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Opinion: Big banks' loans to real estate developers are not shaping up to be as risky as feared – The Globe and Mail

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In 2018, Bank of Montreal backed investors who paid $173-million for a property at the corner of two busy Vancouver streets. Last July, the owners stopped making interest payments, and in January, BMO put the project into receivership.CHRIS WATTIE/Reuters

Bank of Montreal BMO-T is caught up in a messy battle over the future of a planned 55-storey condominium tower in downtown Vancouver.

At first glance, it’s a fight that feeds fears of a meltdown in all the big banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios. BMO backed a flashy development that’s now worth far less than the $169-million of debt the project accumulated over the past five years.

Dig a little deeper into British Columbia court filings, and it becomes clear BMO is willing and able to do what it takes to ensure the bank gets repaid, in full, on a bad loan. That’s consistent with what analysts are now saying about all the banks: In all but the worst case scenarios, losses on real estate lending will be manageable, and far lower than what’s currently forecast.

BMO’s problem loan in Vancouver is a case study for what’s playing out on office, retail and residential projects across the country.

In 2018, with interest rates low and condo construction booming, BMO backed investors who paid $173-million for a property at the corner of two busy Vancouver streets: Haro and Thurlow. Their plans to build a 516-unit development got hung up at city council, in part over concerns the tower will block mountain views. Last July, the owners stopped making interest payments.

In January, BMO put the project into receivership. Court documents reveal the property’s seven creditors, including lenders based in China, are at odds over how to move forward. The city’s assessed value on the property is just $98-million.

Court filings show while some lenders may take a bath, BMO’s $82.2-million loan is likely to be paid in full. The bank’s claim ranks ahead of other creditors. It has the court’s blessing to start a sales process in late February and accept offers in April. Last year, a rival Vancouver real estate company, Chard Development Ltd., bid $93-million for the property, which the former owners turned down.

If the receiver – Deloitte – can sell the Vancouver property and BMO’s loan is repaid, the impact on the bank’s problem loan portfolio is significant. In the most recent quarter, BMO set aside a total of $446-million for credit losses.

If all the banks match BMO’s experience in downtown Vancouver, and come through this real estate cycle with relatively modest loan losses, it would come as a pleasant surprise to investors and regulators.

Last October, federal regulators at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions updated their risk outlook for the banks and flagged mounting problems in commercial real estate as a major concern. Those well-founded fears weighed heavy on the share prices of all Canada’s banks.

Since last fall, sentiment around loan losses has improved, and the banks’ stock prices have jumped. After a RBC Capital Markets investor conference in January that saw all the bank chief executives make presentations, analyst Darko Mihelic said in a report that “the banks expect provisions for credit losses (PCLs) to continue to normalize, but not revert to peak levels seen in previous recessionary environments.”

He added: “While commercial real estate losses and potential concerns about mortgage renewal shock still persist, investor concern regarding PCLs is not as high as is typical, likely reflecting a consensus call for a ‘soft landing.’”

Working out bad loans can mean a brawl between borrower and bank. It’s a contentious, time-consuming process. Expertise in restructuring loans – a skill set that was seldom required over the past decade, when rates were low – is now essential at every bank and corporate law firm. Lenders have to be willing to occasionally seize the keys of properties they never wanted to own.

There’s a wonderful chapter in Tom Wolfe’s novel, A Man In Full, detailing a hard-nosed banker’s boardroom showdown with a debt-heavy Atlanta developer. The session leaves the borrower soaked in sweat after making numerous concessions and giving up most of his fortune.

Similar scenes are now playing out in Vancouver boardrooms, and with developers across the country. And the banks are winning these battles.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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