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Opinion: Banning Russian oil exports might hurt Europe far more than the U.S. or Russia – and Vladimir Putin knows that – The Globe and Mail

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The shadow of a worker next to a logo of Russia’s Rosneft oil company, in Nefteyugansk, Russia, on Aug. 4, 2016.Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters

Just under two years ago, when the global economy was pretty much shut down in the panicky first wave of the pandemic, oil prices actually went below zero. On Monday, they shot north of US$130 a barrel and almost hit US$140 at one point.

Natural gas prices rallied by 30 per cent, reaching an all-time high. According to Bloomberg, the benchmark Dutch wholesale price reached US$470 a barrel oil equivalent. That is not a typo.

The latest price driver?

Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was on a whirlwind tour of NATO countries in Eastern Europe, told the media that the White House was in “very active discussions” with European allies about banning Russian oil exports to the United States and Europe. An oil export ban has bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress.

His admission put the energy markets into near panic. While many energy strategists and analysts suspected that soaring prices were inevitable as the war in Ukraine war entered an ugly phase dominated by the bombardment of cities, others thought that prices would not explode because Western governments would be forever reluctant to ban a crucial source of energy: Russia is the world’s third-largest energy producer.

You can’t blame the doubters. As recently as last Thursday, the White House was playing down the likelihood of slapping an oil-export ban on Russia. And Europe, which has few domestic reserves of oil and natural gas, was resisting a ban. Russian energy exports had been exempt from sanctions, still are – but for how much longer?

In recent days, the moral argument to ban oil, and possibly gas, exports began to displace the economic argument to keep Russian exports untouched to protect families and business from a price shock. That position became increasingly untenable because energy exports are financing Russia’s war in Ukraine, to the point of cringing moral absurdity: as energy prices rose, Russia earned more export revenue to pay for its destruction of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, summed it up succinctly when he said Russian oil “smells of Ukrainian blood.”

A US$10 increase in oil prices boosts Russia’s current account inflow by about US$20-billion a year. For Russia, war had never been so profitable. Oil of the Brent crude variety is now up 80 per cent in a year – gas far more – and energy accounts for about half of Russian exports. Now you know why Kremlin dwellers are smiling, or were until Mr. Blinken said that sanctions on Russian oil might be coming.

The question is whether an oil, and possibly a gas, export ban would hurt the West as much as Russia. What we know already is that the pain on Europe would greatly exceed the pain on the United States and Canada.

Thanks to the shale oil boom, the United States is a net exporter of crude oil and oil products (that is, it exports more than it imports), though not by a large amount. Since Russian crude oil imports are about 3 per cent of total American oil imports, banning them would hurt Americans only a bit.

Europe is not so blessed with homegrown supplies, which explains its reluctance to go whole hog on an import ban. According to the International Energy Agency, about 60 per cent of Russian oil exports go to Europe, and those exports account for a third of Europe’s oil demand (in November, Europe imported 4.5-million barrels a day of oil and oil products from Russia).

Europe is overly dependent on Russian gas, too, and the prospect of European gas shortages has put the gas markets into a tizzy. Royal Bank Capital Markets said Monday that gas futures for delivery in Europe or Britain were trading at 20 times to their U.S. equivalents. The enormous transatlantic price differential was not just a short-term phenomenon. One year out, European price futures were trading at five times higher than U.S. gas futures.

So Europe will enter the house of pain if Russian oil or gas exports are curtailed, let alone banned. The United States, not so much. Europe might even go into recession, since more often than not, soaring energy prices have preceded recessions. Certainly, inflation will remain high.

What about Russia?

There is no doubt a North American and European export ban would hurt. Already, the Russian energy markets are in trouble even though energy remains exempt from sanctions. According to Energy Intelligence, Russian oil exports had fallen by a third or more by last week even though Russian crude sells at a significant discount to Brent crude. Banking sanctions are behind the sharp downturn, plus the country’s pariah status. If non-Russian oil can be found, it will be bought.

To be sure, a European oil embargo would really hurt Russia – if it comes. Europe is so highly dependent on Russian oil and gas and a full import ban seems unlikely, perhaps even economically impossible. For Europe, the ugly reality is that many big European countries, especially Germany and Italy, slept-walked into creating economies that became ever more dependent on Russian energy exports, to the point Germany is shutting its nuclear reactors.

Yes an oil export ban will hurt Russia, but it will hurt Europe even more. Mr. Putin knows this.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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