a macroeconomic level and what’s happening fundamentally. It’s two different directions.”

Read More: OPEC+ Shock Cut Aims to Make Oil Speculators Think Twice

One thing that is certain: A major shift of market control into the hands of Saudi Arabia and its allies has now been cemented, with huge implications for geopolitics and the world’s economy.

Investors have continued to reward US drillers for production discipline, making it unlikely that shale companies will ever again undertake the kind of disruptive growth that helped to keep energy inflation tame last decade. That leaves the oil market under the purview of OPEC+ at a time when some experts have predicted that demand is heading to a record.

“The surprise OPEC cuts have already triggered fears of a resurgence in inflation,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, a lead index trader at commodities brokerages Marex Group Plc. “These renewed inflation concerns should only increase” in the months ahead, he said.

Here is an overview of what traders will be watching in the oil market.

Summer Demand

The timing of OPEC’s decision has struck an odd chord for many oil experts.

The production cuts don’t take effect until May, and much of the repercussions are likely to be felt in the second half of the year. That’s a time when oil demand typically reaches its seasonal peak, partly thanks to the busy summer driving season in the US. It’s also the point when China’s economic reopening is expected to start swinging into full gear, further underpinning demand.

Typically, OPEC would want to take advantage of that consumption burst by selling into the market as much as possible. Instead, the cut means the cartel is holding back. That’s sparking debate about whether the move will end up driving oil prices to $100 a barrel as demand surges, or whether, instead, the cartel and its allies are preparing for a recession-marked summer of tepid consumption.

“While OPEC+ cuts on the surface are generally seen as bullish, it does also raise concerns over the demand outlook,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. “If OPEC+ were confident in a strong demand outlook this year, would they really feel the need to cut supply?”

Moves in global fuel markets underscore the demand skepticism. While oil prices rallied, moves for refined products were less pronounced, shrinking margins for refiners across Europe and the US. In Asia, prices of diesel, a key refinery product, are signaling heightened slowdown concerns as timespreads shrink to their lowest since November.

Elevated Stockpiles

While US inventories have been declining, global inventories are still high.

In the first quarter, commercial oil stockpiles held in OECD countries were sitting about 8% above last year’s levels, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration. That’s a fairly sizeable buffer and a sign of the weakness in consumption that’s plagued the market in the past few months.

“You do need to chew through that overhang first before we can see we upside,” said Gallarati of Energy Aspects.

Russian Flows

Oil bulls have waited in vain for a Russian output cut promised for March to show up. The Kremlin said it would slash production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in retaliation for import bans and price caps imposed by “unfriendly countries.” But there’s been no sign of lower Russian output showing up in the one measure that matters to global crude markets — the number of barrels leaving the country.

Crude shipments from Russia’s ports hit a new high in the final week of March, topping 4 million barrels a day. That’s 45% higher than the average seen in the eight weeks before Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine and has been boosted by the diversion since January of about 500,000 barrels a day delivered by pipeline directly to Poland and Germany.

Shale’s Production Discipline

It wasn’t long ago that there were two major players that oil traders turned to for direction over supplies: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the US shale industry.

At the time, OPEC and shale were locked in a battle for market share. It was a feud that helped to keep global oil prices — and energy-driven inflation — at bay for the better part of decade.

Then the pandemic hit, and with it an oil price rout that suffocated the shale industry. For the last three years, even as the market recovered and cash flow surged, companies have prioritized dividends and share buybacks over new drilling. It’s been a winning strategy. Since March 2020, the S&P 500 Energy Sector Index has surged almost 200%, outpacing the S&P 500’s nearly 60% gain.

Now, as calls for peak shale output gather pace, OPEC has one less factor to consider when making supply decisions.

That’s a sore spot for President Joe Biden, who was quick to downplay the impact of the decision by the cartel and its allies to cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day. Biden vowed after an initial production cut last year that there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia, but the administration has yet to follow through.

Read More: Investors Unloaded Saudi Arabian Bonds After Surprise OPEC+ Move

Futures Curve

Talk of $100 oil has been buzzing since the end of last year, but it seems like the can keeps getting kicked down the road. First, some analysts had predicted prices would reach that threshold in the second quarter of 2023. The view got pushed into the second half of the year, and now even some of the bigger bulls aren’t expecting the magic number to come into play until 2024.

The oil futures curve is reflecting those expectations. Prices for contracts tied to deliveries as far out as December 2024 and 2025 have rallied, even as benchmark front-month futures are starting to ease.

“The OPEC+ output cut certainly raises the possibility of $100 a barrel this year, although it is by no means a certainty,” said Harry Altham, an analyst at brokerage StoneX. “Demand-side weakness stemming from growth considerations is clearly taking a more prominent role.”

–With assistance from Julian Lee, Grant Smith, Chunzi Xu, Kevin Crowley and Mitchell Ferman.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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